Highest temperature in Amsterdam on April 11?
Weather|$12.1k Vol|
time21 hrs 45 mins

Highest temperature in Amsterdam on April 11? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 3 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
18°C(No)
+4.5¢
16°C(No)
+1.5¢
17°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Amsterdam on April 11? AI analysis: • +8.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
With just 1 day left until resolution, the latest weather forecasts indicate the maximum temperature...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?
Economy|$26.4k Vol|
time6 days 9 hrs

Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
On April 8, 2026, Trump announced a 50% tariff on any country supplying military weapons to Iran. Ho...
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Rule Risk
The primary risk lies in defining the motive behind the tariff. If the official announcement does not explicitly state 'military cooperation with Iran' as the reason, the market must rely on a 'consensus of credible reporting', which is highly prone to disputes during resolution.
Hedging
Crude Oil
Tariffs on countries assisting Iran militarily would not only escalate trade frictions (potentially impacting the S&P 500 if targeting major economies) but also highlight escalating Middle East geopolitical risks. This would directly drive up crude oil prices and boost demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Movers
April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of Option 'Yes' plummeted from 72.5c to 11.5c. The reason is that Trump announced a 50% tariff on nations supplying weapons to Iran but failed to name specific countries, which likely disqualifies the action under the market's strict resolution rules. April 5, 2026 - April 8, 2026, no significant price movements of over 10 cents were observed. The price previously remained steady at 72.5c.
AI Analysis
Search Google News or Twitter to find the most direct news source driving recent discussions: has the Trump administration recently made public threats to impose tariffs on countries providing military assistance to Iran?
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8-12?
Economy|$46.0k Vol|
time1 days 9 hrs

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8-12?

Top Undervalued
+13¢
20(Yes)
+5.3¢
50(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
A provisional ceasefire on April 8 briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz, but it was quickly closed ...
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Exotics
This is a niche event focusing on shipping data and geopolitical risks. While the Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway, betting on the exact daily transit ship count is relatively obscure for the general public, though it is a standard metric monitored by commodity traders.
Hedging
Crude Oil
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical chokepoint for crude oil transit. An abnormally sharp decline in ship transits through the strait usually indicates a major geopolitical crisis in the region (e.g., blockades, war), which would directly cause crude oil prices to spike. Therefore, this metric serves as a strong correlated hedge for crude oil futures.
Movers
April 8, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the '10' option plummeted from 86c to 58.5c, and the '30' and '40' options also dropped from 36c and 35c to 10c and 7.5c respectively. This was due to the brief reopening of the strait on April 8 failing to hold, as it was subsequently closed again following Israeli attacks on Lebanon, prompting the market to significantly downgrade expectations for high transit volumes.
AI Analysis
Based on IMF Portwatch data over the past year, what are the historical daily average and maximum peak numbers of ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz to evaluate the realistic probability of hitting 60 ships between April 8-12?
Trump announces Attorney General pick by...?
Politics|$16.9k Vol|
time6 days 9 hrs

Trump announces Attorney General pick by...?

Top Undervalued
+1.2¢
April 10(No)
+0.5¢
April 17(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
It is already April 10, making an announcement by this date almost impossible. As time passes, it ap...
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AI Analysis
What are the exact criteria for Trump's Attorney General announcement to resolve as 'Yes', and what types of media reports, acting appointments, or rumors are explicitly excluded?
KY-01 House Election Winner
Politics|$15.2k Vol|
time206 days 9 hrs

KY-01 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+4.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
KY-01 is one of the safest Republican districts in Kentucky (Cook PVI R+23). Incumbent Republican Re...
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AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest Polymarket odds and order book depth for the KY-01 House Election; combining the fundamental fact that this is a Republican stronghold (James Comer's seat), assess whether the current 'Republican' price is fair and analyze the liquidity crunch and spread risks driven by the low volume of $4,800.
Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
Parlays|$107.7k Vol|
time264 days 9 hrs

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Top Undervalued
+61¢
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%(No)
+13¢
Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5%(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market continues to view Kevin Warsh as the most likely next Fed Chair, with his combined option...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Hedging
Gold
DXY
S&P 500
US 10Y Yield
This event is directly linked to the anchor of global asset pricing—the Fed interest rate path. If the outcome leans towards rates dropping to 2.5% (implying a deep recession or extreme dovish pivot in the current context), it would cause US Treasury Yields to crash significantly and likely boost Gold. The policy bias of the chosen Chair (e.g., Warsh vs. Hassett) would also directly impact S&P 500 valuation models and the trajectory of the Dollar Index (DXY).
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data for the "Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair" event on Polymarket. Analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity depth for top options like Christopher Waller and Kevin Hassett. Combine this with current macro narratives to assess the fair value and arbitrage space considering the dual conditions of "Candidate Confirmation" and "Rate cut to 2.5%".
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
18°C
YesNo
23.5¢
76.5¢
15¢
85¢
0¢
+8.5¢
16°C
YesNo
39.5¢
60.5¢
35¢
65¢
0¢
+4.5¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the prices of 18°C and 19°C dropped from their peaks of 34.5c and 32.5c to 19c and 11c respectively, while 16°C climbed from a low of 12c to 30.5c. This was caused by nearer-term forecasts showing increased afternoon cloud cover and shower probabilities, capping temperature highs and shifting market expectations downward. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of 16°C plummeted from a high of 27.5c to 16.5c, as weather forecasts initially adjusted expected temperatures upwards. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of 13°C or below fell from 15c to 3.7c, and 14°C and 15°C also dropped significantly, because short-term forecasts eliminated the possibility of abnormally low temperatures. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the prices of 18°C and 19°C climbed notably, as forecasting models at the time trended towards higher temperature expectations.

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