Arbitrage Plan: Buy 13°C + 14°C + 15°C (Total cost ~69.5¢) Plan Description: This combination covers the 56°F to 59°F temperature range, completely encapsulating the core foreca...

Significant divergence exists between major weather models: Google/Weather.com (TWC) forecasts a hig...

March 22, 2026: The price of '16°C' crashed from a morning peak of 40¢ to 23¢, suggesting the market realized earlier bets on 'extreme warmth' were overly aggressive and is correcting. Simultaneously, '14°C' experienced high volatility, recovering to 27¢ after a flash crash to 12¢ earlier in the day, indicating capital is rediscovering the value of this middle-ground option. March 21-22, 2026: '15°C' climbed from 35¢ to 40¢ before retracing to 36.5¢, highlighting its status as the battleground option anchored by the AccuWeather forecast.

Polymarket prices imply a much higher probability for '16°C' (23%) compared to '13°C' (6%), which sharply diverges from the mainstream forecast by Google/The Weather Channel (56°F/13°C). The market is effectively ignoring the TWC forecast, lopsidedly betting on outcomes even warmer than AccuWeather (15°C), indicating a significant irrational bias.

This is an extreme case of market mispricing. With less than 24 hours to settlement, the resolution ...

March 21-22, 2026, the price of '16°C or higher' surged from ~8c to 56.8c, as the market erroneously traded on KMA's high-temperature forecasts for downtown Seoul (16-18°C), ignoring the temperature differential at the airport location. March 21-22, 2026, the price of '13°C' crashed from ~30c to 2.3c, as herd mentality drove capital into the high-temp options, leaving the option most aligned with meteorological models (Wunderground forecasts 13°C) severely oversold.

There is a total divergence between market implied probabilities (16°C+ > 50%) and the resolution source weather forecast (13°C). Mainstream media is reporting warming in Seoul (~17°C), but traders are ignoring that the prediction market specifies Incheon Airport (13°C) as the resolution location.

The market is heavily skewed towards 19°C and 20°C (combined ~73%), likely overreacting to a specifi...

From March 20 to March 21, 2026, the price of the 23°C option crashed from 29c to 4c, while the 19°C option surged from 20c to 39c. This movement appears to be a drastic reaction to a cooler forecast appearing on the Wunderground website (suggesting ~18°C-19°C), causing traders to dump the previously favored warmer option (23°C) and consolidate bets on 19°C and 20°C.

Significant divergence exists. Market pricing implies a high probability of 19-20°C, aligning with Wunderground's text forecast (65°F). However, major weather providers (AccuWeather, QWeather, Weather.com) all point to higher temperatures between 21°C and 23°C. The market may be ignoring the broader meteorological consensus by focusing too narrowly on the resolution source's specific forecast model.

The resolution source Wunderground (based on IBM/TWC data) and Google Weather (same source) currentl...

Weather prediction is a niche market. While temperature is a common topic, betting on the exact temperature of a specific city on a specific date is relatively vertical. Most people wouldn't participate unless they specifically track local forecasts.

From March 20 to March 21, 2026, the price of '23°C' crashed from 26c to 7.5c, '22°C' dropped from 26c to 12c, and '14°C or below' fell from 26c to 9c. The reason is that weather models have converged on the 17-18°C range as the date approaches, causing the market to discard the previously uniform pricing on extreme high and low temperature options.

While the market correctly identifies 17°C and 18°C as favorites, it still implies a ~60% combined probability for temperatures 19°C and above. However, forecasts from Wunderground and CMA predict highs of 17-18°C with rain, making temperatures above 20°C highly improbable. Market pricing is lagging significantly behind the updated, cooler forecast.

Although previous analysis (based on older data) pointed to 16-17°C, recent market price dynamics sh...

2026-03-21 02:40 - 2026-03-21 09:10, prices for 16°C surged from 12.5c to 25c, likely due to a repricing after a brief sell-off or extreme liquidity drying up causing a rebound. 2026-03-21 02:40 - 2026-03-21 04:50, prices for 17°C surged from 10.5c to 27.5c, indicating extremely high uncertainty in the mid-temperature range. 2026-03-21 00:30 - 2026-03-21 02:40, prices for 21°C crashed from 21.5c to 9c before rebounding back to 20c, such violent oscillation suggests the market is currently highly unstable and lacks a solid consensus.

Significant divergence and structural distortion exist. Firstly, the total market price of 1.90 indicates massive irrational exuberance. Secondly, although price gravity seems to have shifted towards warmer temps (19-20°C), prices for 16°C and 17°C remain stubbornly high at 20-25c, contradicting the warming trend. This suggests market participants are hedging against conflicting weather models, or old limit orders have not been cancelled.