May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the prices of several outlier temperature options (e.g., 6°C, 7°C, and 11°C) experienced severe fluctuations of more than 10 cents. Notably, the 11°C option plummeted from 24c to under 3c, and the 6°C option similarly dropped from 24c to below 4c. This occurred because, as the target date approached, weather forecast models converged on a narrower temperature range of 8°C-9°C, effectively pricing out the extreme values.

The title simply says 'San Francisco,' but the rules specify that data from the 'San Francisco International Airport Station' (SFO) will be used. Since SFO is located outside the city limits and often experiences different microclimates compared to downtown SF, traders relying on general 'San Francisco weather' forecasts may be misled.

While weather forecasting is a common daily activity, betting on the exact daily high temperature (down to the degree) at a specific international airport on a specific future date is a niche prediction market topic that the general public does not naturally ponder.

While weather prediction markets exist, forecasting the exact maximum daily temperature for a specific city remains a relatively niche topic that the general public does not typically ponder on a regular basis.