On April 15, 2026, the Yes price for the 24°C option plunged from 25.5c to 12.5c, as updated forecasts closer to the date significantly reduced the probability of temperatures reaching that high.

Predicting the highest temperature on a specific day in a specific city is a niche forecasting market. While weather prediction is common, it's not a mainstream focus for the general public.

Betting on the daily high temperature of a specific city is a niche but standard prediction market variant. While weather derivatives are common in professional finance, predicting the exact daily temperature in Lagos, Nigeria holds moderate novelty and amusement for retail traders.

From 2026-04-15 00:33 to 2026-04-15 01:38, the Yes price for 34°C plummeted from 42c to 26.5c, 35°C dropped from 43.5c to 24c, and 31°C fell from 26c to 12c. This was caused by updated weather models showing incoming thunderstorms and rain which significantly reduced the probability of extreme high temperatures, leading to a sharp sell-off in the higher temperature brackets.

The market prices assign disproportionately high probabilities to 34°C, 35°C, and 36°C (trading around 24c-26c each), whereas mainstream weather forecasts (including Wunderground and others) consistently predict highs of around 31°C to 32°C [3]. This divergence is likely due to traders anchoring to historical average high temperatures for Lagos in April (which are typically higher) [6] without fully pricing in the dampening effect of the recent severe thunderstorm warnings.

There is a severe divergence between market prices and real-world weather forecasts. Forecasts indicate a high around 31°C, yet the prediction market prices 34°C to 37°C at incredibly high probabilities (25-26c each), which is virtually impossible. Additionally, the sum of YES prices is massively > 100%, indicating a lack of efficient market makers correcting the mispricing.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature of a specific city belongs to the niche 'weather' market category. While the average person doesn't typically ponder Jakarta's exact temperature on a random day, such markets have become standard derivatives on prediction platforms (like Polymarket or Kalshi), making it moderately exotic.

April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the Yes price for 34°C plummeted from 32c to 18.5c, as the approaching expiration date brought more accurate short-term weather forecasts, leading the market to heavily discount the probability of the temperature reaching 34°C.