The rules contain a few nuanced risk points: 1) Resolution is triggered immediately upon announcement, regardless of when it takes effect; 2) If multiple people announce simultaneously, it resolves to the one who actually leaves first, or alphabetically by last name if simultaneous; 3) Being reassigned to another Cabinet position counts as leaving. These details could cause disputes during mass reshuffles or position changes.

May 3, 2026 - May 6, 2026: Chris Wright's price surged from 27c to 32c (after dropping to 10.8c), Howard Lutnick's dropped from 32.9c to 24.5c, and Pete Hegseth's fell from ~7c to 4.5c. This reflects rapid market reassessment of departure risks for these officials, particularly heightened speculation around energy and commerce positions.

May 4, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of 66-67°F climbed from 31.5c to 47c before dropping to 26.5c, driven by shifting high-temperature expectations from updated weather models. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of 68-69°F surged from 16c to 36.5c as the forecast temperature median trended slightly upward closer to the resolution day. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of 70-71°F rallied from 8c to 27c, owing to some meteorological forecasts indicating a possible brief warmup.

May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of the 66-67°F option plummeted from a high of 37.5c to 21.5c, while the 64-65°F option surged from 11.5c to 20.5c. This was driven by multiple weather forecasts (including Wunderground) significantly lowering their high-temperature expectations for May 6 from the low 70s to the 64-66°F range. May 5, 2026, the 70-71°F option plummeted from 20.5c to less than 2c, as updated cooler forecasts made temperatures above 70°F highly unlikely.

The market still prices 68-69°F as the most likely outcome (28c), with 66-67°F trailing at 21.5c. However, most updated mainstream forecasts, including the resolution source Wunderground [10], indicate a high of around 66°F for May 6, with some models even cooler [2]. The market appears to be lagging in fully absorbing the recent downward revisions in the weather forecast.

Between 2026-05-06 04:58 and 06:03, the price of the '22°C' option surged from 41c to 95.5c, while the '23°C' option plummeted from 47c to 5.5c, and the '24°C' option dropped from 7.1c to 0.6c. The reason is that as the actual temperature data for May 6 became available and clear throughout the day, the actual highest temperature record was essentially locked in the 22°C range. This caused market funds to rapidly concentrate on the only certain outcome, eliminating the uncertainty from the forecasts of previous days.

While weather forecasting relies on objective data, betting on the exact highest temperature of a specific inland city on a specific day has a narrow audience and low daily mainstream attention, giving it a certain degree of novelty.

May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of the 28°C option plummeted from 16c to 0.05c. The reason is that the weather forecast significantly revised the day's high temperature in Chongqing up to 87°F (approx. 30.5°C). As local time entered the afternoon and temperatures had already far exceeded 28°C, this option effectively lost any chance of resolving to Yes. May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026, prices remained relatively stable with no movements over 10 cents, reflecting no abrupt changes in the weather forecast at that time.