May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of the 24°C option surged from 1.5c to 75.4c, while the 26°C and 27°C options plummeted from 47c and 47c to less than 1c, respectively. The reason is that as actual temperature data for May 6 emerged, rain and cloudy conditions prevented the temperature from rising to the forecasted 26-27°C, prompting the market to reprice based on real-time observations. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the 27°C option surged from 24.5c to a peak of 53c, then stabilized around 47c; concurrently, the 26°C option rose from 23c to 42.5c. Meanwhile, the 28°C option plummeted from 20.5c to 3.5c. The reason is that as the date approached, meteorological forecasts ruled out the possibility of unusually high temperatures, pinning the expected maximum strictly within the 26-27 Celsius range.

The Hong Kong Observatory's official forecast on the morning of May 6 still indicated a maximum temperature of around 26 degrees, but the prediction market prices show a 75.4% probability for 24°C. This divergence exists because the prediction market aggressively corrected its pricing based on real-time intraday temperature dynamics (temperatures failed to rise as expected due to persistent clouds and rain), making it more agile than the morning's official forecast. [5][10]

May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of the 86-87°F option surged from 25c to a peak of 36.5c, while the 84-85°F option experienced a sharp volatility, dropping from 42.5c to 28c and bouncing back to 38c. This is because traders re-evaluated the specific high-temperature range based on real-time micro-adjustments in weather forecast models as the date approached. May 4, 2026, the 88-89°F option plummeted from 19c to 8.5c, reflecting the market's consensus that the probability of extreme high temperatures had largely been ruled out.

May 4, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of 66-67°F climbed from 31.5c to 47c before dropping to 26.5c, driven by shifting high-temperature expectations from updated weather models. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of 68-69°F surged from 16c to 36.5c as the forecast temperature median trended slightly upward closer to the resolution day. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of 70-71°F rallied from 8c to 27c, owing to some meteorological forecasts indicating a possible brief warmup.

May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of the 66-67°F option plummeted from a high of 37.5c to 21.5c, while the 64-65°F option surged from 11.5c to 20.5c. This was driven by multiple weather forecasts (including Wunderground) significantly lowering their high-temperature expectations for May 6 from the low 70s to the 64-66°F range. May 5, 2026, the 70-71°F option plummeted from 20.5c to less than 2c, as updated cooler forecasts made temperatures above 70°F highly unlikely.

The market still prices 68-69°F as the most likely outcome (28c), with 66-67°F trailing at 21.5c. However, most updated mainstream forecasts, including the resolution source Wunderground [10], indicate a high of around 66°F for May 6, with some models even cooler [2]. The market appears to be lagging in fully absorbing the recent downward revisions in the weather forecast.

While weather prediction is a relatively standard category within niche prediction markets, guessing the exact highest temperature of a specific day in Warsaw, Poland, remains a marginal and uncommon topic for the general public or traditional investors.

May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of '26°C or higher' plunged from 56.5c to 39.5c before rebounding slightly to 42c, due to updated weather forecasts confirming a potentially cooler daily high. May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of '24°C' spiked from 8.5c to 25c as forecasts converged on 24°C as the expected high for the day.

There is a divergence between the market and weather forecasts. Mainstream forecasts (like Google and Wunderground) predict a high of 76°F (24.4°C), which would round to 24°C or 25°C. However, the market assigns the highest probability to '26°C or higher' (~41.5%). This may be because traders expect the actual airport station readings to run hotter than public forecasts due to heat island effects or specific sun exposure, or because some open positions have not adjusted to the most recent forecast updates.