All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Cincinnati Bengals
YesNo
Kansas City Chiefs
YesNo
Miami Dolphins
YesNo
Baltimore Ravens
YesNo
Los Angeles Rams
YesNo
Philadelphia Eagles
YesNo
Chicago Bears
YesNo
Seattle Seahawks
YesNo
Detroit Lions
YesNo
Buffalo Bills
YesNo
New York Jets
YesNo
San Francisco 49ers
YesNo
Green Bay Packers
YesNo
Minnesota Vikings
YesNo
New England Patriots
YesNo
Dallas Cowboys
YesNo
Cleveland Browns
YesNo
New York Giants
YesNo
Las Vegas Raiders
YesNo
New Orleans Saints
YesNo
Indianapolis Colts
YesNo
Arizona Cardinals
YesNo
Tennessee Titans
YesNo
Carolina Panthers
YesNo
Los Angeles Chargers
YesNo
Pittsburgh Steelers
YesNo
Washington Commanders
YesNo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
YesNo
Houston Texans
YesNo
Denver Broncos
YesNo
Atlanta Falcons
YesNo
Jacksonville Jaguars
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.04 15:39 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The current market pricing is severely distorted, with the sum of 'Yes' prices far exceeding 100% (approx. 750%), implying that almost every option is massively overvalued. Fundamentally, Joey Bosa played the 2025 season with the Buffalo Bills; while decent, injury concerns and cap constraints suggest he may not re-sign, making him a free agent. Mainstream media (e.g., SportsIllustrated, CBS) and analysts strongly favor a reunion with his brother Nick Bosa at the San Francisco 49ers, followed by contenders like the Detroit Lions or Baltimore Ravens. The market leaders, New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks, lack strong exclusive reporting to justify their >30% implied probabilities, likely reflecting a mismatch based on cap space speculation rather than credible rumors.
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market prices imply the New York Jets (31%) and Seattle Seahawks (30.5%) are the frontrunners, which completely contradicts mainstream sports media consensus. Media widely views the San Francisco 49ers (currently 24.5%) as the most likely landing spot, followed by the Buffalo Bills (25.5%) or Detroit Lions. The market pricing appears to be algorithmically generated based on cap space rather than genuine news reporting or insider information.
