Alabama's 4th Congressional District (AL-04) is one of the most solidly Republican districts in the ...

As of early April 2026, the NCAA Tournament is nearing its conclusion with just days until market se...

Based on the latest market trading prices and weather model forecasts, the highest temperature at Ta...

The title mentions 'Taipei', but the rules explicitly state resolution is based on data from 'Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport'. Taoyuan is geographically distinct from downtown Taipei and has a different microclimate. Furthermore, the market relies on a specific NOAA data link and rounding to whole degrees. Bettors relying on standard weather apps for Taipei are highly likely to be misled.

March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the Yes price for '23°C or below' plummeted from 25.5c to 12c, and '26°C' dropped from 29.5c to 18c. This was driven by short-term weather model revisions showing a weaker cold front, shifting overall expectations to a warmer outcome. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the Yes price for '33°C or higher' plummeted from 40c to 2.5c, as updated forecasts eliminated the possibility of an anomalous extreme heatwave for the date. March 29, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the Yes prices for 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C plummeted from 25.5c to 14.5c, 13c, and 11.5c respectively. This was driven by converging short-term weather forecasts indicating much cooler temperatures for April 3, causing the market to sharply discount the high-temperature options.

According to the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) and major meteorological s...

Predicting the precise daily high temperature for a specific city is a relatively niche quantitative event. The general public usually does not ponder or trade exact daily temperature ranges, though it is a standard meteorological product on specialized prediction market platforms.

Between March 29 and April 1, 2026, the prices for multiple extreme temperature options including '45°F or below', '48-49°F', '50-51°F', '62-63°F', and '64°F or higher' crashed from around 25c to under 1c. This occurred because short-term weather forecast models gained high certainty just days before resolution, effectively ruling out extreme warm or cold anomalies. Between March 29 and March 31, 2026, the price of '52-53°F' dropped from 25.5c to 10.5c as weather forecasts gradually revised the expected high temperature upwards, decreasing the likelihood of this cooler range.

Today is April 1, 2026, and the market resolves on April 3. Daily high temperatures in Singapore in ...

Mar 29, 2026 - Apr 1, 2026, the Yes price for 31°C dropped from 34.5c to 13.5c, as weather forecasts closer to the target date increasingly showed the high temperature would likely exceed 31°C. Mar 29, 2026 - Mar 31, 2026, the Yes price for 33°C rose from 26.5c to 45c, as weather forecasts became more concrete with the approaching date, shifting expectations to higher temperatures. Mar 29, 2026 - Mar 29, 2026, the Yes price of 27°C plummeted from 43c to 24.5c, and 26°C surged from 6c to 22.5c, likely due to poor liquidity causing small trades to easily sweep the order book and create abnormal price swings.