April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of '16°C' climbed from 25.5c to 37.5c, and '17°C' rose from 13c to 21.5c, as weather forecasts revised the expected high temperature for the weekend upwards closer to the resolution date. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the price of '14°C' plummeted from 29c to 1.75c, and '15°C' fell from a peak of 44.5c to 26.5c, reflecting a clear warming trend in weather models. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of '14°C' surged from 16c to a peak of 30c before settling at 20.5c, as weather forecasting sources (like Wunderground) slightly adjusted their weekend models downward, shifting the expected high from 15°C to around 14°C. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of '13°C' temporarily spiked from 3.5c to 8.8c before falling back, reflecting brief market concerns about the intensity of an incoming cold front.

This is a highly specific daily weather prediction market. Unless one is a local resident, traveler, or weather enthusiast, the general public rarely guesses the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a random day, giving it a high novelty and niche factor.

2026-04-17 - 2026-04-18, the price of the 23°C option surged from 27c to 49c, as approaching the resolution date, updated weather forecasts solidified the expectation that the high temperature will likely hit exactly 23°C. 2026-04-17 - 2026-04-18, the price of the 24°C option rose from 21.5c to 36c before dropping back to 24.5c, reflecting temporary fluctuations in market expectations due to minor updates in weather forecasting models.

Predicting the highest temperature of a specific city on a given day belongs to the niche but established weather prediction market. While ordinary people do not think about this daily, it is not completely absurd and has an objective, scientific forecasting basis.

From April 17 to April 18, 2026, the Yes price for 42°C surged from 28c to 47.5c, while 41°C plummeted from 26.5c to 9.5c, and 44°C dropped from 13.5c to 3.7c. This is because, as the target date approaches, weather forecasts have become significantly more accurate, with models consistently converging around 42°C and eliminating uncertainty for fringe options. No single option had experienced a severe price movement exceeding 10c over the past 3 days (as of the previous record).

Predicting the exact #2 movie on a streaming platform for a specific week is somewhat niche and novelty compared to mainstream political or financial events, but it remains a standard pop culture market.

April 16, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of 'Untold: Jail Blazers' plummeted from a peak of 47c to under 1c, falling completely out of contention for the top two spots. April 16, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of 'A Quiet Place Part II' further crashed from 25c to near zero, as daily viewership data confirmed it had been entirely pushed out of the top rankings. April 15, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the price of 'Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle' steadily declined from 32.5c to below 4c, losing all hope for the #2 spot. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, other options like 'Thrash' and 'Beast' also crashed from around 25c to under 5c, as newly released unlisted movies took over the top two spots.

While checking the weather is a daily habit, predicting the exact high temperature at a specific airport on a random date is a niche and arbitrary topic that average people wouldn't naturally ponder.

From 2026-04-18 to 2026-04-19, the Yes price for the 24°C option surged from 27.0¢ to 52.0¢, while the 23°C option saw a similar spike before settling around 41¢, as real-time afternoon temperature readings in Tokyo narrowed the highest temperature window between 23°C and 24°C. From 2026-04-17 to 2026-04-18, the Yes price for the 24°C option climbed from 29.5¢ to 44.0¢. This is due to meteorological models revising the daytime high forecast upwards as the resolution date approaches, making 24°C the most likely outcome. From 2026-04-17 to 2026-04-18, the 25°C option experienced a fluctuation, rising from 8.5¢ to a peak of 19.5¢ before settling at 14.5¢. This was driven by some models briefly projecting warmer extremes before the forecast stabilized.