The rules rely heavily on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) and include a fuzzy ~5-minute capture window for deleted posts, while also distinguishing between 'main feed replies' and 'normal replies'. These technical nuances can cause discrepancies between tracked data and user observations, leading to a moderate risk of resolution disputes.

Betting on the exact number of social media posts a public figure makes in a specific week is a typical novelty behavioral market. It appears quite absurd and bizarre to the general public, even though such markets are somewhat popular in prediction circles due to Musk's high profile.

May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The price of the 120-139 bracket surged significantly from 9.8c to 36.2c, and the 140-159 bracket climbed to 35.3c; meanwhile, the 160-179 bracket plummeted from a peak of 29.5c to 10.7c, and the 180-199 bracket crashed from 18.5c to 3.5c. This occurred because Musk's actual tweet volume decreased drastically over the weekend, leading the market to further downgrade expectations for his final tweet count, with capital rapidly concentrating in the lower 100-159 range. April 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 120-139 bracket surged from 9.7c to 25.9c, the 140-159 bracket from 13.7c to 28.3c, the 100-119 bracket from 6.7c to 10.5c, while the 200-219 bracket plunged from 14.5c to 4.5c. This was because Musk's actual tweet volume decreased further, shifting market expectations toward lower brackets. April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 160-179 bracket surged from around 5c to 28c before retracing to 15.8c, and the 140-159 bracket surged from around 3c to 30.5c. As tracking days increased, Musk's actual tweet count demonstrated a consistently stable and lower-than-initially-expected trend, prompting the market to further concentrate bets on lower brackets. Earlier on April 28, 2026: Multiple brackets experienced significant price shifts. The '240-259' bracket surged from 19c to 47c, and '220-239' rose from 18c to 27c. These drastic movements reflect aggressive market recalibrations and hedging based on the actual tweeting velocity observed during the initial hours of the market period.

The rules contain significant caveats: normal replies do not count (which make up the majority of Musk's activity), but main-feed replies do. Deleted posts count if kept for >5 minutes. Furthermore, resolution heavily relies on a specific custom tracker, which may yield vastly different totals compared to a user's manual count on X.

Betting on the exact number of tweets a public figure makes in a specific week is a highly niche and entertainment-driven market. Ordinary people do not ponder the exact statistical count of such trivial daily activities, making it a classic novelty prediction market.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of '120-139' surged significantly from 2.35c to 13.25c, and '140-159' surged from 5.1c to 15.25c. This occurred because as tracking days passed, Musk's daily tweet run rate continued to fall, prompting traders to significantly downgrade their overall median estimates. April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of '160-179' steadily climbed from 5.5c to 17c, and '140-159' surged from 2.3c to 10.85c. This is because first-day tracking data showed a lower posting frequency than initial aggressive expectations, prompting traders to revise their median projections downwards. April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, multiple high-frequency options experienced steep declines. The price of '260-279' plummeted from 39.5c to 5.5c, '240-259' dropped from 30c to 10.5c, and '220-239' fell from 30.5c to 14.5c. This was due to significant previous overpricing or speculation; as the tracking period approached, traders re-evaluated Musk's realistic posting frequency, leading to mass sell-offs and a reversion to the mean.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a somewhat niche and novelty topic for retail prediction markets. However, it is not absurd, as weather is scientifically measurable and weather derivatives are common in professional fields.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 36.5c to 63.5c, because as the target date approached and real-time temperatures were updated, the market became increasingly confident that the high would land at 23°C. May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 22°C option plummeted from 32c to 11.5c, as real-time forecasts indicated temperatures would rise above this range.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The price of the 29°C option surged from 30c to 99.75c, while the 28°C option plummeted from 42.5c to 0.15c. The reason is that on the settlement day, the actual temperature successfully climbed into the 29°C range before the cold front and rainbands arrived in the afternoon, overturning the market's previous overpricing of the cooling effect. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 30°C option plummeted from 27c to 8.5c, and the 29°C option dropped from 48c to 35.5c, while the 28°C option surged from 22.5c to 43c. The reason is that as the resolution date approached, updated weather forecasts confirmed heavier rain and cloud cover, prompting the market to discount the likelihood of higher temperatures and shift the peak probability range down to 28°C.