The market currently shows a significant premium (total price ~116 cents), indicating a speculative ...

March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Troy Jackson's price surged from 30c to 44.5c (+14.5c), driven by probable confirmation of key union endorsements or an internal momentum shift, flipping him past Nirav Shah as the market favorite. February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, Troy Jackson's price surged from 14c to 21.5c due to early market speculation regarding union support. February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, Nirav Shah's price dropped from 40c to 35c due to profit-taking and concerns over his pandemic-era policies.

Significant divergence exists. According to context, Nirav Shah leads polling with 35% support versus Troy Jackson's 9%. However, the prediction market now prices Jackson as the clear favorite at 44.5c (44.5% implied probability) compared to Shah's 27c. This inversion suggests market participants are completely disregarding available public polling data in favor of betting on undisclosed political momentum or insider information.

As of late March 2026, the Republican primary landscape for NE-02 is fully settled. The filing deadl...

TX-32 underwent a fundamental redistricting in 2025, transforming from a Democratic lean (D+22) to a...

From March 23, 2026, to March 24, 2026, the Democratic Party's price surged from 20c to 45.5c, and the Republican Party's price rose from 56c to 70c. This was likely caused by irrational capital inflow under extremely low liquidity or misinterpretation of primary dynamics, pushing the sum of 'Yes' prices well over 100c. From March 11, 2026, to March 12, 2026, the Republican Party's price dropped from 86.5c to 74.5c. This move appears to be an irrational pullback or profit-taking amidst extremely low liquidity (only $13k). Despite unchanged fundamentals (R+17 safe seat) and the March 3 primary merely setting up an internal GOP runoff (which does not affect the party's general election dominance), the market reaction is likely noise. From February 9, 2026, to February 11, 2026, the Republican Party's price fluctuated narrowly between 74.5c and 75.5c, as low liquidity prevented the market from efficiently pricing in the massive fundamental shift caused by redistricting.

Significant divergence exists. All mainstream election forecasters (such as the Cook Political Report) consider TX-32 a 'Solid Republican' seat due to the recent redistricting. However, the prediction market currently gives the Republican Party only about a 70% chance of winning, while pricing the Democratic Party at an absurd 45.5%. This completely deviates from the fundamental reality of the district, likely due to a lack of liquidity and traders' ignorance of the district boundary changes.

CO-07 is rated as a 'Solid Democratic' district with a Cook PVI of D+8. Incumbent Democrat Brittany ...

Based on the latest market price trends and trading data, with nearly a month to expiration, the pri...

There is a significant potential rule conflict. The rule text explicitly states resolution to 'Yes' if the price is 'equal to or above' the listed price, which fits the '↑' (up) options. However, the options list includes '↓' (down) options, which typically imply 'equal to or below'. If the provided rule text applies globally, the logic for the '↓' options is flawed. Additionally, the data source may default to GBP, requiring a manual toggle to USD.

This market involves forecasting the price index of an alternative asset (luxury watches). While Audemars Piguet is a well-known brand, trading on an index constructed from its secondary market prices represents a relatively niche financial segment (Alternative Assets).

March 28, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '↑ $41,750' plummeted from 57c to 35c, '↑ $41,500' plummeted from 65c to 37c, '↓ $41,000' dropped from 52.5c to 36.5c, and '↓ $40,750' dropped from 40c to 29.5c. The reason is that the market's expectation for the volatility of the AP watch price index changed over time, lowering the probability of hitting higher or lower targets. March 14, 2026 - March 17, 2026, prices for all options remained flat at 50 cents with no significant movement. This indicates an inactive or initialized market that has not yet reacted to the latest Subdial index data.