Highest temperature in Chicago on March 29?
Weather|$10.7k Vol|
time1 days 20 hrs

Highest temperature in Chicago on March 29? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 5 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+5.7¢
68-69°F(No)
+4.5¢
64-65°F(Yes)
+3.1¢
70-71°F(No)

Highest temperature in Chicago on March 29? AI analysis: • +5.7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest trading data, the 64-65°F option has the highest price (26.5 cents), followed by...
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Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 28?
Weather|$37.3k Vol|
time20 hrs 35 mins

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 28?

Top Undervalued
+27¢
70-71°F(No)
+19.4¢
76-77°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest NWS forecast, Southern California interior valleys will see significant warm...
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Movers
March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of the 76-77°F option rose from 18.5c to 29.5c. The reason is that weather models have become more confident that offshore winds will clear the coastal marine layer and bring significant warming this weekend. March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of the 67°F or below option plummeted from 24.5c to 3.15c, as the impending heatwave effectively ruled out the possibility of anomalous extreme cold.
Divergence
Market pricing is concentrated in the 74-77°F range, whereas some mainstream outlets like AccuWeather forecast a high of 86°F for Los Angeles on Saturday. This divergence stems from the microclimate differences between 'Downtown LA' and 'Los Angeles International Airport (LAX)'. Market participants correctly recognize the cooling effect of the marine layer at the coastal LAX location, thus not blindly following the downtown high-temperature forecasts.
AI Analysis
Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest market data for the 'Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 28' event, analyze the low volume ($67) liquidity and bid-ask spreads for the top temperature ranges (e.g., 68-69°F vs 72-73°F), and update the fair value assessment based on the latest NWS 7-day forecast.
Highest temperature in Atlanta on March 28?
Weather|$113.9k Vol|
time20 hrs 35 mins

Highest temperature in Atlanta on March 28?

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
66-67°F(No)
+7¢
70-71°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As the target date (March 28) approaches, the latest weather forecast models have further converged....
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Movers
March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of '68-69°F' surged from 25.5c to 34.5c. The reason is that as the settlement date approaches, the latest meteorological data further confirmed the highly probable outcome of this temperature range. March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of '55°F or below' crashed from 25.5c to 0.9c, while moderate ranges like '68-69°F' and '70-71°F' surged from 17.5c and 17c to around 30c and 26c respectively. This occurred because meteorological models ruled out earlier fears of an extreme cold front or wedge setup. Forecasts stabilized on mild weather, prompting the market to rapidly unwind previous hedge positions.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the corresponding Event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks based on current Atlanta (KATL) weather forecasts.
Highest temperature in Miami on March 28?
Weather|$26.7k Vol|
time20 hrs 35 mins

Highest temperature in Miami on March 28?

Top Undervalued
+14.5¢
84-85°F(No)
+13¢
80-81°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With only about 2 days left until resolution, the current market expectation for the high temperatur...
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Movers
Between March 24 and March 26, 2026, the price of the '73°F or below' option plummeted from 25.5c to 1.05c, '74-75°F' from 11.5c to 2.05c, and '76-77°F' from 14.5c to 1.75c, as the expected cold front did not materialize and low-temperature forecasts were significantly revised upwards. Between March 24 and March 26, 2026, the price of the '78-79°F' option dropped from 23c to 8.5c, and '80-81°F' from 30.5c to 21.5c, indicating an upward shift in the forecasted central tendency. Between March 24 and March 26, 2026, the price of the '82-83°F' option surged from 23.5c to a peak of 39.5c before settling at 33c, and the '86-87°F' option climbed from 8.5c to 16c, reflecting an adjustment of temperature forecasts towards higher ranges.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest weather forecasts for Miami on March 28, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the extremely low liquidity ($5.0 volume) and order book spread, and update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risks for each temperature range.
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 28?
Weather|$23.2k Vol|
time20 hrs 35 mins

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 28?

