As the resolution date approaches (March 31), weather forecasts have highly converged. The highest t...

Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a specific future date is a niche topic in prediction markets. Unless one is a weather enthusiast or local resident, ordinary people rarely ponder such micro-level questions, though it is not as bizarre as theological or fantasy-based markets.

March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of '24°C' dropped from 29.5c to 14.5c before rebounding to 31.5c, and '22°C' dropped from 33.5c to 19c. This was caused by intraday updates from short-term weather models (like GFS/ECMWF) shifting the expected peak temperature slightly between 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C, leading to sharp probability transfers among the top options. March 29, 2026, the price of '18°C or below' plummeted from 17c to 3c, and '20°C' dropped from 17c to 6.5c. This was driven by updated and more accurate short-term weather forecasts confidently predicting highs above 22°C for April 1, eliminating the likelihood of unseasonably cold temperatures.

With less than 1 day remaining until the April 1 resolution, the latest forecasts from Wunderground ...

March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '19°C or higher' surged from 26.5c to a peak of 63.5c (before settling at 45.5c), and '18°C' surged from 21.5c to 47c (stabilizing at 46.5c after fluctuations). Concurrently, '17°C' dropped significantly from 35c to 10.5c. The reason is that as April 1 approaches, the latest weather forecasts confirmed a strong spring warming trend and southerly winds, locking the likely highest temperature at 18°C or above. However, uncertainties regarding cloud cover and rain timing caused severe expectation swings between 18°C and 19°C. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, options for '10°C' and below crashed from over 15c to near 0c, as updated forecasts completely ruled out the possibility of such extreme low temperatures.

With only two days until resolution, weather forecasting models have reached a strong consensus indi...

While weather derivatives exist in professional finance, predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city on a specific day is somewhat niche and novel for average prediction market participants.

March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026: The price of '48°F or higher' continued to surge from 54c to 97c, while mid-to-low temperature options (e.g., 40-43°F) collapsed to near zero. This was driven by weather models fully confirming a strong warm advection that eliminates the possibility of sustained cold. March 29, 2026: The price of '48°F or higher' surged from 26c to 54c, driven by speculative buying as some outlier weather models suggested potential warm advection if a weather front accelerates eastward.

Based on the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature in Warsaw on April 1, 2026, is expect...

March 30, 2026 01:40-04:55, the price of '12°C or higher' surged from 65c to 79.5c as weather forecasts further confirmed a warming trend for the day, strengthening market expectations for higher temperatures. March 29, 2026 19:10-20:15, the price of '12°C or higher' surged from 27.5c to 39c due to recent weather forecasts adjusting the expected maximum temperature upwards. March 29, 2026 19:10-20:15, the price of '7°C' dropped from 16c to 10c as the rising forecast temperatures significantly reduced the likelihood of lower temperature outcomes.

The latest weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature for Shanghai Pudong (ZSPD) on Apr...

March 30, 2026 02:40 - March 31, 2026 11:10, prices for 21°C and 22°C experienced high volatility and ultimately dominated the market (21°C surged from ~6c to 41.5c before settling at 27.5c), as short-term weather models converged to confirm a high of 21-22°C for the day. March 29, 2026 20:10 - March 30, 2026 09:10, the extreme high option (25°C or higher) plummeted from 25.5c to under 5c, as updated models ruled out the possibility of abnormal heat. March 29, 2026 21:15 - March 29, 2026 22:20, the price of '15°C or below' plummeted from 25c to 12c, as updated meteorological models ruled out the possibility of a strong cold front during this period. March 29, 2026 21:15 - March 29, 2026 22:20, the price of '21°C' crashed from 19c to 6.5c, driven by an early temporary consensus downgrade in daytime high temperature forecasts.