May 4, 2026 - May 6, 2026: Rory McIlroy's price surged from 22c to a peak of 38.5c before settling at 32c, driven by abnormal volatility due to low market liquidity and speculative early betting. May 4, 2026 - May 6, 2026: Cameron Young's price jumped from 18c to 30.5c, similarly reflecting irrational inflation in a low-liquidity market.

The market prices for certain players (e.g., Cameron Young and initially Rory McIlroy) imply Top 5 probabilities exceeding 30%, which diverges significantly from mainstream golf prediction models like DataGolf. In highly competitive golf tournaments, even for the world's best players, the single-event probability of a Top 5 finish rarely exceeds 25%-30% consistently. This divergence is primarily due to low liquidity in the early prediction market and the impact of a few large trades.

May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of 19°C surged from 31c to 47.5c, and 20°C rose from 18.5c to 31.5c. Conversely, 17°C plummeted from 20.5c to 5.1c. This was caused by updated short-term weather forecasting models ruling out lower temperatures and slightly increasing the expected maximum temperature.

May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of the 60-61°F option surged from 21c to 40.5c, and 58-59°F surged from 22c to 37.5c, while 64-65°F plummeted from 19.5c to 2.3c. The reason is that as the date approaches, weather forecasts have converged, stabilizing the expected high around 59-60°F and ruling out higher temperature possibilities.

On May 6, 2026, the price for the 54-55°F option plummeted from 26c to 8c, driven by updated weather model outputs that significantly lowered expectations for this warmer bracket. Between May 5 and May 6, 2026, the 50-51°F and 52-53°F options also saw volatility exceeding 10 cents, reflecting market adjustments to shifting weather forecasts regarding the timing of a passing cold front.

Polymarket prices currently imply the highest probability for the 52-53°F bracket (38.5%), followed by 50-51°F (24%). However, the latest forecasts from mainstream meteorological agencies (like NWS and AccuWeather) consistently predict a low around 49°F. The market is pricing in a warmer outcome by 3-4°F, indicating a significant divergence, potentially due to traders overweighting the urban heat island effect at KLGA.

May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of 19°C surged from 14.5c to nearly 100c because, approaching the settlement date, the latest Wunderground observation or forecast data explicitly showed Wellington's highest temperature hitting 19°C, eliminating uncertainty. May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of 18°C and other lower options plummeted to near 0, because as 19°C became the new high, the possibility of 18°C being the highest temperature was completely eliminated. May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of 18°C surged from 27c to 64c as weather forecast data became more certain that the highest temperature would fall in the 18°C range approaching the settlement date. May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of 17°C experienced drastic volatility, rising from 22.5c to a peak of 33.5c before plummeting to 10.5c, due to updated weather forecasts eliminating the likelihood of 17°C as time progressed. May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of 19°C rose from 26.5c to a high of 32.5c before plunging to 13.5c, also driven by declining probabilities following meteorological updates near settlement at the time.