Synthesizing the latest specific point forecasts from Google Weather (81-82°F), Weather.com (82°F), ...

March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of '84-85°F' surged from 17c to 27.5c, driven by the latest NWS area forecast discussion explicitly mentioning afternoon temperatures climbing into the 'mid-upper 80s,' sparking a rush of bets on warmer outcomes. March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of '78-79°F' crashed from 25.5c to 7c, as meteorological models converged to rule out cooler scenarios and confirmed a warming trend.

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream commercial weather apps (Google/Weather.com/Wunderground) explicitly forecast point values of 81-82°F, favoring the '80-81°F' and '82-83°F' buckets. However, prediction market traders appear to be pricing in the qualitative 'mid-upper 80s' commentary from NWS discussions, pushing '84-85°F' to 27.5c, a higher probability than suggested by the automated model outputs alone.

While the official NEA forecast warns of highs up to 36°C for Singapore on March 23, this typically ...

This is a typical weather prediction market. While less mainstream than sports or politics for the general public, it is a standard niche category within prediction markets. It focuses on a specific physical parameter (temperature). It is not absurdly exotic, but might seem obscure to those outside the specific geographic region.

March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of [36°C or higher] crashed from 25.5c to 3.15c, while [33°C] surged from 17c to 38c. The reason is updated meteorological models and market realization that despite the 'island-wide' high heat forecast, the resolution location (Changi Airport) is subject to cooling Northeast monsoon winds (sea breeze). This, combined with some international models shifting to cloudy/rainy forecasts, triggered a sell-off in the extreme heat options.

Significant 'Location Mismatch' divergence exists. Mainstream media (e.g., Straits Times) citing NEA forecasts highlight '36°C highs', reflecting the inland maximums. However, the prediction market is accurately pricing the specific 'Changi Airport' coastal station, which is typically 2-3°C cooler due to the sea breeze. Consequently, the market price (~33°C) is substantially lower than the media headline number (36°C).

This is an extreme case of market mispricing. With less than 24 hours to settlement, the resolution ...

March 21-22, 2026, the price of '16°C or higher' surged from ~8c to 56.8c, as the market erroneously traded on KMA's high-temperature forecasts for downtown Seoul (16-18°C), ignoring the temperature differential at the airport location. March 21-22, 2026, the price of '13°C' crashed from ~30c to 2.3c, as herd mentality drove capital into the high-temp options, leaving the option most aligned with meteorological models (Wunderground forecasts 13°C) severely oversold.

There is a total divergence between market implied probabilities (16°C+ > 50%) and the resolution source weather forecast (13°C). Mainstream media is reporting warming in Seoul (~17°C), but traders are ignoring that the prediction market specifies Incheon Airport (13°C) as the resolution location.

Latest weather forecasts for March 23 (2 days to resolution) indicate a significant cooling trend dr...

While weather is a common topic, predicting the exact high temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport for a specific future date (March 23, 2026) is a relatively niche and specific market that most people would not naturally consider without prompting.

March 21, 2026 - March 21, 2026: The price of 16°C plummeted from 31.5c to 18.5c, and 17°C crashed from 27c to 11.5c. Reason: As the resolution date (March 23) approached, updated weather models incorporated rain forecasts, invalidating the previously dominant 'warm weather' (17-18°C) thesis and causing a capital flight to cooler options. March 21, 2026 - March 21, 2026: The price of 14°C surged from 17c to 25.5c, and 15°C rose from 26.5c to 31c. Reason: The market aggressively repriced specifically for the new consensus forecast of 14-15°C. March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026: Prices for 11°C and 12°C both saw drops exceeding 10c. Reason: Early models ruled out the possibility of an extreme cold snap.

As the forecast date (March 23) approaches, major weather sources have tightly converged on a high b...

From March 19 to March 21, 2026, the price of '50-51°F' surged from 17.5c to 41c, while '60°F or higher' (crashed from 25c to <1c) and '54-55°F' (plummeted from 26.5c to 8.5c) saw massive sell-offs. The reason is that weather models (GFS/ECMWF) reached a consensus confirming a cold front and thick cloud cover for March 23, effectively eliminating the 'warm tail' risk previously priced in, driving capital heavily into the core 50-53°F range.