[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the order book depth (specifically the impact of low volume $20.0) and bid-ask spreads, and combine with the latest weather forecasts to assess if current odds for temperature options deviate from meteorological model projections.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the order book depth (specifically the impact of low volume $20.0) and bid-ask spreads, and combine with the latest weather forecasts to assess if current odds for temperature options deviate from meteorological model projections.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Core News Sourcing] Multi-Model Forecast Comparison: Search for and compare the latest maximum temperature forecasts for Chengdu Shuangliu Airport (ZUUU) on March 25, 2026, from GFS, ECMWF, and the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to identify the consensus range.

AI-powered analysis for: [Core News Sourcing] Multi-Model Forecast Comparison: Search for and compare the latest maximum temperature forecasts for Chengdu Shuangliu Airport (ZUUU) on March 25, 2026, from GFS, ECMWF, and the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to identify the consensus range.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Resolution Rules (ELI5)] Wunderground Data Precision: Explain how Wunderground records historical data for the 'Shuangliu Airport Station', specifically how it handles decimals (e.g., is 19.9°C recorded as 19°C or 20°C?) to clarify resolution criteria for edge cases.

AI-powered analysis for: [Resolution Rules (ELI5)] Wunderground Data Precision: Explain how Wunderground records historical data for the 'Shuangliu Airport Station', specifically how it handles decimals (e.g., is 19.9°C recorded as 19°C or 20°C?) to clarify resolution criteria for edge cases.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Key Variables Confirmation] Cloud & Precipitation Impact: Search for detailed weather conditions for Chengdu on March 25 (e.g., rain, cloud cover percentage) and analyze how these factors specifically suppress the day's maximum temperature.

AI-powered analysis for: [Key Variables Confirmation] Cloud & Precipitation Impact: Search for detailed weather conditions for Chengdu on March 25 (e.g., rain, cloud cover percentage) and analyze how these factors specifically suppress the day's maximum temperature.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Historical Frequency Statistics] Historical Temperature Backtest: Search historical data for the actual maximum temperatures in Chengdu on March 25 over the past 5 years (2021-2025) to calculate the average temperature baseline for this date.

AI-powered analysis for: [Historical Frequency Statistics] Historical Temperature Backtest: Search historical data for the actual maximum temperatures in Chengdu on March 25 over the past 5 years (2021-2025) to calculate the average temperature baseline for this date.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Data Source Reliability Check] Station Update Status: Verify if the 'Chengdu/ZUUU' station history on Wunderground has been updating normally over the past week and check for any risks of missing data or display delays.

AI-powered analysis for: [Data Source Reliability Check] Station Update Status: Verify if the 'Chengdu/ZUUU' station history on Wunderground has been updating normally over the past week and check for any risks of missing data or display delays.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Mainstream Divergence] App Forecast vs Market Odds: Compare the forecasted high for Chengdu on March 25 from iOS Weather (Weather Channel source) or AccuWeather against the highest-odds option currently on Polymarket to identify significant divergences.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mainstream Divergence] App Forecast vs Market Odds: Compare the forecasted high for Chengdu on March 25 from iOS Weather (Weather Channel source) or AccuWeather against the highest-odds option currently on Polymarket to identify significant divergences.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Opposing Arguments Retrieval] Extreme Weather Possibility: Search meteorological forums or news for warnings of 'late spring cold snaps' or sudden heatwaves in the Sichuan Basin in late March, listing risk factors that could deviate temperatures from the norm.

AI-powered analysis for: [Opposing Arguments Retrieval] Extreme Weather Possibility: Search meteorological forums or news for warnings of 'late spring cold snaps' or sudden heatwaves in the Sichuan Basin in late March, listing risk factors that could deviate temperatures from the norm.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Time Decay (Theta) Analysis] Forecast Accuracy Convergence: Analyze the average error margin of weather forecasts for the Chengdu region at 4 days out (T-4) versus 1 day out (T-1) to determine if now is the optimal time to place a bet.

AI-powered analysis for: [Time Decay (Theta) Analysis] Forecast Accuracy Convergence: Analyze the average error margin of weather forecasts for the Chengdu region at 4 days out (T-4) versus 1 day out (T-1) to determine if now is the optimal time to place a bet.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Historical Fractal Comparison] Recent Station Bias Correction: Compare the 'forecasted high' vs the 'actual recorded high' at Wunderground ZUUU station for yesterday and the day before to identify if the station has a systematic bias (reading higher or lower).

AI-powered analysis for: [Historical Fractal Comparison] Recent Station Bias Correction: Compare the 'forecasted high' vs the 'actual recorded high' at Wunderground ZUUU station for yesterday and the day before to identify if the station has a systematic bias (reading higher or lower).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Model Update Windows: List the specific times for the next data updates (e.g., 00Z/12Z) for major global weather models (GFS/ECMWF) covering Chengdu, predicting when market prices might experience high volatility.

AI-powered analysis for: [Potential Catalyst Prediction] Model Update Windows: List the specific times for the next data updates (e.g., 00Z/12Z) for major global weather models (GFS/ECMWF) covering Chengdu, predicting when market prices might experience high volatility.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Order Book Depth & Slippage] Low Liquidity Entry/Exit: Given the extremely low volume (20.0), qualitatively assess if a $10 entry would cause massive slippage and how to use Limit Orders to avoid losses.

