May 9, 2026 - May 11, 2026, the price of the 28°C option surged from 21c to 45.5c, while the 30°C or higher option plummeted from 26c to 7.5c. This is because the latest weather forecast from the Hong Kong Observatory further confirmed the estimated maximum temperature for May 11 to be around 28°C, significantly reducing the probability of extreme high temperatures (30°C+) and solidifying the market consensus around 28°C.

May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of the 33°C option rose from 20c to a peak of 32c, and the 32°C option fluctuated sharply between 17c and 28c. This is because, as the resolution date approaches, updated weather forecasts narrowed the expected high to between 90°F and 91°F (32°C-33°C), driving market capital toward these core options. May 6, 2026 - May 9, 2026, no options experienced a drastic price movement of over 10c, indicating stable market expectations.

Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a niche but rational topic. While weather derivatives exist in traditional finance, it serves as a novelty, long-tail event in retail prediction markets.

May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the prices of high-temperature options plummeted: '19°C or higher' crashed from 38.5c to 3.45c, '18°C' fell from 28.5c to 11.5c, and '15°C' dropped from 22c to 5.35c. Meanwhile, '16°C' experienced severe volatility, surging to 38c before settling at 34c. The reason is the release of updated weather forecasts definitively confirming incoming rain and cooler temperatures, effectively eliminating extreme heat probabilities.

There is a significant divergence. Mainstream weather forecasts (meteorologists and authoritative weather agencies) predict rain at Munich Airport on May 11, with peak temperatures around 14°C to 15°C. However, the market is currently allocating the vast majority of probability to 16°C and 17°C (pricing their combined likelihood above 70%), severely underestimating the cooling effect of the expected rainfall [2].

May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the Yes price for the 29°C option surged from 9.5c to a peak of 32c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, updated weather forecasts slightly downgraded the expected peak high temperature, causing market funds to quickly gravitate toward this range. May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the Yes price for the 30°C option experienced significant volatility, swinging from 10.5c to 36.5c. This was caused by minor adjustments in rain probability and cloud cover predictions across different forecasting platforms, which directly impacted the anticipated daily high.

May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of the '76°F or higher' option surged from 67c to 93c, while the '74-75°F' option plunged from 19.5c to 3.2c. This was caused by the increased accuracy of weather prediction models as the date approaches, eliminating previous downside uncertainties and leading to a strong market consensus that the high temperature will exceed 76°F.