Ethereum above ___ on May 23?
Crypto|$61.4k Vol|
time2 days 19 hrs

Ethereum above ___ on May 23? - AI Found +27.9¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+27.9¢
2,100(No)
+7.1¢
2,200(No)
+0.1¢
2,400(Yes)

Ethereum above ___ on May 23? AI analysis: • +27.9¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?
football|$28.6k Vol|
time102 days 3 hrs

Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?

Top Undervalued
+52¢
Denver Broncos(No)
+49.5¢
Cleveland Browns(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The Yes prices for all teams are irrationally inflated to 45-51 cents, leading to a total implied pr...
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Divergence
The market prices imply a total probability of over 1500%, which is mathematically impossible and completely contradicts any expert prediction or common sense. Mainstream consensus is that he will only go to one team, most likely a contender like the 49ers, rather than every team having a ~50% chance of signing him.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?', analyze the order book spreads and liquidity depth given the extremely low volume ($352), and update the fair value assessment of 'Los Angeles Chargers' vs. potential landing spots (or 'Other') based on recent team roster news.
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
Politics|$323.3k Vol|
time166 days 3 hrs

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Top Undervalued
+2.4¢
Shutdown & Democratic Party(Yes)
+0.6¢
Shutdown & Republican Party(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Since the government shutdown in January 2026 was confirmed, this market has effectively become a di...
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Rule Risk
The market combines two independent conditions with a significant time gap. The major risk is that the 'Shutdown' deadline (Jan 31, 2026) occurs long before the 'House Election' (Nov 2026). If no shutdown occurs by Jan 31, both 'Shutdown & ...' options technically fail early, potentially leaving the market in a zombie state or resolving to 'No' well before the election. Furthermore, given the current simulated date is Feb 2026, the first condition's outcome might already be determined, creating confusion around the timeline.
Exotics
This is a combinatorial market (conditional) binding a macro policy risk ('Government Shutdown') with a political outcome ('Midterm Elections'). While both separate events are standard political topics, combining them creates a specific scenario bet (implying correlation between shutdown and election results), making it slightly more complex and artificial than single events.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and compare the prices of the 'Shutdown & House Winner' combo options against the standalone 'House Winner 2026' market. Mathematically isolate the implied probability of the 'Government Shutdown by Jan 31' event from these prices. Combine this with the latest bipartisan budget negotiation status to assess if there is an arbitrage opportunity or mispricing due to liquidity mismatches in this combo market.
Gemini 3.2 released on...?
Tech|$327.0k Vol|
time10 days 3 hrs

Gemini 3.2 released on...?

Top Undervalued
+0.6¢
May 20(No)
+0.6¢
May 22(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market continues to strongly price in a May 19 release for Gemini 3.2, with the option's price s...
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Rule Risk
The rules strictly define what qualifies as 'Gemini 3.2', explicitly excluding modality-specific models (video, image, etc.) or pure GA promotions. The risk lies in Google potentially releasing a model with an unexpected naming convention, which might seem to qualify common-sensically but triggers a 'No' resolution based on the rule's fine print.
Hedging
GOOGL
The release cadence of Gemini 3.2 is directly tied to Google's competitiveness in the generative AI space. An on-time or early release could have a moderate positive impact on GOOGL stock (roughly a 3-5% move) as it demonstrates technological progress, whereas delays could be negative. The material impact on the broader market (Nasdaq 100) would be negligible.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution rules for the Gemini 3.2 market in simple terms: what exactly qualifies as a 'Gemini 3.2' release, and why would closed betas or specialized models like Veo or Lyria be explicitly excluded?
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?
Sports|$105.6k Vol|
time153 days 11 hrs

Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
LeBron James is currently continuing his career and has strong incentives (such as waiting for his s...
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AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?'. Given the volume of ~$12.9k, analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spread to assess liquidity risk. Combine this with recent Lakers performance, the tone of LeBron's post-game interviews, and latest rumors to determine if the current odds are overreacting or offer arbitrage opportunities.
Venice Mayoral Election Winner
Elections|$105.1k Vol|
time4 days 3 hrs

Venice Mayoral Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
Andrea Martella(Yes)
+0.5¢
Simone Venturini(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 5 days left until the 2026 Venice mayoral election, prices remain largely unchanged f...
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AI Analysis
What do the latest local polling numbers indicate for key candidates like Andrea Martella and Simone Venturini, and how do they compare to the current Polymarket odds for the Venice mayoral election?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
2,100
YesNo
74¢
32¢
40.1¢
59.9¢
0¢
+27.9¢
2,200
YesNo
20¢
84¢
8.9¢
91.1¢
0¢
+7.1¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Negative Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0530, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0680, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Negative Factor 3: Weekly Price Change, -0.0090, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 4: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, -0.0680, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Negative Factor 5: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, -0.0100, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

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