Ethereum price on April 14?
Crypto|$14.2k Vol|
time2 days 0 hrs

Ethereum price on April 14? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+9.7¢
2,300-2,400(Yes)
+9¢
2,200-2,300(Yes)
+8.2¢
2,000-2,100(No)

Ethereum price on April 14? AI analysis: • +9.7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Who will Justin Bieber feature at Coachella?
Culture|$83.1k Vol|
time6 days 8 hrs

Who will Justin Bieber feature at Coachella?

Top Undervalued
+46¢
Bryson Tiller(No)
+43.5¢
A$AP Rocky(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current 'Yes' prices for many options hovering around 40-50 cents do not reflect actual probabil...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Movers
April 12, 2026, Bad Bunny's price plummeted from 47c to 21.5c within an hour, then rebounded to 35c. This was caused by extremely thin market depth, where a single medium-sized order swept the order book, followed by a partial recovery driven by market makers or arbitrageurs. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, Kanye West's price surged from 8c to 47.4c. This was not due to an increased probability of him appearing, but rather a lack of liquidity; after initial low-priced limit orders were absorbed, the price naturally reverted to the market's illiquid default average of around 50c. April 9, 2026 - April 12, 2026, most other options remained stagnant in the 0.45-0.50 range due to thin trading volume, with no fundamental-driven moves exceeding 10c.
Divergence
There is a severe divergence between market prices and common sense. Polymarket prices imply a coin-flip chance (~50%) for over 10 different artists to appear. However, mainstream entertainment media and fan predictions do not support such an extensive guest list, except for a few close collaborators like Usher. This divergence is entirely mechanical, caused by insufficient market liquidity and the breakdown of AMM mechanisms on obscure options.
AI Analysis
Explain the specific resolution rules for this market—especially what happens if an artist appears during someone else's set instead of Justin Bieber's Coachella performance—like I'm 5.
What will Trump say this week? (April 19)
Mentions|$30.9k Vol|
time6 days 8 hrs

What will Trump say this week? (April 19)

Top Undervalued
+10.5¢
Losing MAGA(Yes)
+7¢
See what happens(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market pricing data (as of April 12), terms like 'Epic Fury', 'Make America Grea...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Rule Risk
There are significant traps and resolution risks. The biggest risk is the explicit exclusion of written text (e.g., Truth Social posts), limiting valid instances to publicly recorded audio/video. Furthermore, verifying that a video was actually filmed (not just posted) within the timeframe, and ruling out AI-generated deepfakes, will greatly increase resolution difficulty and dispute risks.
Exotics
This is a quintessential novelty/entertainment market. The general public or analysts do not typically forecast whether a politician will verbally utter highly specific and dramatic phrases like 'Peanut', 'Gay for Palestine', or 'Epic Fury' within a random week.
Movers
Between April 10, 2026, and April 12, 2026, the price of 'Epic Fury' surged from 62c to 78.5c, as the market expects Trump to highly likely use this strong emotional phrase in upcoming rallies or interviews to describe specific events. Between April 10, 2026, and April 12, 2026, the price of 'Make America Great Again' surged from 60c to 75.5c; as his signature slogan, market confidence significantly recovered with the increase of campaign activities this week. Between April 10, 2026, and April 12, 2026, the price of 'No No No' spiked from 56c to 70.5c, likely due to his frequent use of this phrase for emphasis or denial in recent interviews. Between April 10, 2026, and April 12, 2026, the price of 'Sucker / Loser' rose from 50.5c to 63.5c, typically used to push back against controversial reports or critics.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria for this Trump speech market: do written Truth Social posts, compound words, or AI-generated videos count towards a 'Yes'?
# of seats won by PB in Bulgarian Parliamentary Election?
Elections|$36.3k Vol|
time6 days 8 hrs

# of seats won by PB in Bulgarian Parliamentary Election?

Top Undervalued
+9¢
90-94(No)
+2.6¢
<75(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The sum of current market prices has normalized to approximately 100% (99.7%), correcting the previo...
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Movers
April 9, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 95+ option plunged from 30c to 19c. This was driven by pre-election polls in the final week indicating that the coalition's support has peaked, reducing the likelihood of a landslide victory. April 9, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 85-89 option surged from 18.5c to 27c, absorbing the capital outflow from the extremely high seat expectations and becoming the new consensus center.
AI Analysis
What are the latest polling averages for Progressive Bulgaria (PB) from authoritative sources, and how do these translate to projected parliamentary seats compared to the current Polymarket bracket odds?
Bulgarian Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Elections|$42.9k Vol|
time6 days 8 hrs

Bulgarian Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

Top Undervalued
+1.9¢
Vazrazhdane(Yes)
+1.4¢
APS(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest polling data and election forecasts, former President Radev's newly formed '...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria for this Bulgarian election market in simple terms, specifically detailing how the 'second place' is determined using valid votes and alphabetical order if multiple parties tie on the number of seats won in the National Assembly.
Bulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory
Elections|$29.1k Vol|
time6 days 8 hrs

Bulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory

Top Undervalued
+18¢
PB 10-15%(Yes)
+12.5¢
PB 5-10%(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest April 2026 polls (e.g., Sova Harris, Alpha Research), the new 'Progressive B...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Rule Risk
Moderate risk. The rules feature strict calculation logics for vote margins and specify edge cases (e.g., falling exactly on a boundary resolves to the higher bracket, and unlisted parties winning resolves to 'Other'). If the political party or coalition denoted by 'PB' dissolves or restructures before the election, it could lead to ambiguity and resolution disputes.
Movers
April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of 'PB <5%' surged from 3c to 25c, and 'PB 10-15%' plunged from 34c to 15c, as some investors shifted their bets towards a tighter race. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of 'PB 20%+' plummeted from 20c to 6c, as new polls indicated that while PB maintains a solid lead, a margin exceeding 20% is highly unlikely.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria of this Bulgarian election market using the simplest language (ELI5), specifically detailing how the 'margin of victory' is calculated based on valid votes, and how ties or an unlisted party winning trigger the 'Other' option.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
2,300-2,400
YesNo
12¢
92¢
21.7¢
78.3¢
+9.7¢
0¢
2,200-2,300
YesNo
30¢
74¢
39¢
61¢
+9¢
0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Last Week High Breakout Status, 1.0000, Impact-Intense, Factor description Structural breakout: whether the price breaks above last week highest price (0/1) Positive Factor 2: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.1040, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 3: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0740, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 4: Weekly Price Change, 0.0810, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 5: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0740, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 6: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0190, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases

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