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
27°C(No)
+6¢
25°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest forecast from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) on March 26, the maximum tempe...
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Movers
From March 26, 2026 02:30 to March 26, 2026 11:10, the price of the '28°C or higher' option surged from 9c to 23.5c, likely due to speculative buying by some traders based on intraday local temperature fluctuations or outdated forecasts, despite official downgrades. From March 24, 2026 to March 26, 2026, the price of the '26°C' option steadily climbed from 18c to 38.5c, as the Hong Kong Observatory updated its forecast, revising the maximum temperature for March 28 down from 27°C to 26°C.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence between market pricing and mainstream forecasts. The prediction market still assigns a large probability (over 55%) to 27°C and 28°C or higher. However, the latest official automatic regional weather forecast and 9-day forecast from the Hong Kong Observatory clearly indicate that due to showers, the maximum temperature on March 28 will drop to 26°C. The market is showing a noticeable lag in pricing this new information.
AI Analysis
Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest weather forecast for March 28 from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), and combining this with the extremely low trading volume ($15) on Polymarket, analyze whether current odds deviate from the official forecast and assess the slippage risk due to lack of liquidity.
Don Lemon charges dropped?
Politics|$12.6k Vol|
time64 days 8 hrs

Don Lemon charges dropped?

Top Undervalued
+17¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Although market sentiment has deteriorated sharply following the price crash on March 15-16 (-11c), ...
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Rule Risk
The primary risk here is 'Time Horizon Risk'. Federal criminal cases are notoriously slow; the window between an indictment (late Jan) and May 31 is extremely tight (approx. 4 months). Since Lemon has publicly vowed to 'fight the charges', a quick plea deal (which could trigger a 'Yes' if reduced to a misdemeanor) is less likely. If the case is simply 'pending' or 'ongoing' at the deadline, the market resolves to 'No'. Bettors relying on his innocence may lose simply due to procedural delays.
Exotics
This qualifies as a high-score exotic market due to its specific 'Future Scenario' narrative. It relies on a detailed hypothetical timeline (2026) involving the arrest of a celebrity journalist by a specific administration (Trump/Bondi) under controversial circumstances. It is a bet on a cultural/political proxy war rather than a standard financial or sports outcome.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The legal consensus (based on the Judge's 'frivolous' comment) leans heavily towards the case eventually being dismissed or significantly reduced. However, the prediction market price (23.5c) implies a very low probability of success. This divergence stems from a mismatch between 'Case Outcome' and 'Time Constraint': experts expect Lemon to win eventually, but traders doubt he will win before May 31.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the bid/ask depth given the $11,986 volume. Combine this with the specific legal charges from Don Lemon's Jan 29, 2026 arrest (felony vs. misdemeanor) to update the fair value assessment of charges being 'dropped or reduced' by May 31, and alert on slippage risks due to low liquidity.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
68-69°F
YesNo
9.75¢
90.25¢
4¢
96¢
0¢
+5.7¢
64-65°F
YesNo
21.5¢
78.5¢
26¢
74¢
+4.5¢
0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
From 2026-03-25 to 2026-03-27, the price of '53°F or below' plummeted from 24.5c to 2.5c, as weather forecasts indicated significantly warmer temperatures. From 2026-03-25 to 2026-03-27, the price of '56-57°F' crashed from 26.5c to 2.5c, due to upward revisions in temperature expectations. From 2026-03-25 to 2026-03-27, the price of '58-59°F' fell sharply from 24.0c to 8.0c, also driven by warmer weather forecasts. From 2026-03-25 to 2026-03-27, the price of '60-61°F' decreased from 26.5c to 16.5c, experiencing some volatility in between. From 2026-03-25 to 2026-03-27, the price of '64-65°F' surged from 15.5c to 26.5c, becoming the new favored range in the market. From 2026-03-25 to 2026-03-27, the price of '66-67°F' dipped and then recovered to 15.5c, reflecting uncertainty in the forecasts.

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