Ferrari's (RACE) quarterly shipments are among the most critical operational metrics in its earnings reports. Whether this data beats or misses expectations directly impacts Ferrari's quarterly financial performance and market valuation, typically causing significant intraday or short-term volatility in the stock on earnings day. Therefore, RACE stock is the most direct hedging asset for this event.

April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the Yes price for '3,400' surged from 53.5c to 74c, while '3,500' dropped from 51c to 33c before rebounding to 43c. '3,600' and '3,700' also experienced sharp intraday dips and recoveries. This was driven by position adjustments in a low-liquidity market as the earnings release approached, triggering significant mispricing (including a logical arbitrage opportunity) and high volatility. Prior to this, trading volume had been extremely low, and no option had seen a price movement of more than 10 cents in earlier periods.

The market exhibits extreme internal divergence and mispricing. Logically, the probability of shipments exceeding 3600 cannot be higher than exceeding 3500. Yet, the Yes price for the 3600 option (47.5c) is higher than that of the 3500 option (42c). This indicates that due to severe lack of liquidity (volume is only ~14.28), irrational orders or capital mismatch by a few users have caused prices to significantly deviate from fundamental statistical reality.