Looking at historical data, how often has the highest temperature in Hong Kong fallen into the "29°C or higher" range on April 3 over the past 10 years?

AI-powered analysis for: Looking at historical data, how often has the highest temperature in Hong Kong fallen into the "29°C or higher" range on April 3 over the past 10 years?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Explain simply (ELI5): How exactly will the winning temperature range be determined using the Hong Kong Observatory's "Absolute Daily Max" daily extract data?

AI-powered analysis for: Explain simply (ELI5): How exactly will the winning temperature range be determined using the Hong Kong Observatory's "Absolute Daily Max" daily extract data?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How quickly does the Hong Kong Observatory update its "Daily Extract" for the absolute daily maximum temperature, and is there any risk of delay in finalizing the data?

AI-powered analysis for: How quickly does the Hong Kong Observatory update its "Daily Extract" for the absolute daily maximum temperature, and is there any risk of delay in finalizing the data?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

The market ends on April 3 at 12:00 PM UTC; when exactly does the Hong Kong Observatory finalize the Daily Extract for April 3 locally to trigger resolution?

AI-powered analysis for: The market ends on April 3 at 12:00 PM UTC; when exactly does the Hong Kong Observatory finalize the Daily Extract for April 3 locally to trigger resolution?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are the current critical weather variables (e.g., incoming cold fronts, rain probability, or heatwaves) that will directly affect Hong Kong's highest temperature on April 3?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the current critical weather variables (e.g., incoming cold fronts, rain probability, or heatwaves) that will directly affect Hong Kong's highest temperature on April 3?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are the top 3 meteorological arguments against the bullish sentiment that the temperature will spike to the "28°C" or higher range on April 3 in Hong Kong?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the top 3 meteorological arguments against the bullish sentiment that the temperature will spike to the "28°C" or higher range on April 3 in Hong Kong?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How can the current odds for the "24°C" option be translated into an intuitive probability metaphor, like the chance of flipping a coin heads twice in a row?

AI-powered analysis for: How can the current odds for the "24°C" option be translated into an intuitive probability metaphor, like the chance of flipping a coin heads twice in a row?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What short-term weather forecast updates or changes in meteorological satellite data could act as catalysts to drastically shift the odds across temperature ranges in the next 48 hours?

AI-powered analysis for: What short-term weather forecast updates or changes in meteorological satellite data could act as catalysts to drastically shift the odds across temperature ranges in the next 48 hours?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

As we get closer to April 3 with stable weather forecasts, do the middle temperature ranges (e.g., 23°C-25°C) benefit more from time decay (Theta) than the extreme ranges?

AI-powered analysis for: As we get closer to April 3 with stable weather forecasts, do the middle temperature ranges (e.g., 23°C-25°C) benefit more from time decay (Theta) than the extreme ranges?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How do the current Hong Kong weather patterns (barometric pressure, humidity) approaching April 3 compare to historical weather fractals for similar days?

AI-powered analysis for: How do the current Hong Kong weather patterns (barometric pressure, humidity) approaching April 3 compare to historical weather fractals for similar days?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Is forecasting Hong Kong's highest temperature for April 3 mostly a highly predictable science, or is it heavily subject to random microclimate shifts like intra-day cloud cover?

AI-powered analysis for: Is forecasting Hong Kong's highest temperature for April 3 mostly a highly predictable science, or is it heavily subject to random microclimate shifts like intra-day cloud cover?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are the core disagreements in the Polymarket community regarding whether the temperature will stay at "22°C" and below, or reach "26°C" and above?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the core disagreements in the Polymarket community regarding whether the temperature will stay at "22°C" and below, or reach "26°C" and above?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the current extreme odds for the tail options (like 19°C or below, or 29°C or higher), are traders "picking up pennies" or "buying lottery tickets"?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the current extreme odds for the tail options (like 19°C or below, or 29°C or higher), are traders "picking up pennies" or "buying lottery tickets"?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Considering the extremely low total volume of ~$4.55, what is the slippage risk for executing a $100 trade on the "25°C" temperature option?

AI-powered analysis for: Considering the extremely low total volume of ~$4.55, what is the slippage risk for executing a $100 trade on the "25°C" temperature option?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Assuming a $50 bet on the temperature range with the highest probability, what is the realistic net ROI after factoring in Polymarket's low liquidity slippage and gas fees?

AI-powered analysis for: Assuming a $50 bet on the temperature range with the highest probability, what is the realistic net ROI after factoring in Polymarket's low liquidity slippage and gas fees?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What specific downward revision in the Hong Kong Observatory's 9-day weather forecast should serve as an immediate stop-loss red line for holding the "27°C" option?

AI-powered analysis for: What specific downward revision in the Hong Kong Observatory's 9-day weather forecast should serve as an immediate stop-loss red line for holding the "27°C" option?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the confidence level of an authoritative meteorological model forecasting "23°C", what percentage of a portfolio should be allocated to that option using the Kelly criterion?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the confidence level of an authoritative meteorological model forecasting "23°C", what percentage of a portfolio should be allocated to that option using the Kelly criterion?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How should a trader place "stink bids" on underdog options like "20°C" to capitalize on panic selling caused by sudden cold front forecasts?

AI-powered analysis for: How should a trader place "stink bids" on underdog options like "20°C" to capitalize on panic selling caused by sudden cold front forecasts?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are three high-quality meteorological Twitter accounts or local Hong Kong weather forecasting platforms that provide a forward-looking edge over standard weather apps?

AI-powered analysis for: What are three high-quality meteorological Twitter accounts or local Hong Kong weather forecasting platforms that provide a forward-looking edge over standard weather apps?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the April 3 resolution and the current low liquidity environment, is the opportunity cost of locking up capital in these temperature options higher than risk-free DeFi yields?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the April 3 resolution and the current low liquidity environment, is the opportunity cost of locking up capital in these temperature options higher than risk-free DeFi yields?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 3?

Weather|$13.5k Vol|

1 days 1 hrs

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 3? - AI Found +10¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 8 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+10¢

25°C(No)

+7¢

28°C(Yes)

+4.5¢

26°C(No)

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 3? AI analysis: • +10¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

As the date approaches, the accuracy of weather forecast models significantly improves. Market price...

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

25°C

YesNo

20¢

80¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+10¢

28°C

YesNo

18¢

82¢

25¢

75¢

+7¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

Predicting the daily maximum temperature of a specific city is a somewhat niche topic in prediction markets. While it resembles weather derivatives in traditional finance, it remains relatively novel and niche for the general public.

Movers

From March 30, 2026 to March 31, 2026, the price of '26°C' fell sharply from a high of 54.5c to 19.5c, as updated forecasts shifted the likely peak temperature slightly higher towards 27°C and above. From March 30, 2026 to March 31, 2026, the price of '27°C' initially dropped from 41c to 15c, then strongly rebounded to 34.5c on the 31st, indicating that forecast models wavered between 26°C and 27°C over these two days. From March 29, 2026 to March 30, 2026, the price of '19°C or below' plummeted from 25c to 12.45c and then rebounded to 25.15c, likely due to market sentiment fluctuations caused by short-term weather forecast updates. From March 29, 2026 to March 30, 2026, the price of '20°C' surged from 1.2c to 25.05c. The reason might be that forecast models indicated a rare probability of a temperature drop, attracting defensive funds. From March 29, 2026 to March 30, 2026, the price of '25°C' fell from 35c to 18.5c (and later down to 10.5c), indicating that the market believes the probability of hitting this relatively lower temperature has continually decreased.