Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes shares of '1280-1319', '1320-1359', and '1360-1399' simultaneously. Plan Description: The sum of the Yes prices for all major plausible options (19.4 + 65.4 + 2.5) is approximately 87.3c...

With only about 10.5 hours left in March, the price for '1320-1359' is 65.4c, while '1280-1319' has ...

While the rules explicitly name Polymarket's xtracker as the source, the distinction between 'main feed replies' and standard replies can be fuzzy in technical scraping. Additionally, Musk's posting habits are volatile, and the deleted post window (~5 mins to be captured) introduces technical uncertainty. Relying on X as a secondary source if the tracker fails could lead to disputes over counting methodology, particularly regarding replies.

This is a classic 'Novelty' market. Predicting the specific monthly tweet count of an individual is not within the realm of mainstream financial or political analysis. It relies entirely on personal behavioral unpredictability, and while common on Polymarket, it is fringe for the general public.

Mar 31, 2026, the price of '1320-1359' pulled back from 84.6c to 65.4c, while '1280-1319' rebounded from 10.0c to 19.4c, as Musk's tweeting pace slowed down during the day, reviving the possibility of the total staying in the lower bracket. Mar 31, 2026, the price of '1320-1359' previously surged from 52.75c to 84.6c, as the approaching deadline essentially locked the expected total tweet count into this range at the time. Mar 31, 2026, the price of '1280-1319' initially rose from 36.65c to 59.7c before plummeting to 10.0c, as the continuous increase in tweet count temporarily shattered the likelihood of the total staying in this lower range. Mar 30, 2026 - Mar 31, 2026, the price of '1320-1359' surged from 29.75c to 75.2c, because as the deadline approached, the probability of the total tweets landing in this range became highly certain. Mar 28, 2026 - Mar 31, 2026, the price of '1360-1399' plummeted from 25.2c to 2.5c, because the remaining time became insufficient to support the high daily tweet volume required to reach this level. Mar 28, 2026 - Mar 31, 2026, the price of '1400+' plummeted from 13.35c to 0.15c, as reaching this extreme high became mathematically impossible with only 1 day left. Mar 28, 2026 - Mar 30, 2026, the price of '1240-1279' briefly spiked to 27.6c on Mar 29 before falling back to 0.3c, reflecting short-term market panic over tweet stagnation followed by sentiment recovery.

Current weather forecasts for London City Airport suggest the highest temperature on April 4 will li...

From March 30 to March 31, 2026, the price of '17°C or higher' fluctuated rapidly from 13c to 28c before settling back at 17.5c, driven by quick updates and subsequent revisions in short-to-medium-term weather forecast models regarding the potential for unusually warm weekend temperatures. From March 29 to March 30, 2026, multiple low-temperature options such as '7°C or below', '10°C', and '11°C' experienced severe drops of over 10c. As the forecasting window shortened, the likelihood of a cold air intrusion was largely ruled out, leading to rapid capital outflows from these extreme options.

Based on the latest prediction market pricing and weather forecast trends, the high temperature for ...

High risk of misinterpretation. The title broadly mentions 'Seoul', but the settlement rules specifically designate the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI)'. Because Incheon is coastal, its temperatures often differ significantly from central Seoul. Traders relying on general Seoul forecasts are highly likely to be misled. Additionally, the rules mandate the use of Wunderground data rounded to whole degrees Celsius, requiring strict tracking of this specific source.

Between March 29 and March 30, 2026, the price of 11°C surged from 16c to 25c, as some short-term meteorological models predicted slightly lower highs than previously expected. Between March 29 and March 30, 2026, the price of 12°C surged from 17c to 28.5c due to forecasts further confirming temperatures in this range. Between March 29 and March 30, 2026, the price of 13°C surged from 13c to 28.5c due to updated weather models centering the expected high around 13 degrees. Between March 29 and March 30, 2026, the price for '16°C or higher' plummeted from 25.5c to 7c (followed by wild fluctuations) as meteorological data significantly reduced the probability of unseasonable warmth.

Recent multi-model weather forecasts for LaGuardia Airport on April 4 show significant divergence, w...

March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of '58°F or higher' surged from 18c to 50.5c as certain forecast models and market capital shifted towards the possibility of a warm air surge, causing extreme high-temperature options to be heavily bought. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, several mid-range options from 46-47°F to 56-57°F experienced wild swings, dropping from around 17c to 8c and rebounding back to 17c. This reflects the deep uncertainty in early spring weather models (GFS and ECMWF) regarding the clash of polar and southerly air masses.

There is a significant divergence. Mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., Weather.com, AccuWeather) predict a high between 50°F and 56°F for April 4. However, the Yes price for '58°F or higher' on Polymarket is trading at 50.5c, implying a >50% probability. This heavily contradicts the meteorological consensus leaning towards mild or chilly spring rain, likely driven by short-term speculative trading or an overreaction to outlier climate models.

Based on the latest market data, as the April 1 settlement date approaches, the 580-585k and 575-580...

While the rule explicitly designates the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index as the source, there is a calculation risk: the market does not use the raw index directly but requires multiplying it (price per sq ft) by 1,000 sq ft. If Parcl changes the unit or definition of its data, or if there is a delay, disputes may arise. Additionally, the common definition of 'Median Home Value' might differ from this derived definition of 'Parcl Index * 1000'.

March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of '575 - 580k' surged from 29.65c to a high of 52.75c before falling back, as market expectations for the latest Parcl data fluctuated wildly near settlement. March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of '585 - 590k' recovered from 1.55c to 12.05c, as some capital speculated at extremely low prices, believing there was still a marginal chance for this bracket. March 25, 2026 - March 28, 2026, the price of '585 - 590k' plummeted from ~38c to 1.55c. The reason is that as the settlement date nears, the market confirmed the actual index is highly unlikely to reach this higher bracket, causing rapid capital withdrawal. March 25, 2026 - March 28, 2026, the price of '575 - 580k' surged from ~10c to 37.35c. The reason is that recent Parcl data showed downward pressure on the housing index, shifting the market consensus to lower brackets. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of '575 - 580k' surged from 6.8c to a high of 25.65c. The reason is that the latest Parcl data showed an unexpectedly strong downward trend in the housing index, causing the market consensus to rapidly shift to lower brackets. March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '590 - 595k' dropped from 32.5c to 16c. The reason is that as the settlement date approaches, recent Parcl index data indicates a slow downward drift, shifting market expectations from the 590k+ bracket to lower ranges. March 15, 2026 - March 16, 2026, prices across all brackets underwent a massive correction (e.g., '590 - 595k' plummeted from 66.5c to 34c). The reason is that the March 15 data indicated an extremely irrational pricing state where the sum of Yes prices exceeded 300%, after which the market normalized to a coherent probability distribution.