Latest weather forecasts predict the high temperature for Sao Paulo (Guarulhos) on March 28 to be be...

Weather prediction markets are niche. While people care about weather, betting on the specific high temperature of a specific city on a specific date is not a mainstream topic like elections or sports. However, it is a regular topic for locals or meteorology enthusiasts.

March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of the 30°C option rose from 18c to 27c, and the 31°C option spiked from 16.5c to 30c before settling at 25.5c, driven by irrational market speculation favoring hotter outcomes despite contradictory forecasts. March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of the 26°C option plummeted from 17.5c to 1.25c, as nearing resolution dates solidified weather models around 28°C, eliminating the probability of such low temperatures.

The prediction market assigns the highest probabilities to 30°C and 31°C (totaling ~50%), yet mainstream weather organizations like AccuWeather and the Weather Channel consistently predict high temperatures between 27°C and 29°C (81°F-85°F). There is a significant divergence between market pricing and the actual meteorological consensus.

With less than 10 hours to resolution, it is already the morning of March 27 in Shenzhen local time....

March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026: The price of the 26°C option plummeted from 30c to under 2c, and the 27°C option pulled back from a high of 41c to 24c, while the 28°C and 29°C options surged to 36c and 29c respectively. This shift occurred because, on the actual day of the event, real-time weather observations and nowcasts indicated a slightly warmer daytime high than previously expected, causing capital to quickly rotate into the 28°C and 29°C brackets. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The price of the 27°C option climbed steadily from 18.5c to 31c, while the 30°C option plummeted from 17c to 4c. The 23°C option also experienced high volatility before settling near 4c. This was driven by meteorological models (like ECMWF and GFS) converging as the date approached, locking the expected high temperature into the 26°C-28°C range and eliminating the likelihood of anomalous temperature extremes.

Short-term weather forecasts for Wellington on March 28 indicate that the highest temperature is hig...

This is a typical weather prediction market. While routine for meteorology enthusiasts or locals, predicting the specific daily temperature of a Southern Hemisphere city is a relatively niche topic for the average global trader, unlike elections or major sports.

March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of the '20°C' option surged from 24.5c to 34.5c, as forecasts became more concentrated in this temperature range as the date approached. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of the '19°C' option plummeted from 24.5c to 10.5c, because the latest forecasts indicated temperatures would be slightly higher. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the '21°C' option surged from 16.5c to 35c (then retreated to 32.5c), likely due to updated short-term weather forecasts predicting higher temperatures. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the '23°C or higher' option plummeted from 25.5c to 5c, as the likelihood of extreme high temperatures was ruled out by meteorological data as the date approached. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the '16°C' option crashed from 16.5c to 0.8c, because forecasts generally indicated temperatures would be higher than this value.

Based on the latest weather forecasts, the high-temperature expectation for New York City (LaGuardia...

March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026: The price of 64-65°F surged from 6.5c to 30c, and 62-63°F surged from 13.5c to 33.5c, as nearing resolution dates confirmed a stronger warming trend in meteorological forecasts. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026: The price of 58-59°F plummeted from 29.5c to 5.5c, and 60-61°F dropped from 33c to 14.5c, because the upward revision in high temperatures drastically squeezed the probability of outcomes below 62°F. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The price of 60-61°F surged from 17.5c to 31c due to initial weather forecast models upgrading the high-temperature expectations for March 27. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The prices of 54-55°F and 56-57°F plummeted from 28.5c to 4.5c and 11c respectively, as approaching forecast dates ruled out cooler weather scenarios due to weakening cold air.

Based on the latest forecast data, the expected high temperature for Madrid on March 28 has been sig...

From March 26, 2026, 03:55 to 12:35, the price of the '16°C' option surged from 15.5c to 31c, while '18°C' plummeted from 29c to 14.5c. This was caused by the latest weather model updates, which significantly revised the expected high temperature for Madrid on March 28 downward from 18°C (forecasted earlier) to around 16°C. Previous analysis noted that fine-tuning of forecast models closer to the date would cause rapid shifts in the probability distribution. This market movement perfectly demonstrates the drastic impact of forecast updates on short-term weather market prices.