The market relies strictly on a custom Polymarket Tracker. While standard replies are excluded, rules state they count if the tracker records them on the main feed. Also, deleted posts count if they survive long enough (~5 mins) to be scraped. This heavy reliance on a third-party tool's technical quirks can lead to discrepancies between the resolution source and what users manually count on X.

This is a classic novelty/trivia market driven by attention economy. Outside of prediction market degens, no one naturally ponders or attempts to forecast the exact number of tweets a specific politician will make in a random upcoming week, making the subject highly niche and unusual.

May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026: The price of the '120-139' option surged from 39c to 60c, while '100-119' fluctuated wildly (dropping to 20.5c) and '140-159' retreated to 10c. This occurred because, as the resolution date approaches, the accumulated post count makes it highly likely to lock in the 120-139 bracket, accelerating the convergence of market expectations. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026: The '100-119' option plummeted from 43c to 6c, while '140-159' surged from 8.5c to 29c, and '180-199' jumped from 2c to 18.45c. This reflects a major spike in Ted Cruz's posting frequency over the last 24 hours, causing the market to rapidly revise its projections upward. May 8, 2026 - May 11, 2026: Multiple options experienced >10c volatility. '80-99' dropped from 35c to 5c, '140-159' fell from roughly 40c to 12c, and '160-179' plummeted from 39c to 4c before bouncing back to 13c. Meanwhile, '120-139' and '100-119' peaked above 40c before settling near 26c. This indicates that as more real-time posting data is tracked over the first weekend, the market constantly recalibrates Ted Cruz's daily pace, stabilizing expectations around the 100-139 range while keeping an eye on higher-frequency brackets. May 5, 2026 - May 8, 2026: Multiple options experienced >10c shifts. The '40-59' bucket plummeted from 25c to 0.3c, while '140-159' and '160-179' surged from roughly 25c to ~39c. This occurred because the official counting period started on May 8, prompting traders to rapidly reallocate from low-count to high-count brackets based on recent activity.

The market rules contain notable nuances: it counts main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts, but excludes normal replies. However, replies on the main feed are counted by the tracker. Furthermore, deleted posts are counted if they remain available long enough to be captured (~5 minutes). X itself acts as a secondary source if the tracker fails. These specific definitions and potential tracker discrepancies present a moderate risk.

While betting on Elon Musk's actions is somewhat common in prediction markets, predicting the exact number of tweets he makes within a specific one-week timeframe is highly trivial and novel. Few people would naturally ponder this exact number.

May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the 100-119 bracket climbed from 27.45c to 48.8c, the 120-139 bracket bounced back from 15.7c to 38c, while the 80-99 bracket plummeted from a peak of 35.05c to 9.8c. The reason is that Musk's posting speed accelerated significantly, prompting the market to correct its expectation of an extremely low final count. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the market experienced sharp volatility followed by a correction due to changing tweet pacing: the 120-139 bracket bounced back after crashing to 15.7c, the 140-159 bracket dropped from 16.5c to 5.5c, while the 80-99 bracket surged to 27.9c. The reason is that Musk's posting speed fluctuated after a brief slump, prompting the market to constantly correct final count expectations. May 9, 2026 - May 11, 2026, the 100-119 bracket skyrocketed from ~4.9c to 29.4c, and the 80-99 bracket surged from 1.15c to 9c, while the 140-159 bracket dropped from 29.5c to 16.5c. This was caused by real-time tracker data indicating an extremely sluggish posting rate from Musk, prompting the market to heavily downgrade the expected final tweet count. May 8, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the 120-139 bracket soared from ~7.45c to 19.95c, the 100-119 bracket rose from 3.15c to 5.75c, and the 140-159 bracket climbed from 17.5c to 31.5c. This is due to real-time tracking data confirming a lower tweet pace for Musk, leading the market to upgrade the probability of the lower buckets. May 6, 2026 - May 9, 2026, the price of the 140-159 bracket surged consistently to 29.5c, and the 160-179 bracket remained high above 20c. The reason is that real-time tracking data indicated Musk's posting frequency is at a moderate pace.

Resolution primarily relies on a third-party tracker (xtracker) and involves technical nuances like whether 'replies appear on the main feed' and if deleted posts survive for more than ~5 minutes. These technical definitions may deviate from intuitive manual counting on Truth Social, creating a moderate rule trap.

Predicting the exact number of posts a politician makes in a specific week is a classic niche novelty topic. The general public usually doesn't care about such hyper-granular data, although it is relatively common among political prediction market participants.

