April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of the 21°C option surged from 29c to 42.5c, and the 22°C option climbed from 12c to a peak of 26.5c, while the 19°C option plummeted from 23c to 5.5c. This is due to the nearing resolution date and updated weather forecasts indicating a significant warming trend on April 18, pushing expected highs to around 22°C.

The market currently prices the combined probability of 20°C and 21°C at over 69%, whereas mainstream weather forecasts predict a high of 72-73°F (around 22-23°C) for Tokyo on April 18. The market is significantly underestimating the likelihood of 22°C and above, indicating a potential information lag.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of the 17°C option surged from 19.5c to 50c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, updated meteorological models have increasingly aligned on 17°C as the most likely high temperature. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of the 18°C option briefly rose from 20.5c to 33.5c before settling back to 28.5c, reflecting minor residual uncertainty between 17°C and 18°C, though the market is gradually leaning towards 17°C.

While weather prediction markets exist in niche circles, predicting the exact high temperature in a specific city on a random date is highly unusual and niche for the general public.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of '26°C or higher' surged from 45.5c to 98.9c. This occurred because, as the resolution date approached, weather forecast data became highly certain, eliminating the possibility of temperatures below 26°C. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the prices of '24°C' and '25°C' plummeted from 21.5c each to under 2c, as market confidence shifted entirely to the highest temperature bracket.

Between April 16 and April 17, 2026, the price of the 30°C option surged from 20.5c to a peak of 37.5c, and the 29°C option rose from 21.5c to 35c. Meanwhile, the 31°C option fluctuated widely between 15c and 27c. This was caused by updated and more precise weather forecasts narrowing the expected high temperature to the 29°C-30°C range as the resolution date approaches.

Somewhat niche but standard for prediction markets. While weather markets are common on such platforms, predicting the exact highest temperature range for a specific city on a given day is rarely considered by the general public.

2026-04-16 to 2026-04-17, the price of the '32°C or higher' option surged from 47.5c to 94.5c, while lower temperature brackets like '31°C', '30°C', and '29°C' plummeted. This massive shift occurred because, as the resolution date approaches, definitive weather forecasts (Wunderground forecasting a high of 92°F/33°C) became available, heavily favoring the highest temperature bracket and largely eliminating the probability of lower outcomes.