With less than 24 hours until resolution, major meteorological models (such as ECMWF and GFS) for Ma...

March 29, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of '18°C' surged from 18c to 46c, and '17°C' surged from 17.5c to 38.5c, while '20°C' plummeted from 28.5c to 1.2c. This was driven by the convergence of weather forecast models as the target date approached, completely ruling out highs of 20°C and above and confirming a peak temperature in the 17-18°C range. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '17°C' surged from 11c to 37c, while '25°C or higher' plummeted from 26.3c to 0.4c. This was caused by weather forecast models converging as the target date approached, ruling out extreme heat and confirming temperatures settling around 17°C. March 29, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of '25°C or higher' surged from 1.5c to 13.95c, while '23°C' plummeted from 14c to 1.5c, as market participants reallocated capital and speculated on the distribution of extreme high temperatures.

With less than a day until resolution, the latest weather forecasts indicate that the high temperatu...

While weather derivatives exist in professional finance, predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city on a specific day is somewhat niche and novel for average prediction market participants.

March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '48°F or higher' surged from 26c to 99c, driven by weather models fully confirming a strong warm advection that brings significant warming, eliminating the possibility of sustained cold temperatures. Mid-to-low temperature options collapsed to near zero accordingly.

The daily high temperature in Singapore in April typically ranges from 31°C to 33°C. Based on recent...

From 2026-03-31 to 2026-04-01, the price of the 31°C option slightly increased from 11c to 14c, while the 32°C and 33°C options saw minor pullbacks (from 48.5c to 43.5c and 35c to 28.5c, respectively). This reflects the market's reaction to minor adjustments in short-term weather forecasts. From 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-31, the price for the 32°C option surged from 28c to 45c (peaking at 50.5c), and the 33°C option rose from 17c to 31c (peaking at 51c). Concurrently, options for temperatures between 27°C and 31°C plummeted by more than 10c. The reason is that as April 4 approaches, updated meteorological forecasts have ruled out the possibility of unusually low temperatures, causing market expectations to rapidly converge on the typical high-temperature range of 32°C-33°C.

The latest weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature for Shanghai Pudong (ZSPD) on Apr...

March 31, 2026 17:40 - April 1, 2026 13:10, the 18°C option spiked from ~8c to 20.5c before plummeting to 1.2c, as short-term models temporarily diverged on the timing of a weak cold front, which was later invalidated by updated data. March 30, 2026 02:40 - March 31, 2026 11:10, prices for 21°C and 22°C experienced high volatility and ultimately dominated the market (21°C surged from ~6c to 41.5c before settling at 27.5c), as short-term weather models converged to confirm a high of 21-22°C for the day. March 29, 2026 20:10 - March 30, 2026 09:10, the extreme high option (25°C or higher) plummeted from 25.5c to under 5c, as updated models ruled out the possibility of abnormal heat. March 29, 2026 21:15 - March 29, 2026 22:20, the price of '15°C or below' plummeted from 25c to 12c, as updated meteorological models ruled out the possibility of a strong cold front during this period. March 29, 2026 21:15 - March 29, 2026 22:20, the price of '21°C' crashed from 19c to 6.5c, driven by an early temporary consensus downgrade in daytime high temperature forecasts.

As April 3 approaches, the latest meteorological models have significantly revised the temperature f...

March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, prices for 15°C and 16°C surged significantly (e.g., 16°C rose from 5.1c to a peak of 25.9c, and 15°C rose from 16.9c to 33.9c), while 13°C dropped from 25.5c to 9.5c. This was driven by meteorological models further revising London's temperature forecast upward for April 3, indicating unusually warm spring weather due to a warm air mass. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, prices for 14°C and 15°C surged significantly (e.g., 14°C rose from 10c to 34c), while 10°C, 11°C, and 12°C dropped heavily (e.g., 12°C dropped from 32c to 14.5c). This was driven by updated weather forecast models revising the expected temperature upwards for April 3. March 29, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the prices of extreme temperature options such as 8°C, 9°C, 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C or higher plummeted significantly (dropping more than 10c). The reason is that as the target date (April 3) approaches, weather forecasts became much more accurate, narrowing the expected range to 11-13°C, which led the market to dump these low-probability outlier options.