AI-powered analysis for: [Order Book Depth & Slippage] Low Liquidity Entry/Exit: Given the extremely low volume (20.0), qualitatively assess if a $10 entry would cause massive slippage and how to use Limit Orders to avoid losses.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis] Normal Distribution Shape: Analyze if the current odds distribution follows a 'bell curve' centered around the forecasted temperature, and check if any outlier temperature options are mispriced (offering excessively high odds).

AI-powered analysis for: [Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis] Normal Distribution Shape: Analyze if the current odds distribution follows a 'bell curve' centered around the forecasted temperature, and check if any outlier temperature options are mispriced (offering excessively high odds).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Correlated Combo Bets Discovery] Portfolio Construction: Given the margin of error in temperature forecasts (typically ±2°C), suggest constructing a portfolio containing 'forecast, forecast+1, forecast-1' options to cover the error range.

AI-powered analysis for: [Correlated Combo Bets Discovery] Portfolio Construction: Given the margin of error in temperature forecasts (typically ±2°C), suggest constructing a portfolio containing 'forecast, forecast+1, forecast-1' options to cover the error range.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Fair Value] Probability Calculation Based on Model Mean: Take the average of three major weather model forecasts and, based on historical standard deviation, calculate the theoretical fair probability of hitting a specific temperature range (e.g., 19°C).

AI-powered analysis for: [Fair Value] Probability Calculation Based on Model Mean: Take the average of three major weather model forecasts and, based on historical standard deviation, calculate the theoretical fair probability of hitting a specific temperature range (e.g., 19°C).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Fair Value] Optimal Limit Order Placement: Addressing the scarcity of liquidity, formulate a specific limit order strategy—how many basis points above the best bid should you place an order to ensure execution without losing edge due to the wide spread?

AI-powered analysis for: [Fair Value] Optimal Limit Order Placement: Addressing the scarcity of liquidity, formulate a specific limit order strategy—how many basis points above the best bid should you place an order to ensure execution without losing edge due to the wide spread?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Stop-Loss Red Line Setting] Forecast Shift Response: Define a specific stop-loss indicator, such as 'if tomorrow's forecasted high drops by more than 2°C compared to today', to dictate an immediate sale of currently held high-temperature options.

AI-powered analysis for: [Stop-Loss Red Line Setting] Forecast Shift Response: Define a specific stop-loss indicator, such as 'if tomorrow's forecasted high drops by more than 2°C compared to today', to dictate an immediate sale of currently held high-temperature options.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Opportunity Cost of Capital] Lock-up Analysis: Calculate if the potential ROI of buying now and holding until March 25 settlement is sufficient to cover the opportunity cost of locking up funds for these 5 days (compared to risk-free DeFi yields).

AI-powered analysis for: [Opportunity Cost of Capital] Lock-up Analysis: Calculate if the potential ROI of buying now and holding until March 25 settlement is sufficient to cover the opportunity cost of locking up funds for these 5 days (compared to risk-free DeFi yields).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Low Liquidity] 'Stink Bid' Strategy: Provide guidance on placing extremely low buy orders (Stink Bids) for unlikely extreme temperatures (e.g., 14°C or below) in the thin order book to catch cheap shares from fat-finger errors.

AI-powered analysis for: [Low Liquidity] 'Stink Bid' Strategy: Provide guidance on placing extremely low buy orders (Stink Bids) for unlikely extreme temperatures (e.g., 14°C or below) in the thin order book to catch cheap shares from fat-finger errors.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[One-Page Trading Plan Generation] Synthesis: Synthesize current meteorological data to output a brief trading plan including: primary temperature target range, maximum entry cost, and an emergency exit strategy if rain is forecasted.

AI-powered analysis for: [One-Page Trading Plan Generation] Synthesis: Synthesize current meteorological data to output a brief trading plan including: primary temperature target range, maximum entry cost, and an emergency exit strategy if rain is forecasted.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 25?

Weather|$10.4k Vol|

1 days 5 hrs

Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 25? - AI Found +13.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.22 20:19

Top Undervalued

+13.5¢

17°C(Yes)

+9¢

19°C(No)

+8.5¢

21°C(No)

Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 25? AI analysis: • +13.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The core logic is based on resolution source consistency. This market resolves via Wunderground, whi...

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

17°C

YesNo

6.5¢

93.5¢

20¢

80¢

+13.5¢

0¢

19°C

YesNo

34¢

66¢

25¢

75¢

0¢

+9¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of '24°C or higher' crashed from 26¢ to 4.5¢. The reason was updated meteorological data closer to the date showing significantly lower temperatures (mainstream forecasts adjusted to around 18°C), causing the extreme heat thesis to collapse. March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of '21°C' spiked from 10¢ to 29¢ before retracting to 19.5¢. The reason was capital rotating out of the '24°C+' bucket attempting to find the next warm landing spot, before realizing forecasts had cooled even further.

Divergence

Significant divergence exists. Market prices imply the most likely high temperature is 20°C (27¢) or 19°C (26.5¢), with even 21°C (19.5¢) priced higher than 18°C. However, the Google/IBM model, which shares the same source as the resolution provider Wunderground, explicitly forecasts a high of 18°C. The market appears to be pricing in a 'heat bias' of about 2°C above the primary data source, likely referencing other models like AccuWeather (predicting 22°C) or reacting slowly to the cooling trend.