May 4, 2026 - May 6, 2026: Rory McIlroy's price surged from 22c to a peak of 38.5c before settling at 32c, driven by abnormal volatility due to low market liquidity and speculative early betting. May 4, 2026 - May 6, 2026: Cameron Young's price jumped from 18c to 30.5c, similarly reflecting irrational inflation in a low-liquidity market.

The market prices for certain players (e.g., Cameron Young and initially Rory McIlroy) imply Top 5 probabilities exceeding 30%, which diverges significantly from mainstream golf prediction models like DataGolf. In highly competitive golf tournaments, even for the world's best players, the single-event probability of a Top 5 finish rarely exceeds 25%-30% consistently. This divergence is primarily due to low liquidity in the early prediction market and the impact of a few large trades.

This is a relatively niche weather prediction market. While people check weather forecasts daily, trading on the exact lowest temperature range at a specific station on a specific day is a typical novelty market, falling outside mainstream conventional interests.

May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of 18°C surged from 19c to 48c as the latest weather forecasts confirmed that the lowest temperature is highly likely to fall in the 18°C range. May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of 16°C plunged from 21c to 1c, then bounced back to around 18c, because the shift in the forecast center decreased the probability of lower extreme temperatures.

May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of 14°C surged from 8c to 34.5c due to a slight warming adjustment in weather forecast models. May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of 12°C plunged from 25c to 10c, as the warmer forecasts significantly reduced the probability of lower temperature ranges. May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of 13°C rose from 22c to 44.5c, becoming the most likely core range according to current forecasts.

The title asks for the highest temperature in Seoul, but the resolution criteria strictly rely on data from the Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI). Since Incheon Airport is coastal, its temperatures often differ from central Seoul, presenting a significant discrepancy between the title and the rules.

Predicting the exact temperature of a specific city on a given day falls under standard weather derivatives. While not extremely rare in prediction markets, it remains a relatively niche and highly specific trivial question for the general public.

May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026: The Yes price for 20°C surged from 18c to 48c, and 19°C increased from 21.5c to 38c, as approaching the resolution date, updated meteorological data revised the expected high temperature upwards. May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026: The Yes price for 18°C plummeted from 33c to 2.4c, and 17°C dropped from 23.5c to 0.85c, because the market largely ruled out temperatures below 19°C following the upward forecast revisions.

While weather is a common daily topic, betting on the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a specific day is relatively niche in prediction markets, falling outside mainstream political or economic topics.

May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of the 29°C option surged from 22c to 46.5c, while the prices of 27°C and 28°C saw significant drops. This was driven by the latest weather forecasts, as the resolution date approaches, pinning the expected highest temperature for Sao Paulo on May 8 to around 29°C (approx. 84-85°F).