Ethereum above ___ on May 22? - AI Found +18.4¢ Mispricing

Crypto|$86.2k Vol|

1 days 19 hrs

Ethereum above ___ on May 22? - AI Found +18.4¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+18.4¢

2,100(Yes)

+8.9¢

2,200(Yes)

+6.4¢

2,000(Yes)

Ethereum above ___ on May 22? AI analysis: • +18.4¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

football|$28.6k Vol|

Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?

Top Undervalued

Denver Broncos(No)

Cleveland Browns(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The Yes prices for all teams are irrationally inflated to 45-51 cents, leading to a total implied pr...

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The market prices imply a total probability of over 1500%, which is mathematically impossible and completely contradicts any expert prediction or common sense. Mainstream consensus is that he will only go to one team, most likely a contender like the 49ers, rather than every team having a ~50% chance of signing him.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?', analyze the order book spreads and liquidity depth given the extremely low volume ($352), and update the fair value assessment of 'Los Angeles Chargers' vs. potential landing spots (or 'Other') based on recent team roster news.

Politics|$323.3k Vol|

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Top Undervalued

Shutdown & Democratic Party(Yes)

Shutdown & Republican Party(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Since the government shutdown in January 2026 was confirmed, this market has effectively become a di...

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The market combines two independent conditions with a significant time gap. The major risk is that the 'Shutdown' deadline (Jan 31, 2026) occurs long before the 'House Election' (Nov 2026). If no shutdown occurs by Jan 31, both 'Shutdown & ...' options technically fail early, potentially leaving the market in a zombie state or resolving to 'No' well before the election. Furthermore, given the current simulated date is Feb 2026, the first condition's outcome might already be determined, creating confusion around the timeline.

This is a combinatorial market (conditional) binding a macro policy risk ('Government Shutdown') with a political outcome ('Midterm Elections'). While both separate events are standard political topics, combining them creates a specific scenario bet (implying correlation between shutdown and election results), making it slightly more complex and artificial than single events.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the conditional opportunity cost for this bet: if a Shutdown occurs, capital is locked until November 2026 (House Election); if no Shutdown occurs, capital likely unlocks in February. Compare this against the risk-free yield of DeFi stablecoins (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine the required risk premium needed to justify the potential 10-month lock-up period if the first condition is met.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and compare the prices of the 'Shutdown & House Winner' combo options against the standalone 'House Winner 2026' market. Mathematically isolate the implied probability of the 'Government Shutdown by Jan 31' event from these prices. Combine this with the latest bipartisan budget negotiation status to assess if there is an arbitrage opportunity or mispricing due to liquidity mismatches in this combo market.

[Category 1: Key Timeline Check] Search for the current expiration schedule of US congressional Continuing Resolutions (CRs) to see if there is a critical budget cliff aligning with the January 31, 2026 deadline. Verify the congressional calendar, specifically analyzing 'Lame Duck' sessions or early new-Congress recesses, to determine if procedural delays create a technical risk of a shutdown due to lack of legislative time.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the conditional opportunity cost for this bet: if a Shutdown occurs, capital is locked until November 2026 (House Election); if no Shutdown occurs, capital likely unlocks in February. Compare this against the risk-free yield of DeFi stablecoins (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine the required risk premium needed to justify the potential 10-month lock-up period if the first condition is met.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and compare the prices of the 'Shutdown & House Winner' combo options against the standalone 'House Winner 2026' market. Mathematically isolate the implied probability of the 'Government Shutdown by Jan 31' event from these prices. Combine this with the latest bipartisan budget negotiation status to assess if there is an arbitrage opportunity or mispricing due to liquidity mismatches in this combo market.

Tech|$327.0k Vol|

Gemini 3.2 released on...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market continues to strongly price in a May 19 release for Gemini 3.2, with the option's price s...

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The rules strictly define what qualifies as 'Gemini 3.2', explicitly excluding modality-specific models (video, image, etc.) or pure GA promotions. The risk lies in Google potentially releasing a model with an unexpected naming convention, which might seem to qualify common-sensically but triggers a 'No' resolution based on the rule's fine print.

The release cadence of Gemini 3.2 is directly tied to Google's competitiveness in the generative AI space. An on-time or early release could have a moderate positive impact on GOOGL stock (roughly a 3-5% move) as it demonstrates technological progress, whereas delays could be negative. The material impact on the broader market (Nasdaq 100) would be negligible.

