Ethereum above ___ on March 31?
Crypto|$6,617 Vol|
time5 days 12 hrs

Ethereum above ___ on March 31? - AI Found +17.6¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+17.6¢
2,000(No)
+15.1¢
1,900(No)
+14¢
2,100(No)

Ethereum above ___ on March 31? AI analysis: • +17.6¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Epstein "I beat Bush" Email unredacted by March 31?
Politics|$31.9k Vol|
time4 days 20 hrs

Epstein "I beat Bush" Email unredacted by March 31?

Top Undervalued
+1.3¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 5 days remaining until the March 31 deadline, the probability of 'Yes' remains at a t...
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Exotics
This is a highly specific 'political/legal gossip' niche. It focuses on the redaction status of a single email within a massive case file, rather than a mainstream election or policy outcome, making it a granular and novelty-driven topic.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page, and given the low liquidity of ~$2,200, critically analyze the current bid-ask spread and order depth. Combine this with any updates from Rep. Ro Khanna since Feb 12 to reassess if current odds are fair.
US downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31?
Geopolitics|$15.1k Vol|
time4 days 20 hrs

US downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31?

Top Undervalued
+0.8¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 5 days remaining until the March 31 resolution, the time window for a 'Yes' event is ...
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Rule Risk
Rule clarity is moderate. While 'downs or disables' is relatively clear, the condition 'broadly attributed to a Mexican cartel' could be contentious in practice. If a small drone is downed, officials might not issue a specific attribution statement, or media reports might be vague, leading to resolution difficulties. Furthermore, ensuring the definition of 'federal government' covers routine operations by agencies like CBP is crucial, though they are federal.
Exotics
This is a relatively niche and specific event prediction. While drone issues at the US-Mexico border are growing, betting specifically on 'whether the US government will use kinetic or electronic warfare to down a drone within a specific short timeframe' falls into an unconventional political/military sub-category, not a mainstream topic.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest news on US border drone incursions, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and user discussions regarding the 'definition of downing', and update the fair value assessment for the 'Yes' outcome.
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by March 31?
Trump|$30.2k Vol|
time4 days 20 hrs

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by March 31?

Top Undervalued
+0.2¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 5 days remaining until the March 31 settlement, there are no breaking news or adminis...
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Hedging
BGC
CFG
As Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick's tenure primarily affects US trade policy and business sentiment. His sudden departure could be interpreted by the market as a sign of instability or a shift in direction (e.g., tariff policies) within the Trump administration, potentially causing short-term volatility in the broader market (S&P 500) and the Dollar Index (DXY). Additionally, given Lutnick's deep ties to Cantor Fitzgerald and BGC Partners (BGC), changes in his political career could directly impact the stock prices of these associated companies.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Visit the Polymarket page for 'Howard Lutnick out by March 31' to analyze the order book depth and recent volume; combine this with the latest news on Commerce Department personnel changes to assess whether the current odds reflect genuine resignation risk or just market noise.
Services Down Parlay
Business|$13.1k Vol|
time4 days 20 hrs

Services Down Parlay

Top Undervalued
+23.4¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Despite localized Cloudflare issues on March 24-25 (including API service degradation and Network Er...
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Rule Risk
This market is a high-risk 'parlay' bet requiring AWS, Discord, and Cloudflare to **ALL** experience severe incidents within the timeframe to resolve YES. The main risk lies in the definitions of 'Critical Incident' and 'Disrupted'. While usually based on official status pages, there is ambiguity in what qualifies (e.g., is a regional outage sufficient? minimum duration?). Furthermore, the requirement that *all three* conditions be met significantly lowers the probability of YES, which casual users might overlook.
Exotics
While internet service outages are common topics, bundling faults from three specific infrastructure giants (AWS, Discord, Cloudflare) into a parlay bet represents a novel derivative design. It's not purely absurd (like an alien invasion) but differs from traditional single-event predictions, adding a layer of gamification and specificity.
Movers
March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' spiked from 14.75c to 24.25c. The reason is that Cloudflare experienced regional network and API logging issues on March 24-25, causing a surge in DownDetector reports and leading some traders to speculate it might trigger a 'Yes' resolution. March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' corrected from 25.4c to 15.4c. The reason is the market realizing no actual Cloudflare critical incident occurred, and panic subsided. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' spiked from 6.6c to 25.4c. The reason is a likely 'hallucinated' panic: search data reveals Cloudflare had a major outage on March 21, 2025, and traders or algorithms likely confused the year, reacting to old news.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this 'Services Down Parlay' (Volume: $2244). Given the low liquidity, analyze the bid-ask spread and depth. Combine this with the technical architecture of AWS, Discord, and Cloudflare to assess the intrinsic correlation of all three experiencing a 'Critical Incident' before March 31, 2026 (are they independent events or susceptible to a shared upstream failure?), and derive whether the current odds represent a significant pricing error.
#1 song on US Spotify this week? (March 27)
Culture|$18.2k Vol|
time20 hrs 17 mins

#1 song on US Spotify this week? (March 27)

Top Undervalued
+7.9¢
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley(Yes)
+6.5¢
Babydoll - Dominic Fike(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest Kworb US Spotify Daily chart data (as of March 22), Dominic Fike's 'Babydoll...
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Movers
March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, 'Babydoll - Dominic Fike' surged from 38c to 81c as Kworb data confirmed it took the #1 spot on the US Spotify Daily chart on Sunday (22nd), solidifying its lead for the weekly title. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, 'Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley' crashed from 51c to 9c because, despite holding #2 daily, it lost the top spot to 'Babydoll' and the market realized it cannot close the gap in the remaining days. March 20, 2026 - March 24, 2026, 'Stateside' dropped continuously from 48c to 6c as the previous week's winner naturally faded from contention. March 23, 2026, 'Lemon Pound Cake - Afroman' saw a freak spike to 47.5c (before returning to near zero), likely a 'fat finger' error or liquidity glitch.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the 'March 27 US Spotify Weekly Top Song' event to analyze the Order Book, user discussions, and liquidity depth, updating the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
2,000
YesNo
82¢
18¢
64.4¢
35.6¢
0¢
+17.6¢
1,900
YesNo
94¢
6¢
78.9¢
21.1¢
0¢
+15.1¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0150, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0230, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 3: Weekly Price Change, 0.0550, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 4: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0230, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 5: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0130, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases

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