April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, prices across all brackets plummeted. For instance, the Yes price for 55+ collapsed from 83c to 22.5c, and 60+ fell from 58c to 11.5c. This was caused by the official review embargo lifting or wider early reactions confirming poor film quality, leading to a complete reversal in market sentiment. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, prices for multiple brackets (e.g., 55+, 60+, 65+, 70+) surged significantly. The Yes price for 55+ rose from 42c to 76c, 60+ jumped from 26.5c to 56c, and 65+ spiked from 25.5c to 58c. This was driven by the review embargo lift or early critic leaks, leading to an overall market upgrade and heavy buying of passing-grade brackets.

There is moderate risk. The core definition relies on 'FDV' (Fully Diluted Valuation), which requires accurate total supply data that can be opaque or disputed at launch. Additionally, the 'most liquid price source' is slightly subjective; while typically DexScreener or Coingecko, early price volatility is high, and the specific timestamp (4:00 PM ET) pricing could be contentious.

April 13, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of the $50M option skyrocketed from 13.5c to 54c, the $40M option jumped from 14.5c to 29.5c, and the $70M option rose from 15c to 25c. This was caused by irrational buying or liquidity dry-ups, leading to a severe price inversion for higher valuation options and breaking the normal probability distribution logic. April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the $200M option slowly drifted down from 4c to 1.5c, reflecting a further loss of confidence in hyper-bullish valuations, but major liquidity had not yet corrected to reflect the latest presale valuation data.

There is a severe divergence between market pricing and fundamental logic. The current prediction market implies that the probability of FDV exceeding $50M (54%) is much higher than the probability of it exceeding $30M (27%), which is mathematically impossible. This inversion highlights the extreme lack of liquidity and effective market-making mechanisms in this specific market.

The rules explicitly distinguish 'definitively dropped' from vague statements like 'no charges for now,' and mandate an immediate 'No' resolution if an indictment occurs. The primary risk lies in the historically ambiguous rhetoric from the Trump administration, which could complicate the judgment of what constitutes a 'definitive announcement'.

The outcome of a criminal investigation into the Fed Chair has decisive implications for US monetary policy independence and macroeconomic expectations. Dropping the probe would remove significant uncertainty, benefiting the S&P 500 and stabilizing Treasury yields. Conversely, a formal indictment would likely trigger systemic panic, causing significant equity sell-offs and wild volatility in bonds and the US Dollar.

April 8, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the Yes price for the April 30 option spiked from 19.5c to 29.5c on April 9 before dropping back to 18c. This was likely driven by short-lived market rumors or speculative trading regarding an imminent end to the investigation, which quickly retreated due to a lack of official confirmation.