April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, Mike Thurmond's price surged from 3.8c to 19.6c, while Keisha Lance Bottoms' price plunged from 80c to 65.5c. The reason is Thurmond gaining rapid late-stage momentum in the final weeks, likely benefiting from key late endorsements or a significant shift in polling. April 13, 2026 - April 15, 2026, Jason Esteves' price surged from 21c to 33.5c, while Keisha Lance Bottoms' price plunged from 75.5c to 61.5c. The reason is a rapid tightening of the race in the final month before the primary, likely due to Esteves securing key endorsements or internal polls showing a major breakout. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, Jason Esteves' price surged from 6.5c to 20c, likely driven by market anticipation of a major endorsement or leaked internal polling showing a significant breakout. March 30, 2026 - April 1, 2026, Keisha Lance Bottoms' price plunged from 83.5c to 72.5c, as the rising momentum of Esteves siphoned off expected vote shares, breaking the previously overwhelming consensus of her inevitable victory. March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Geoff Duncan's price surged from 6c to 13.5c. The reason was a capital rotation as the market searched for a viable alternative to KLB, though the move remained under the 10c volatility threshold. March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Jason Esteves' price cracked, dropping from 19.5c to 14c. The reason was the market finally beginning to correct his high valuation which had long been disconnected from his single-digit polling numbers.

There are moderate traps: the rules strictly exclude unresolved incidents and explicitly require 'ChatGPT' to be listed as an affected component (excluding API-only or Sora-only outages). Additionally, retroactive upgrades to incident severity count if published within the timeframe. This requires bettors to meticulously parse OpenAI's status page components and final classifications.

Predicting the exact number of days a specific web service will experience outages in a future month is highly specific and relatively niche. It falls outside mainstream public interest but is a typical novelty event in prediction markets.

May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of the 64-65°F option surged from 13.5c to 38.5c and then pulled back to 24.5c. This was caused by minor adjustments in short-term weather forecast models, causing market expectations to swing between 62°F and 65°F. May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of the 60-61°F option dropped from 21.5c to 7.5c before recovering to 16.5c, reflecting similar expectation adjustments due to forecasting noise as the expiry approaches. May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the 66-67°F option also saw significant volatility, fluctuating from 7.5c up to 18.65c and back to 12.65c.

The title broadly refers to 'NYC', but the rules strictly limit the resolution to the LaGuardia Airport Station. Temperatures often vary across different NYC stations (e.g., Central Park or JFK), creating a trap for traders relying on alternative data sources. Furthermore, the rules explicitly exclude any post-finalization data revisions.

May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026: The price of '62-63°F' surged from 21.5c to 44.5c, and '64-65°F' rose from 21c to 38c, as approaching weather forecasts stabilized the expected high temperature within the 62-64°F range. May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026: The price of '60-61°F' initially spiked from 6.5c to 31c before falling back to 7.5c, while '66-67°F' plummeted from 26.5c to 12.5c. This occurred because the narrowing temperature forecast significantly reduced the probabilities of outcomes deviating from the 62-64°F window.