Arbitrage Plan: Buy No shares for India (currently priced around 97.1c). Plan Description: Since the event deadline (Feb 28) has already passed and it is a known fact that no country joined, ...

The core resolution condition of this market is joining the Board of Peace by February 28, 2026. The...

There is a significant date discrepancy: the title states 'by March 31', but the rule text explicitly sets the deadline as 'February 28, 2026', which creates confusion for traders. Additionally, diplomatic language is notoriously vague (distinguishing 'agreement in principle' from 'formal joining'), making the interpretation of 'definitive announcement' subjective and prone to disputes.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' on the 'March 31' option (current price approx 90.05c). Plan Description: Because the rules require a continuous 14-day period without military action, and strikes occurred a...

Per market rules, a continuous 14-day period without military action is required for a 'Yes' resolut...

The definition of 'continuous 14-day period without military action' is complex. Key risks include: 1. Exclusion of proxy actions (Hezbollah, Houthis), which contradicts the public intuition of conflict 'ending' since proxy warfare is often continuous. 2. The requirement for 'official acknowledgment' or 'consensus of credible reporting' can be problematic in an information warfare context, leading to disputes over the origin of attacks (e.g., whether it originated from Iranian soil).

This event is directly tied to Middle East geopolitical stability and is highly sensitive for Crude Oil prices. Failure to resolve (i.e., not meeting the 14-day peace window) implies escalation, boosting oil and safe-haven assets (Gold). Conversely, confirming a peace window would remove the risk premium, benefiting equities. It has significant hedging value.

March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the 'April 7' option price crashed from 50.5c to 15.0c, as the market realized recent military actions mathematically constrained the possibility of a full 14-day peace window before April 7. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the 'April 15' option price surged from 19.5c to 31.5c (+12c) due to Trump's tweet regarding 'productive talks,' which triggered overly optimistic sentiment for a short-term ceasefire, despite subsequent denials from Iran. March 20, 2026 - March 23, 2026, medium-term options saw a technical rebound, with 'April 15' recovering from 18.5c to 24.5c, marking a sentiment repair after the previous crash.

The market still assigns a ~12% probability to the ultra-short-term option (March 31), which blatantly contradicts the strict mathematical logic of the 14-day rule given recent strikes. Common sense and calendar math show it is impossible to accumulate 14 peaceful days by March 31, reflecting that some traders may not have read the rules carefully or are trading on irrational hope.

As of March 25, 2026, the IDF's ground operations have met the 'major ground offensive' criteria of ...

While 'major ground offensive' is specifically defined (1,000+ troops entering non-controlled territory), verifying exact troop numbers and defining 'controlled territory' can be difficult in the fog of war. Media reports often use ambiguous terms (e.g., 'limited incursion' vs. 'full-scale invasion'), creating potential disputes over whether the threshold was met. The March 31 deadline is clear, though timezone differences (ET vs. local) should be noted.

A major Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon would mark a significant escalation in the Middle East conflict, likely triggering fears of oil supply disruptions and spiking Crude Oil prices. Risk-off sentiment would benefit Gold, while likely causing panic selling in equities (S&P 500). If the conflict risks spiraling out of control, it could also impact US Treasury yields (flight to safety lowering yields).

As of March 25, 2026, 'Terrorist' has reached 99.95c, strongly indicating Trump has already posted t...

This is a classic 'Prop Bet' focused on the specific social media behavior of a public figure. It is unrelated to mainstream finance or sports, relying purely on entertaining predictions of an individual's behavioral patterns, making it a high-novelty market.

This event is directly correlated with Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), as engagement on Truth Social drives its value. A negative post regarding 'Boeing' could cause short-term intraday noise for BA stock. Furthermore, rhetoric involving 'Ayatollah' or 'Terrorist' suggests geopolitical tension, potentially carrying minor sentiment impact for Crude Oil.

March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, 'Terrorist' surged from 61.5c to 99.95c as Trump highly likely posted the term, bringing the market to near-resolution. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, 'NATO' crashed from 89c to 38c, 'Democrat Shutdown' from 65c to 38c, and 'Panican' from 63c to 42.5c. This occurred because, despite high news momentum in the preceding days, Trump failed to actually post these terms on Truth Social, leading to a long squeeze and rapidly cooling expectations. March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, 'NATO' surged from 46c to 86c due to Trump's threat to 'throw Spain out of NATO' and impose tariffs over defense spending, fueling high expectations for the term. March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, 'Panican' anomalously surged from 28c to 63c despite a lack of clear public news or posts, possibly driven by insider speculation, expected typos, or market manipulation. March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, 'Terrorist' rose from 46c to 79c, attributed to Trump's threats to arrest Somali immigrants during the DHS shutdown and continued rhetoric against Iran as a 'state sponsor of terrorism'. March 20, 2026 - March 24, 2026, 'Nasty' maintained high levels above 65c (up from 41c), reflecting sustained reaction to Mueller's death and attacks on Democratic congresswomen during the shutdown.

As the Faroe Islands general election (March 26, 2026) approaches, the market continues to highly fa...

For Faroese locals or Nordic politics observers, this is a standard political prediction. However, for the majority of global prediction market participants, the Faroe Islands (an autonomous territory of Denmark) election is a niche event with relatively low mainstream attention.

March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, Beinir Johannesen's price surged from 74c to 95.5c. The reason is that as election day (March 26) nears, consensus on a victory for the right-wing Fólkaflokkurin party has solidified, causing capital to accelerate the dumping of incumbent PM Aksel's positions and flow into Beinir, creating a 'winner-takes-all' scenario. March 20, 2026 - March 22, 2026, Beinir Johannesen's price surged from 51.5c to 85.5c, while Aksel V. Johannesen's price collapsed from 28.5c to 5.5c, and Bárður á Steig Nielsen's price crashed from 29c to 3.8c. The reason was that polling data confirmed the absolute dominance of the right-wing coalition, causing the market to lose all confidence in centrist and incumbent candidates.