Highest temperature in Chongqing on April 4?
Weather|$16.6k Vol|
time1 days 1 hrs

Highest temperature in Chongqing on April 4? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.02 19:40
Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
28°C(No)
+5.5¢
25°C(Yes)
+4.8¢
24°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Chongqing on April 4? AI analysis: • +7.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market prices show that the sum of implied probabilities is slightly above 100%, indicat...
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March Inflation US - Annual
Economy|$3.1m Vol|
time6 days 13 hrs

March Inflation US - Annual

Top Undervalued
+0.4¢
≤2.0%(No)
+0.2¢
2.7%(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With only a week remaining until the BLS releases the March CPI data on April 10, macroeconomic indi...
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Hedging
Nasdaq 100
US 10Y Yield
Gold
S&P 500
DXY
US CPI data is a critical input for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. An unexpectedly high inflation reading (e.g., ≥2.8%) would directly push up US Treasury yields (US 10Y Yield), strengthen the Dollar (DXY), and pressure risk assets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Conversely, a significantly lower-than-expected reading (≤2.0%) could be seen as a signal for rate cuts, benefiting equities and Gold. This is a high-correlation, high-impact macro hedging event.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Access the Polymarket page for "March Inflation US - Annual". Given the low liquidity (~$7.5k volume), analyze the bid-ask spread and order book depth specifically for the core 2.3%-2.6% buckets. Determine if the current odds distribution reflects true macroeconomic consensus or is distorted by illiquidity, and calculate the potential slippage risk for entry.
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
Politics|$21.4k Vol|
time87 days 13 hrs

Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+2.9¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market price (~9c) is significantly overvalued, likely driven by trader confusion regard...
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Exotics
This is an extreme political tail-risk event. While topics like 'Texit' are discussed in certain political circles, the likelihood of a genuine full floor vote in a state legislature is historically very low in the modern era. It qualifies as a political spectacle and is a highly unconventional prediction.
Hedging
US 10Y Yield
DXY
S&P 500
If any state legislature actually holds a full floor vote on this, even if the measure is doomed to fail, it would be viewed as a major escalation in US political polarization and instability. Such 'constitutional crisis' level news could trigger market concerns about long-term US stability, causing short-term shocks to the Dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields, and depressing risk appetite in equities.
Divergence
The market pricing implies a near 9% chance of a state legislative secession vote, which is completely disconnected from the political reality. Mainstream political analysis and legislative tracking show that key 'at-risk' states (NH, TX) either have no active bills (or bill content is misinterpreted) or are out of session. Market sentiment is being driven by outdated headlines and social media noise rather than real-time legislative facts.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest legislative updates from key states like Texas (TEXIT) and New Hampshire, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth for 'Yes' and 'No', and update the fair value and risk assessment considering the remaining 2026 legislative session window (March-June).
Ledger IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
Crypto|$15.9k Vol|
time637 days 18 hrs