Explain the resolution rules for the Gemini 3.2 market in simple terms: what exactly qualifies as a 'Gemini 3.2' release, and why would closed betas or specialized models like Veo or Lyria be explicitly excluded?

Sports|$105.6k Vol|

153 days 11 hrs

Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

LeBron James is currently continuing his career and has strong incentives (such as waiting for his s...

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[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Commercial Incentive & Farewell Tour Analysis: Analyze LeBron's business model as a superstar (Nike deals, media attention) to determine if he is more likely to retire abruptly or announce a 'Farewell Tour' and play through the 2026-2027 season. If he announces 'next season will be my last', how will this resolve under the market rules (Yes or No), and what is the risk of holding positions based on this distinction?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?'. Given the volume of ~$12.9k, analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spread to assess liquidity risk. Combine this with recent Lakers performance, the tone of LeBron's post-game interviews, and latest rumors to determine if the current odds are overreacting or offer arbitrage opportunities.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Variables Confirmation (Father-Son Narrative): Search for the specific details of LeBron James's contract for the 2026-2027 season (e.g., Player Option status). Also, verify the high school graduation and NBA draft eligibility timeline for his younger son, Bryce James, to validate if the 'waiting to play with Bryce' narrative creates a substantial barrier to him retiring in 2026.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Commercial Incentive & Farewell Tour Analysis: Analyze LeBron's business model as a superstar (Nike deals, media attention) to determine if he is more likely to retire abruptly or announce a 'Farewell Tour' and play through the 2026-2027 season. If he announces 'next season will be my last', how will this resolve under the market rules (Yes or No), and what is the risk of holding positions based on this distinction?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?'. Given the volume of ~$12.9k, analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spread to assess liquidity risk. Combine this with recent Lakers performance, the tone of LeBron's post-game interviews, and latest rumors to determine if the current odds are overreacting or offer arbitrage opportunities.

Elections|$105.1k Vol|

Venice Mayoral Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Andrea Martella(Yes)

Simone Venturini(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 5 days left until the 2026 Venice mayoral election, prices remain largely unchanged f...

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What do the latest local polling numbers indicate for key candidates like Andrea Martella and Simone Venturini, and how do they compare to the current Polymarket odds for the Venice mayoral election?

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

2,100

YesNo

55¢

47¢

73.4¢

26.6¢

+18.4¢

0¢

2,200

YesNo

14¢

87¢

22.9¢

77.1¢

+8.9¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Negative Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, -0.0080, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Negative Factor 2: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0050, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Negative Factor 3: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0060, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Negative Factor 4: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, -0.0420, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Negative Factor 5: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0550, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

football|$28.6k Vol|

Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?

Top Undervalued

Denver Broncos(No)

Cleveland Browns(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The Yes prices for all teams are irrationally inflated to 45-51 cents, leading to a total implied pr...

🔓 Log in to see more

The market prices imply a total probability of over 1500%, which is mathematically impossible and completely contradicts any expert prediction or common sense. Mainstream consensus is that he will only go to one team, most likely a contender like the 49ers, rather than every team having a ~50% chance of signing him.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?', analyze the order book spreads and liquidity depth given the extremely low volume ($352), and update the fair value assessment of 'Los Angeles Chargers' vs. potential landing spots (or 'Other') based on recent team roster news.

Politics|$323.3k Vol|

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Top Undervalued

Shutdown & Democratic Party(Yes)

Shutdown & Republican Party(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Since the government shutdown in January 2026 was confirmed, this market has effectively become a di...

🔓 Log in to see more

The market combines two independent conditions with a significant time gap. The major risk is that the 'Shutdown' deadline (Jan 31, 2026) occurs long before the 'House Election' (Nov 2026). If no shutdown occurs by Jan 31, both 'Shutdown & ...' options technically fail early, potentially leaving the market in a zombie state or resolving to 'No' well before the election. Furthermore, given the current simulated date is Feb 2026, the first condition's outcome might already be determined, creating confusion around the timeline.

This is a combinatorial market (conditional) binding a macro policy risk ('Government Shutdown') with a political outcome ('Midterm Elections'). While both separate events are standard political topics, combining them creates a specific scenario bet (implying correlation between shutdown and election results), making it slightly more complex and artificial than single events.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the conditional opportunity cost for this bet: if a Shutdown occurs, capital is locked until November 2026 (House Election); if no Shutdown occurs, capital likely unlocks in February. Compare this against the risk-free yield of DeFi stablecoins (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine the required risk premium needed to justify the potential 10-month lock-up period if the first condition is met.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and compare the prices of the 'Shutdown & House Winner' combo options against the standalone 'House Winner 2026' market. Mathematically isolate the implied probability of the 'Government Shutdown by Jan 31' event from these prices. Combine this with the latest bipartisan budget negotiation status to assess if there is an arbitrage opportunity or mispricing due to liquidity mismatches in this combo market.

