As the local time in Taipei has passed 18:30 on March 28, the daily maximum temperature has largely ...

March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026: The price of 22°C surged from 31c to 92.5c before settling around 48.5c, while 21°C skyrocketed from under 2c to 46c. Options for 23°C and above collapsed to near zero. This was driven by actual intraday weather observations revealing lower-than-expected temperatures due to overcast/rainy conditions, locking the potential high to 21-22°C. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026: The price of 25°C surged from 17.5c to 28c before settling at 18.5c, and 24°C surged from 10.5c to 27.5c before dropping to 17c. This volatility was driven by fluctuations in short-term weather models causing the market to reprice the probability of unexpectedly higher temperatures. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The price of 22°C plummeted from 32c to 11c before recovering to 20.5c, likely due to capital rotating out of early forecasts (favoring 22°C) towards higher temperature buckets (like 23°C).

The market has largely formed a consensus that 'War Machine' will likely be the #2 global Netflix mo...

Between 2026-03-24 and 2026-03-26, the price of 'War Machine' plunged from 77.5c to 30.5c before surging back to 85.5c, as early daily viewership data temporarily sparked concerns of a ranking drop, but subsequent weekend data solidified expectations of it securing the #2 spot. Between 2026-03-24 and 2026-03-26, the price of 'Nuremberg' fluctuated and dropped from 15c to 6.85c, as the strong performance of 'War Machine' squeezed the probability of other films competing for the second place.

Today is March 28, 2026. With about 9 months left in the year, the core fundamental logic remains un...

While the rules define 'military offensive' and 'intent to establish control,' the boundaries in actual geopolitical conflicts are often blurred. For example, a blockade, the seizure of outlying islands (like Kinmen or Matsu), or limited strikes might be disputed as to whether they constitute an offensive 'intended to establish control' versus coercive signaling. Although uninhabited islands are excluded, there remains interpretative risk regarding whether a localized conflict over inhabited islands qualifies as the full-scale invasion implied by the title.

If this event resolves to 'Yes', it would be a massive 'Black Swan' event causing a structural shock to global markets. TSMC (TSM), located at the epicenter, would face catastrophic downside, severely damaging the entire semiconductor sector (e.g., NVDA, AAPL) and the Nasdaq 100 which relies on its chips. Global supply chain disruption would crash equities (SPX), while flight-to-safety would drastically spike Gold and Crude Oil prices. This is a macro risk event with maximum hedging value.

The current market price (near 10%) shows some divergence from the consensus of mainstream defense experts and the intelligence community. Mainstream experts and US intelligence agencies generally assess that while China is steadily advancing its military modernization, 2027 (the PLA's centennial) is the potential target date for having the full capability to invade Taiwan. The probability of launching a military invasion in 2026 is considered extremely low (near 0%). The elevated market price is primarily due to retail investors using the market as a cheap hedge against a geopolitical black swan event, or overreacting to breaking news headlines, rather than relying on rigorous military logic.

Recent meteorological updates (such as Environment and Climate Change Canada and GFS/GEM models) hav...

While weather forecasting is an everyday routine, betting on the exact degree of a specific city's high temperature for a single day is a niche activity primarily unique to prediction markets, making it moderately novel.

March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of the '10°C or higher' option surged from approximately 29c to a peak of 81.5c (settling around 70.5c). This was driven by significantly updated forecasts from Environment Canada and weather models projecting an unseasonably warm daytime high of 12-14°C for March 29. March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the prices of '9°C' and several lower temperature options plummeted, as the market rapidly priced out cooler outcomes in response to the new high-temperature consensus.

Given the large field and high variance in golf tournaments, individual win probabilities are typica...

March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026: The Yes prices for multiple players, including Kyoung-Hoon Lee, Henry Lebioda, JT Poston, and Max McGreevy, abnormally surged from under 5c to between 25c and 40c. The reason is a severe liquidity vacuum or aggressive anomalous market orders causing the sum of implied probabilities for mutually exclusive events to massively exceed 100%. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026: The Yes prices for multiple players, including Ryo Hisatsune, Michael Kim, Marcelo Rozo, and Matt McCarty, abnormally surged from under 1c to between 35c and 50c. The reason is a severe liquidity vacuum or aggressive anomalous market orders causing the sum of implied probabilities for mutually exclusive events to massively exceed 100%. March 24, 2026: Several long-tail players (like Min Woo Lee, Sam Burns) experienced brief and extreme spikes in their Yes prices (e.g., from under 5c to over 25c) before rapidly falling back. This was caused by anomalous trading activity in a highly illiquid market environment triggering extreme short-term volatility.

The sum of the market implied probabilities is extremely anomalous, severely diverging from the realistic win probability distribution in a real sports event. Mainstream media and betting market odds would never support multiple non-favorites simultaneously having such high probabilities of winning.