Ledger IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

Top Undervalued
+54.1¢
$2B(Yes)
+36.9¢
$1B(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The previously observed logical inversion in market pricing (e.g., the $4B option pricing lower than...
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Rule Risk
Definition ambiguity risk exists. The rule strictly defines market cap as 'outstanding shares multiplied by closing price', which is the standard secondary market definition. However, IPO valuations cited in media often refer to 'Fully Diluted Valuation' (including option pools). For tech firms, the fully diluted figure can be 10-20% higher than the market cap based on outstanding shares. If Ledger claims a $4B valuation (fully diluted) but the strict market cap is only $3.5B, the market would resolve to 'No', contradicting public headlines.
Hedging
COIN
BTC
HOOD
Ledger's valuation is highly positively correlated with broader crypto market sentiment, specifically Bitcoin (BTC) prices. If BTC crashes pre-IPO (as mentioned in search results dropping from $126k to $70k), Ledger's hardware wallet sales projections and valuation would suffer a structural shock. Coinbase (COIN), as a public crypto infrastructure peer, serves as a direct pricing anchor; its multiple compression would drag down Ledger.
Movers
March 27, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the $1B option fell from 75.2c to 55.8c, a drop of nearly 20c, indicating a shake in short-term certainty or capital rotation regarding Ledger's successful IPO or listing at such a low valuation. March 13, 2026 - March 15, 2026, the price of the $4B option crashed from 49c to 12c, a 75% drop, directly causing the severe price inversion at the time (falling below the $5B option). Meanwhile, the $1B option rebounded from 70.9c to 81.4c, indicating increased market confidence in the IPO taking place, but a breakdown in the pricing mechanism for specific valuation ranges. February 23, 2026 - February 24, 2026, the price of the $4B option surged from 26c to 51.5c, reflecting an overheated market reaction to high valuation targets, briefly exceeding the $3B option. February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, the price of the $4B option rose from 21c to 37c, a delayed reaction to rumors of Ledger seeking a $4 billion valuation.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data for the 'Ledger IPO market cap' event on Polymarket. Given the low volume (~$6,300), analyze the bid-ask spread depth between different valuation options (e.g., $1B vs $7B) and assess whether entering now carries significant slippage risk.
Bank of Korea decision in April?
Economy|$38.1k Vol|
time6 days 13 hrs

Bank of Korea decision in April?

Top Undervalued
+1¢
No Change(No)
+0.6¢
Decrease(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than a week remaining until the Bank of Korea's April monetary policy meeting, market expe...
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Hedging
KRW=X
EWY
The Bank of Korea's interest rate decision directly impacts the Korean Won (KRW) and the Korean equity market (e.g., EWY ETF). An unexpected hike or cut would cause volatility in the KRW exchange rate and significantly affect the valuation of Korea's export-oriented companies. While it serves as a liquidity bellwether for Asia, its impact on global majors like the S&P 500 is relatively contained.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the order book for the 'Bank of Korea decision in April?' event to analyze the bid-ask depth for 'No Change' vs 'Decrease', and re-evaluate the fair value of current odds based on recent BOK officials' statements regarding inflation and household debt.
NY-08 House Election Winner
Elections|$16.3k Vol|
time213 days 13 hrs

NY-08 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+5.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
NY-08 is the political stronghold of House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, boasting a Cook PVI of...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest campaign updates for NY-08 (Hakeem Jeffries' seat), visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book structure amidst the extremely low liquidity ($114), and update the assessment of fair value and capital lock-up risks for this "safe blue district."
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
28°C
YesNo
27.5¢
72.5¢
20¢
80¢
0¢
+7.5¢
25°C
YesNo
5.5¢
94.5¢
11¢
89¢
+5.5¢
0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Exotics
Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a relatively niche trivia topic. Ordinary people usually look at general forecasts rather than betting on exact daily integers, though weather derivatives are a known and quantifiable category in prediction markets.
Movers
March 31, 2026 - April 2, 2026: The price of '27°C' surged from 13.5c to 30.5c, driven by updated meteorological models closer to the forecast date significantly raising the expected probability of this temperature. March 31, 2026 - April 2, 2026: The price of '26°C' plummeted from 25.5c to 15.5c, as weather models gradually shifted towards higher temperatures, reducing the likelihood of this slightly cooler option. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026: The price of '28°C' surged from 12.5c to 30.5c, driven by updated meteorological models closer to the forecast date, significantly raising the expected probability of this temperature. March 30, 2026 - April 1, 2026: The price of '23°C' steadily declined from 10.5c to 5.5c, indicating that the possibility of lower temperatures is being further ruled out. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026: The price of '22°C or below' plummeted from 28c to 5c, as weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of a significant temperature drop. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026: The price of '23°C' experienced severe volatility, dropping from 26c to 4.5c before rebounding to 17.5c, indicating significant market disagreement on the lower bound of the forecast models. March 30, 2026 - March 30, 2026: The price of '25°C' spiked briefly from 21.5c to 31c before quickly retracing, likely due to a liquidity shock from a single large trade.

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