Betting on the specific high temperature of a particular city on a specific day is somewhat niche. Average people wouldn't think about it unless traveling or living there, though weather forecasting is a standard vertical in prediction markets.

From Mar 30, 2026 to Mar 31, 2026, the Yes price of '14°C' plunged from 31¢ to 20¢, while '16°C' surged from 14¢ to 29¢, because short-term weather models revised expected temperatures upward, shifting the most likely high back to 16°C. From Mar 29, 2026 to Mar 30, 2026, the Yes price of '17°C' dropped sharply from 26.5¢ to 4.5¢, as updated forecasts largely ruled out unseasonable warmth for the target date. From Mar 29, 2026 to Mar 29, 2026, the Yes price of '16°C' surged from 16¢ to 29¢, because the latest meteorological models converged on a high temperature of around 16°C. From Mar 29, 2026 to Mar 29, 2026, the Yes price of '20°C or higher' plunged from 25.5¢ to 15.5¢, as updated weather forecasts closer to the target date reduced the probability of an unseasonably warm peak.