[Mandatory Task] Analyze the Order Book & Fundamentals for the 'UT-04 House Election Winner' market: Given the extremely low volume ($885), is there significant slippage risk in the bid-ask spread? Retrieve the district's historical Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) and the incumbent's recent approval ratings to assess if the current price accurately reflects the Republican Party's traditional advantage in this district.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Analyze the Order Book & Fundamentals for the 'UT-04 House Election Winner' market: Given the extremely low volume ($885), is there significant slippage risk in the bid-ask spread? Retrieve the district's historical Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) and the incumbent's recent approval ratings to assess if the current price accurately reflects the Republican Party's traditional advantage in this district.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Key Players Mining] Search for the latest candidate filings for Utah's 4th Congressional District (UT-04) in the 2026 cycle. Confirm if the Republican incumbent (e.g., Burgess Owens) has officially declared for re-election, or if there are any credible primary challengers or high-profile Democratic opponents that could threaten the seat's stability.

AI-powered analysis for: [Key Players Mining] Search for the latest candidate filings for Utah's 4th Congressional District (UT-04) in the 2026 cycle. Confirm if the Republican incumbent (e.g., Burgess Owens) has officially declared for re-election, or if there are any credible primary challengers or high-profile Democratic opponents that could threaten the seat's stability.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the opportunity cost of capital lock-up: With the election resolution in November 2026 still months away, calculate the potential Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of betting on the favorite (typically Republican) at current odds, and compare it against risk-free stablecoin yields in DeFi protocols (e.g., Aave/Compound) to determine if the trade is efficient.

AI-powered analysis for: [Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the opportunity cost of capital lock-up: With the election resolution in November 2026 still months away, calculate the potential Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of betting on the favorite (typically Republican) at current odds, and compare it against risk-free stablecoin yields in DeFi protocols (e.g., Aave/Compound) to determine if the trade is efficient.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Elections|$695 Vol|

228 days 21 hrs

UT-04 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Republican Party

YesNo

90.5¢

9.5¢

98¢

2¢

+7.5¢

0¢

Democratic Party

YesNo

8.5¢

91.5¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+6.5¢

AI Insights:

03.09 13:42 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Despite incumbent Burgess Owens announcing his retirement this week (March 2026), UT-04 remains a solid Republican stronghold (Cook PVI ~R+14). Reports confirm that incumbent US Rep. Mike Kennedy (currently representing UT-03) will run in UT-04 following redistricting, effectively maintaining 'incumbent advantage' for the GOP. With the new 2026 map designed to secure a 3R-1D delegation split, UT-04 is engineered to be safe Red. The current 90c price significantly undervalues the near-certainty of a Republican victory.

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Divergence

There is a divergence between market pricing (90%) and fundamental probability (>98%). Mainstream models rate UT-04 as 'Solid Republican,' especially with strong candidate Mike Kennedy running. The 10% market discount reflects the opportunity cost of capital (238 days to expiry) and liquidity premiums rather than genuine electoral risk.

UT-04 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

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