As of 09:15 AM JST on March 22, the current temperature in Tokyo is already 11°C (Sunny). The latest...

For the general public, the specific temperature of a specific city on a specific date is not a topic naturally speculated upon, making it a niche weather prediction market. While weather forecasting is common, betting on it as a specific outcome has a certain 'novelty' factor.

March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of '16°C' climbed steadily from 38c to 50c, while '17°C' crashed from 20c to 11c and '15°C' retraced from 45c to 31c. The reason is that as the March 22 sunrise approached, meteorological models pinpointed the high near 16°C, ruling out previously expected warmer scenarios (17-18°C) and cooler ones (sub-15°C). March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of '18°C' collapsed from 17c to 1c due to the 48-hour forecast window confirming a cooler air mass, effectively eliminating the possibility of a warm spring spike.

According to the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) 9-day forecast updated on March 20, the weather for M...

March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of '25°C' surged from ~20c to 38c (later settling at 36c), while '23°C' crashed from 18c to under 3c. The reason is the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) updated its official forecast, explicitly targeting a maximum temperature of 25°C for March 22, effectively ruling out the cooler 22-23°C scenarios and establishing 25°C as the consensus anchor. March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, the price of '27°C or higher' plunged from 26.5c to 15c, as weather models converged on the 23-25°C range closer to the date, ruling out extreme heat.

Lucknow experienced severe thunderstorms and rainfall on March 21 (recording the coolest day of the ...

March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of '30°C or below' surged from ~65c to 92c. The reason was the actual occurrence of thunderstorms on March 21 which caused temperatures to plummet (max ~24°C), confirming a cold and wet physical baseline that makes a rebound above 30°C the next day extremely unlikely. March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the option experienced high volatility between 45c and 65c. The reason was market uncertainty regarding the intensity and duration of the incoming Western Disturbance rainfall.

Although Sunday's daytime high is forecast to be only around 50°F due to the cold front, the market ...

Weather prediction markets are a niche but stable category. For the general public, predicting the exact high temperature for a specific city on a specific day is relatively obscure compared to sports or politics, but it has a dedicated trading base (weather enthusiasts or commodity traders).

March 20 - March 21, 2026, '63°F or below' retraced from 72c to 57c, as high-frequency weather models (like HRRR) began to capture the stubbornness of Saturday night's warm air, pushing back the expected cold front passage and reviving the 'Midnight High' thesis. March 19 - March 20, 2026, '63°F or below' surged from 30c to 72c, driven by intermediate models predicting a much earlier cold front arrival that would eliminate the midnight heat threat. March 18 - March 19, 2026, '63°F or below' crashed from 88c to 30c, reflecting extreme market uncertainty regarding the precise timing of the frontal passage.

Significant divergence exists. Polymarket is currently pricing '63°F or below' at ~60%, implying the cold front will clear the heat before midnight Saturday. However, professional sources like AccuWeather show temperatures as high as 67°F at 11 PM Saturday, and the NWS forecast of 'Southwest winds' supports the warm sector persisting into early Sunday. The market is likely misled by generic weather app icons showing a low Sunday daytime high (53°F), ignoring the specific prediction market mechanic where the 'daily high' is determined by the temperature at the stroke of midnight.

The specific resolution source, Wunderground (powered by TWC), forecasts a high of 50°F (10°C) with ...

March 21-22, 2026, the price of 11°C rallied steadily from ~30c to 51c and stabilized, as the shrinking forecast window led the market consensus to rule out 13°C+ highs, consolidating capital into 11°C as the most probable 'median'. Evening of March 21, 2026, the price of 10°C retraced from a high of 27.5c to 18.5c, while 12°C rebounded from 17.5c to 23.5c, indicating late-stage market wavering with some capital betting on a last-minute model upgrade (despite the resolution source TWC holding at 50°F/10°C). March 20-21, 2026, the price of 12°C halved from 38c to 17.5c, reflecting the collapse of high-temperature expectations once the rain forecast was confirmed.

Significant divergence exists. The Polymarket currently prices 11°C as the favorite (51c), with 12°C (23.5c) trading even higher than 10°C (18.5c). However, the core resolution source, Wunderground (TWC), explicitly forecasts a high of 50°F for the airport location, which converts directly to 10°C. The market appears to be pricing based on AccuWeather (forecasting 11°C) or other models, ignoring the specific bias of the resolution source, leaving 10°C significantly undervalued.