Based on the latest trading data and implied probabilities, the high-temperature forecast for San Fr...

March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of '72°F or higher' dropped from 56.5c to 32.5c, as updated meteorological models cooled down expectations for extreme highs as the date approaches. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of '70-71°F' increased from 15.5c to 28.5c, as the forecast temperature median slightly shifted downward, making this range a highly probable outcome. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the Yes price of '72°F or higher' surged from 37.5c to 56.5c, as the latest meteorological models further confirmed a significant warming trend for early April. March 29, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the Yes price of '54-55°F' plummeted from 25.5c to 0.65c, as the weather forecast became clearer closer to the date, ruling out extreme low temperatures. March 29, 2026 - March 29, 2026, multiple colder options including '56-57°F' dropped by more than 10c, driven by meteorological models converging on warmer weather.

Today is April 1, 2026, and the market resolves on April 3. Daily high temperatures in Singapore in ...

Mar 29, 2026 - Apr 1, 2026, the Yes price for 31°C dropped from 34.5c to 13.5c, as weather forecasts closer to the target date increasingly showed the high temperature would likely exceed 31°C. Mar 29, 2026 - Mar 31, 2026, the Yes price for 33°C rose from 26.5c to 45c, as weather forecasts became more concrete with the approaching date, shifting expectations to higher temperatures. Mar 29, 2026 - Mar 29, 2026, the Yes price of 27°C plummeted from 43c to 24.5c, and 26°C surged from 6c to 22.5c, likely due to poor liquidity causing small trades to easily sweep the order book and create abnormal price swings.

With less than 2 days until the April 3 resolution, weather forecasting models have highly converged...

2026-03-31 to 2026-04-01, the price of '20°C' surged from 14c to 24c, as the latest short-term weather forecast models further converged, locking the peak high temperature within the 20-22°C range. 2026-03-30 to 2026-03-31, the price of '24°C' plummeted from 29c to 5.8c. This was due to meteorological radars largely ruling out the possibility of anomalously high temperatures as the date approached. 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-31, the price of '23°C' surged from 13c to 28c before settling at 22c, as weather forecasting models gained significant confidence in this temperature range as the date approached. 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-31, the price of '19°C' plummeted from 25c to 7c, driven by weakened expectations of a cold front, drastically reducing the likelihood of lower temperatures. 2026-03-29 21:00 to 22:05, the price of '26°C or higher' plummeted from 26c to 13c. This was driven by the latest weather model updates effectively ruling out extreme heat scenarios. 2026-03-29 19:55 to 21:00, the price of '16°C or below' surged from 13.5c to 23c. The spike was caused by emerging risks in certain ensemble models showing potential cold air advection, sparking market concerns of a significant temperature drop.

Based on the latest prices and forecasts, the market is heavily concentrated in the higher temperatu...

March 31 - April 1, 2026, the price of '80°F or higher' plummeted from 59c to around 21c. This is likely due to updated weather forecasts downgrading the probability of extreme heat as the date approaches. March 30 - March 31, 2026, the price of '80°F or higher' climbed from around 24c to 37.5c. This is likely due to updated weather forecasts confirming a warming trend for April 4 as the date approaches. Between 19:50 and 20:55 on March 29, 2026, the 'Yes' prices for multiple mid-range temperature options (e.g., 64-65°F, 66-67°F, 68-69°F, 70-71°F, 72-73°F) plummeted from around 26c to approx 17c. This was likely due to market makers adjusting heavily over-priced order books, partially reducing the absurdly high aggregate implied probability.