[Category 1: Key Timeline Check] Search for the current expiration schedule of US congressional Continuing Resolutions (CRs) to see if there is a critical budget cliff aligning with the January 31, 2026 deadline. Verify the congressional calendar, specifically analyzing 'Lame Duck' sessions or early new-Congress recesses, to determine if procedural delays create a technical risk of a shutdown due to lack of legislative time.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the conditional opportunity cost for this bet: if a Shutdown occurs, capital is locked until November 2026 (House Election); if no Shutdown occurs, capital likely unlocks in February. Compare this against the risk-free yield of DeFi stablecoins (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine the required risk premium needed to justify the potential 10-month lock-up period if the first condition is met.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and compare the prices of the 'Shutdown & House Winner' combo options against the standalone 'House Winner 2026' market. Mathematically isolate the implied probability of the 'Government Shutdown by Jan 31' event from these prices. Combine this with the latest bipartisan budget negotiation status to assess if there is an arbitrage opportunity or mispricing due to liquidity mismatches in this combo market.

Tech|$327.0k Vol|

Gemini 3.2 released on...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market continues to strongly price in a May 19 release for Gemini 3.2, with the option's price s...

🔓 Log in to see more

The rules strictly define what qualifies as 'Gemini 3.2', explicitly excluding modality-specific models (video, image, etc.) or pure GA promotions. The risk lies in Google potentially releasing a model with an unexpected naming convention, which might seem to qualify common-sensically but triggers a 'No' resolution based on the rule's fine print.

The release cadence of Gemini 3.2 is directly tied to Google's competitiveness in the generative AI space. An on-time or early release could have a moderate positive impact on GOOGL stock (roughly a 3-5% move) as it demonstrates technological progress, whereas delays could be negative. The material impact on the broader market (Nasdaq 100) would be negligible.

Explain the resolution rules for the Gemini 3.2 market in simple terms: what exactly qualifies as a 'Gemini 3.2' release, and why would closed betas or specialized models like Veo or Lyria be explicitly excluded?

Sports|$105.6k Vol|

153 days 11 hrs

Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

LeBron James is currently continuing his career and has strong incentives (such as waiting for his s...

🔓 Log in to see more

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Commercial Incentive & Farewell Tour Analysis: Analyze LeBron's business model as a superstar (Nike deals, media attention) to determine if he is more likely to retire abruptly or announce a 'Farewell Tour' and play through the 2026-2027 season. If he announces 'next season will be my last', how will this resolve under the market rules (Yes or No), and what is the risk of holding positions based on this distinction?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?'. Given the volume of ~$12.9k, analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spread to assess liquidity risk. Combine this with recent Lakers performance, the tone of LeBron's post-game interviews, and latest rumors to determine if the current odds are overreacting or offer arbitrage opportunities.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Variables Confirmation (Father-Son Narrative): Search for the specific details of LeBron James's contract for the 2026-2027 season (e.g., Player Option status). Also, verify the high school graduation and NBA draft eligibility timeline for his younger son, Bryce James, to validate if the 'waiting to play with Bryce' narrative creates a substantial barrier to him retiring in 2026.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Commercial Incentive & Farewell Tour Analysis: Analyze LeBron's business model as a superstar (Nike deals, media attention) to determine if he is more likely to retire abruptly or announce a 'Farewell Tour' and play through the 2026-2027 season. If he announces 'next season will be my last', how will this resolve under the market rules (Yes or No), and what is the risk of holding positions based on this distinction?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?'. Given the volume of ~$12.9k, analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spread to assess liquidity risk. Combine this with recent Lakers performance, the tone of LeBron's post-game interviews, and latest rumors to determine if the current odds are overreacting or offer arbitrage opportunities.

Elections|$105.1k Vol|

Venice Mayoral Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Andrea Martella(Yes)

Simone Venturini(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 5 days left until the 2026 Venice mayoral election, prices remain largely unchanged f...

🔓 Log in to see more

What do the latest local polling numbers indicate for key candidates like Andrea Martella and Simone Venturini, and how do they compare to the current Polymarket odds for the Venice mayoral election?

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Ethereum above ___ on May 22? - AI Found +18.4¢ Mispricing