From 2026-03-20 to 2026-03-21, the price of the 14°C option surged from 17.5c to 33c (before correcting to 26c), as weather models likely adjusted upwards closer to the date, making it a primary contender. From the early morning to noon on 2026-03-21, the 15°C option rebounded rapidly from 19c to 32c, indicating market indecision and capital rotation between 14°C and 15°C. From the early morning to the morning of 2026-03-21, the 13°C option plummeted from 28c to 16c, likely because updated meteorological data suggested temperatures would exceed 13 degrees, causing early bettors to exit. From the afternoon of 2026-03-20 to the afternoon of 2026-03-21, the 16°C option dropped from 31c to 19.5c, signaling that the market is ruling out the higher end of the temperature spectrum.

Moderate divergence exists. Previous analysis highlighted mainstream forecasts centering on 13-14°C, yet the prediction market currently prices 15°C as the favorite at 29.5c (though 14°C is close behind). This suggests traders may be betting on the 'Urban Heat Island' effect specific to the EGLC station or reacting to a very recent warming trend in the models that exceeds the general 13-14°C consensus.