Recent price trends indicate that the market considers the highest temperature in Madrid on March 29...

While checking the weather is an everyday activity, betting on the exact highest temperature range at a specific airport station on a given day is a relatively niche and novel market for the general public.

March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026, the prices of '12°C' and '13°C' pulled back, dropping from highs of around 39c and 40c to 23.5c and 31.5c respectively, while the price of '14°C' rebounded from 12.5c to 21c. This is because short-term weather forecast models moderated their expectations for extreme cooling, adjusting towards slightly higher temperatures. March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the prices of '12°C' and '13°C' surged from around 11.5c and 14.5c to 32c and 40c respectively, due to updated weather forecasts predicting a significant temperature drop on the 29th. March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the prices of '15°C', '16°C', and '17°C' plummeted (e.g., '15°C' fell from 22c to 3.9c), as short-term weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of warmer temperatures.

Early 2026 is characterized by a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral (confirmed by search result...

While global warming is a hot topic, betting on specific monthly temperature anomalies (down to 0.01 degrees) is a niche scientific data prediction, less common than elections or sports, but standard for climate watchers.

Significant and irrational divergence exists. The market assigns nearly uniform probabilities (~40%) to all outcomes, ignoring physical reality. Mainstream climate forecasts indicate a La Niña influence in early 2026, favoring lower anomalies (<1.10ºC), while market prices imply a high probability of extreme heat (>1.20ºC), directly contradicting ENSO forecasts.

As the target date approaches, weather forecast models have converged, predicting that the highest t...

March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the prices for the 19°C and 20°C options surged from 16.5c to 36c and 25.5c respectively, while the cooler options (12°C to 17°C) and the highest option (22°C or higher) plummeted (e.g., 12°C or below dropped from 24.5c to 0.35c). The reason is that weather forecasts converged significantly as the date approached, ruling out extreme temperatures and locking in on the core 19-20°C range.

Current meteorological sources vary widely in their high temperature forecasts for NYC LaGuardia on ...

As the 7-day resolution window concludes, current market prices show near 100% conviction for the '8...

MrBeast's video performance is a highly popular pop-culture topic with broad public interest, so it's not extremely obscure. However, betting on specific first-week view counts remains a niche 'novelty' market compared to traditional political or financial forecasting.

From March 27, 2026, 03:45 to March 28, 2026, 06:50, the '80-90M' option steadily rose from 85c to 99.35c. This was caused by the impending end of the settlement period, confirming the final data would unquestionably land in the 80-90M range and eliminating all remaining volatility risks. From March 26, 2026, 18:00 to March 27, 2026, 20:00, the '80-90M' option experienced severe volatility, dropping from 91.5c to 66.5c before rebounding sharply to 95.8c. Concurrently, '70-80M' spiked from 6.75c to 32.75c before crashing to 3.6c. This was caused by late-stage view metric fluctuations just before settlement, triggering a brief market panic over whether the video could hold the 80M mark, though it ultimately confirmed its place above 80M. From March 26, 2026, 08:15 to March 26, 2026, 23:25, the '80-90M' option surged from 64.5c to 90c, while '70-80M' plummeted from 29.35c to 4.95c. This was caused by the video confirming it crossed the 80 million views milestone as the 7-day period concludes, eliminating the risk of falling into the 70M-80M range. From March 26, 2026, 02:50 to March 26, 2026, 12:35, the '70-80M' option skyrocketed from 0.45c to 30.9c, while the '80-90M' option plummeted from 94.5c to 68c. This was caused by a significantly lower-than-expected view growth rate in the final days, greatly increasing the likelihood of the final count landing in the 70M-80M bracket. From March 25, 2026, to early March 26, 2026, the '80-90M' option surged back from 69.5c to 93.5c, while the '90M+' option plummeted from 32c to 6c. This was due to a noticeable slowdown in the video's view growth as time progressed, leading the market to virtually confirm that the final count would settle between 80M and 90M. From March 25, 2026, 09:30 to March 25, 2026, 13:50, the '80-90M' option plummeted from 86.5c to 69.5c, while the '90M+' option surged from 11.5c to 27.5c. This was due to the market observing higher-than-expected view growth on Day 5. From March 23, 2026, to March 24, 2026, the '80-90M' option surged from 21c to 70.5c, while '70-80M' crashed from 39c to 1.75c, driven by the release of Day 3 and Day 4 view metrics. From March 21, 2026, to March 22, 2026, the '90M+' option saw high volatility, rising from 8c to 30c before settling at 25c, as the market debated whether the confirmed viral momentum was sufficient to challenge historic highs.