May 13, 2026 - May 13, 2026, as Trump's posting frequency appeared to slow down slightly, the '200+' option retreated from a high of 74.4c to around 54.75c, reflecting decreased certainty that the total will reach 200+. May 11, 2026 - May 13, 2026, driven by an explosive increase in Trump's posting volume and the shortening of remaining time, the '200+' option skyrocketed from around 6.9c to a high of 74.4c (now stable around 68c), and '180-199' surged from 6.5c to 35c before settling near 26c. Simultaneously, '140-159' plummeted from 29.5c to 0.05c (near zero), and '160-179' dropped from 18c to 1.85c. This occurred because real-time tracking data far exceeded earlier market expectations, significantly reducing uncertainty as the resolution approaches. Between May 10 and May 11, 2026, due to a significant acceleration in Trump's posting speed, market expectations for the total post count shifted sharply higher. The '140-159' option rose from 23.5c to 34c, and '160-179' rebounded from 16.5c to 26c; meanwhile, the '100-119' option dropped sharply from 16.5c to 4.5c (before rebounding to 10c), indicating that lower total expectations were quickly adjusted. Between May 9 and May 10, 2026, as Trump's posting frequency picked up, market expectations were revised upwards. The '140-159' option rebounded from 11c to 23.5c, and '160-179' recovered from 7c to 17c. Meanwhile, '100-119' peaked at 26.5c on May 9 before retreating to 17.5c, showing a recalibration of the 7-day total based on the latest posting speed. Between May 8 and May 9, 2026, as Trump's posting frequency on the first day of the tracking period was significantly lower than his recent norm, multiple high-frequency options (140-159, 160-179, 200+) plummeted to below 10c after briefly spiking to around 30c on May 8. Simultaneously, mid-to-low frequency options surged, with '60-79' jumping from ~2c to 15c, showing a sharp downward revision of total expected posts based on real-time data. Between May 7 and May 8, 2026, the '80-99' option crashed from 28.5c to 7.5c, while the '120-139' option spiked from 17c to 30c before falling back to 20.5c, driven by expectation adjustments as the start date approached and exacerbated by low liquidity. Between May 5 and May 6, 2026, several low-frequency options (e.g., <20, 20-39, 40-59, 60-79) plummeted from around 25c. This occurred because early market illiquidity, which uniformly priced all options, was corrected as traders priced in Trump's true, highly active posting habits.

The rules explicitly exclude standard replies but include those on the main feed, and count deleted posts if captured by the tracker. Resolution heavily relies on Polymarket's custom tracker (xtracker), meaning API latency, downtime, or discrepancies with X's actual display could easily trigger disputes.

Predicting the exact tweet count of a specific crypto figure during a specific week is highly niche and random. It represents a classic novelty market that the general public would never organically think about.

May 11, 2026 - May 13, 2026: The price of the '<20' option surged from 56.5c to 98.35c, while the '20-39' option plummeted from 30c to 1.65c. This is because, as the settlement date is imminent, CZ's posting volume remains extremely low, and the market is almost certain the total will be under 20. May 9, 2026 - May 11, 2026: The price of the '<20' option continued to surge from 35c to 53.5c, while the '20-39' option plummeted from 51c to 18c. This was because, with the observation period more than halfway over, CZ's actual post count remained extremely low, making the market highly confident that the total will fall below 20. May 8, 2026 - May 9, 2026: The price of the '20-39' option plummeted from 90c to 50.5c, while the '<20' option surged from 5.5c to 37.5c. This was due to the accumulation of observation period data showing CZ's actual posting frequency was lower than the market's initial high expectations, leading to a massive downward revision of his estimated total posts. May 5, 2026 - May 8, 2026: The price of the '20-39' option surged from 25.5c to a peak of 77.5c before settling at 60.5c. Concurrently, the '<20' option fluctuated, rising to 33.5c before dropping to 22c. This was driven by the opening of the observation window, causing the market to quickly adjust expectations based on early posting frequency.

The rules explicitly rely on a designated tracker (xtracker) and its capture mechanics. There are specific technical nuances regarding replies and deleted posts. If the tracker experiences downtime, delays, or fails to capture briefly live posts, the resolution could conflict with the data users see directly on X.

Predicting the exact number of social media posts by a head of state in a specific week is a highly granular and niche micro-behavior prediction. Without this prediction market, ordinary people would almost never track or calculate such trivial data.

May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the price of the 80-99 option skyrocketed from 12c to 68c, while the 60-79 option plummeted from 65c to 17c, and the 40-59 option crashed from 28c to near 0c. This was caused by the actual posting count clearly surpassing the lower bounds as the deadline approached, firmly pointing to the 80-99 bracket, forcing the market to rapidly reprice the trend. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of the 40-59 option dropped from 15c to 5c, and the 80-99 option dropped from 29.5c to 18c. This was caused by the clearer posting pace, allowing the market to rule out lower/higher bounds and concentrate on the 60-79 range. May 9, 2026 - May 11, 2026, the price of the 80-99 option surged from 8.5c to 51c before falling back to 29c, while the 60-79 option also fluctuated widely between 46.5c and 58c. This was caused by the correction of early extreme predictions as the resolution period progressed, with market participants intensively adjusting positions and re-evaluating expectations based on the actual daily posting frequency. May 8, 2026 - May 9, 2026, the Yes prices of multiple options (e.g., 140-159, 80-99, 20-39) experienced extreme volatility. For example, 140-159 surged from under 2c to 29.9c before dropping back to 2c; 100-119 plummeted from 39.5c to 6.5c. This was caused by persistent poor liquidity, where single large irrational orders or short-term changes in posting frequency drastically reallocated market probabilities. May 8, 2026, the Yes prices of multiple options (such as 140-159, 160-179, 120-139) surged from under 10c to over 24c within a few hours, and the 60-79 option rose from 32.5c to 42c. This was caused by extremely low market liquidity combined with irrational buying or potential market manipulation, severely skewing the total implied probability.