May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of '20°C or below' surged from 13c to 45c due to updated weather models adjusting the expected high temperatures downward to cooler ranges (around 19°C-20°C) as the date approached. May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of '22°C' dropped from 33.5c to 15c and then rebounded to 26.5c, reflecting market fluctuations as traders reacted to conflicting short-term meteorological updates.

Betting on the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a niche prediction market activity. While weather forecasts are part of daily life, the general public rarely predicts and trades on the exact daily high down to a single degree.

May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of the 18°C option dropped sharply from 27c to 13.5c (before bouncing back to 20c), while the 15°C option fell from 16c to 5c. This is because as the resolution date approaches, weather models have converged on a high of 16°C-17°C, significantly reducing the probability of cooler (15°C) or warmer (18°C) tail events. May 10, 2026 - May 13, 2026, no options experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents over the past 3 days.

Predicting the highest temperature on a specific day in a specific city is a relatively niche but not extremely rare daily guessing market, usually attracting only weather data enthusiasts or locals.

May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of the 16°C option dropped from a peak of 30.5c to 15c, and the 13°C option dropped from 21c to 9.5c. The reason is that as the date approaches, meteorological forecast models have eliminated extreme high or low temperature scenarios, narrowing the expected range to predominantly 14-15°C.

Weather prediction markets are common on betting platforms but remain moderately unconventional to the general public. While weather derivatives exist in traditional finance, ordinary people rarely bet on the exact temperature at a specific airport on a random day.

From 06:38 to 10:58 on May 14, 2026, the price of the 14°C option surged from 25.5c to 37.5c before pulling back slightly. This occurred because, as the resolution date approaches, the latest meteorological models and forecasts briefly pinpointed the high temperature in London on May 15 at 14°C, causing market capital to rapidly concentrate on this outcome. From 01:13 to 21:18 on May 14, 2026, the price of the 13°C option steadily climbed from 29.5c to 37.5c. This shift was driven by evening weather forecast updates suggesting temperatures might be slightly cooler than previously expected, making 13°C the most likely outcome.