May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the 95+ option's price plummeted from 74c to 10.5c, as the influx of new reviews pushed the freshness score below 95% making it mathematically impossible to bounce back before settlement. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the Yes prices for all tiers (e.g., 65+, 75+, 85+) experienced massive surges. For instance, 85+ skyrocketed from 48.5c to over 90c. The reason is the release of the film's early Rotten Tomatoes score after the embargo lifted, landing at a stellar 94%-97%, vastly boosting market confidence.

Predicting the temperature of a specific city on a given date is a common niche weather market on prediction platforms. While not as widely followed as political elections, it has a regular participant base and is not an extremely absurd or unimaginable question.

May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026: The price of the 24°C option surged from 15.5c to 32.5c, and the 23°C option rose from 20.5c to 31.5c, while the 21°C option plummeted from 16.5c to 4.4c. This is due to meteorological models converging as the date approaches, ruling out lower temperature probabilities and locking the forecast around 23°C-24°C.

While weather forecasting is part of daily life, betting on the exact high temperature of a specific city on a particular day is a niche prediction market, appealing mainly to weather enthusiasts or locals, making it somewhat novel for the general public.

May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of the 18°C option surged from 25.5c to 42.5c, while the 14°C, 15°C, 16°C, 20°C, and 21°C options plummeted from around 24.5c to below 5c. This occurred because the market transitioned from an initial even distribution of liquidity to a price discovery phase reflecting the actual short-term weather forecast (around 18°C).

Predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a given day is a niche daily data prediction market. While weather forecasting is ubiquitous, ordinary people rarely ponder or track such highly specific and isolated figures unless they live there.

May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of 13°C surged from 21c to a peak of 56.5c, and 12°C increased from 21c to a high of 41.5c. Concurrently, the price of 14°C dropped from 19.5c to 3.5c. The reason is that as the date approaches, weather forecasts have become more precise, narrowing the expected high temperature down to the 12-13°C range and eliminating the likelihood of higher temperatures.