Between 05:23 and 06:28 on April 12, 2026, several options experienced drastic price changes. For example, the yes price for 28°C dropped from 44.5c to 12.5c, and 30°C dropped from 44.5c to 23c. This was due to the approaching resolution date and updated weather forecasts, which caused rapid adjustments in implied probabilities as the market concentrated bets on more precise temperature ranges (like 29°C and 30°C).

Although weather prediction markets exist on some platforms, forecasting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a specific day remains a relatively niche and localized recreational event.

The rules explicitly state resolution depends on the actual signing or enactment date of the bill, not the announcement date. This is a potential trap, as the lag between politicians announcing a deal and the actual legislative enactment could easily push the resolution into a subsequent date bracket.

There is a massive divergence between market prices and objective reality. The market implies every single one of the 23 players has a ~40% chance of winning, creating a cumulative probability approaching 1000%, which is mathematically impossible for a single-winner market. In reality, a few elite players like Ohtani should dominate the probability space, while fringe players should be priced under 1%.

While weather markets are a standard niche on prediction platforms, forecasting the exact daily temperature of a specific city on a specific date is a highly specialized novelty topic that the general public rarely thinks about.

Between April 11 and April 13, 2026, the Yes price for 13°C plummeted from 32c to 9c because the latest weather models largely ruled out temperatures reaching 13°C or higher, stabilizing the expected high at around 12°C. Between April 11 and April 13, 2026, the Yes prices for 11°C and 12°C steadily rose from 23c and 27c to 40c and 40.5c, respectively. This occurred as the forecast converged, making these two options the most likely resolution targets. Between April 10 and April 11, 2026, the Yes price for 11°C rose from 22c to 31c, 12°C rose from 28c to 39c, 13°C rose from 18c to 32c, and 10°C plummeted from 15c to 2c. This is because, as the expiration date approaches, weather models further locked the expected high temperature into the 11°C-13°C range, causing the probability of lower temperature options to plummet and middle options to rise. Between April 9 and April 10, 2026, the Yes price for 12°C surged from 17c to 32c, while the Yes price for 14°C dropped from 18c to 7c. This is because the latest weather forecast models slightly lowered the expected high temperature to the 11°C-12°C range, causing the probability of higher temperature options to plummet and the middle options to rise.