High rule risk. The term 'hit' is ambiguous; it is unclear whether it refers to an intraday touch, a daily close, or the monthly settlement price. Additionally, the directional arrows (e.g., ↑ $184) suggest barrier options, but if this is a mutually exclusive market, the settlement logic is undefined for scenarios where multiple price levels are touched (e.g., dropping to $120 then rising to $184) within the same month.

This market is directly correlated with NVDA's stock performance. If the market implies NVDA will hit extreme prices (e.g., ↓ $100), it corresponds to significant volatility in the equity market. This event serves as a direct hedge for exposure to NVDA stock or the Nasdaq index (AI/Tech sector).

April 8, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of ↓ $168 plummeted from 61.5c to 18.5c, and ↓ $160 dropped from 39c to 10c, while ↑ $192 surged to 72.5c after a brief dip. The reason is a significant rally in NVDA's underlying stock during this period, drastically reducing the odds of hitting lower price targets. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the Yes prices of multiple options (e.g., ↑ $244, ↑ $228, ↓ $100) plummeted from ~49c to ~10c. The reason is that the mispricing caused by liquidity dry-ups the previous day was corrected by the market, returning to reasonable low-probability valuations. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the Yes prices of multiple deep out-of-the-money options surged from ~10c to ~50c. The reason is extremely poor market depth and a lack of market maker quotes, leading to massive bid-ask spreads or default quote anomalies.

April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026: The prices of multiple options at or below 27°C plummeted (e.g., 27°C dropped from 28.5c to 2.25c, and 26°C from 24c to 2c). This was driven by the updated 9-day forecast from the Hong Kong Observatory, which confirmed a significant temperature rise to around 30°C due to a southerly airstream. Meanwhile, the '31°C or higher' option fluctuated heavily between 16.5c and 29c as the market continuously reassessed the likelihood of extreme daytime heating breaking the 31°C threshold.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a typical weather prediction market. While not uncommon in specialized betting circles, it remains a relatively niche topic that the general public and non-locals would not ordinarily think about.

From April 9, 2026 to April 10, 2026, the price of '11°C or higher' surged from 59.5c to 98c, while '10°C' plummeted from 30c to 1.4c, and '9°C' dropped from 16.5c to 0.6c. This was caused by the convergence of short-term weather models as the date approached, definitively ruling out a late spring cold snap and confirming the high will easily exceed 11°C. There are no prior records of price spikes exceeding 10c. The overall market pricing had remained relatively stable, adjusting slightly according to daily rolling weather forecast updates.

April 10, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of '23°C or higher' plunged from 56.5c to 27c, as updated meteorological models ruled out extreme heat scenarios, shifting the consensus slightly lower. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of '22°C' climbed from 18.5c to 31.5c, because the downward revision in heat expectations made 22°C one of the most probable peak targets. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of '21°C' steadily rose from 16.5c to 27c, also driven by the correction of the upper temperature bound and increasing short-term forecast certainty.

Although weather forecasting is part of daily life, placing precise bets on the highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is relatively niche among the general public, making it a moderately novel prediction market topic.

April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the Yes price for '20°C' fluctuated, dropping from 30.5c (Apr 9, 22:23) to 11.0c (Apr 10, 12:28) before recovering to 26.5c (Apr 10, 18:58). This was due to volatility in weather forecast models regarding whether the high would reach 20°C. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the Yes price for '21°C' dropped from 23.0c (Apr 9, 16:58) to 4.0c (Apr 10, 18:58), as the likelihood of temperatures reaching 21°C decreased significantly as the date approached. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the Yes price for '22°C or higher' plummeted from 30.5c (Apr 9, 08:18) to 3.5c (Apr 10, 18:58), because extreme high-temperature forecasts were revised downwards, making 22°C highly unlikely. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the Yes price for '18°C' rose from 12.0c (Apr 9, 08:18) to 27.0c (Apr 10, 18:58), as downward revisions in temperature forecasts made 18°C a more probable high.