[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket event page to analyze the distribution of the $17,034 volume, specifically the bid/ask depth for top contenders like Shenna Bellows and Nirav Shah. Combine this with the latest Maine political dynamics to assess if current odds accurately reflect their winning probabilities.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket event page to analyze the distribution of the $17,034 volume, specifically the bid/ask depth for top contenders like Shenna Bellows and Nirav Shah. Combine this with the latest Maine political dynamics to assess if current odds accurately reflect their winning probabilities.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Breaking] Core News Sourcing: Search Google News and Twitter to confirm if Shenna Bellows (current SOS), Troy Jackson (Senate President), or Nirav Shah have officially declared their candidacy. Have any candidates hinted at running for the Senate or other positions instead?

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Breaking] Core News Sourcing: Search Google News and Twitter to confirm if Shenna Bellows (current SOS), Troy Jackson (Senate President), or Nirav Shah have officially declared their candidacy. Have any candidates hinted at running for the Senate or other positions instead?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain how Maine's 'Ranked Choice Voting' (RCV) system affects this market's resolution. If no one wins >50% in the first round, does Polymarket wait for the final RCV tabulation or resolve based on the first-round leader?

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain how Maine's 'Ranked Choice Voting' (RCV) system affects this market's resolution. If no one wins >50% in the first round, does Polymarket wait for the final RCV tabulation or resolve based on the first-round leader?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest 2026 Democratic Primary polls from the 'Bangor Daily News', 'Portland Press Herald', or UNH Survey Center. Is there a significant discrepancy between Polymarket odds and polling support rates?

AI-powered analysis for: [Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest 2026 Democratic Primary polls from the 'Bangor Daily News', 'Portland Press Herald', or UNH Survey Center. Is there a significant discrepancy between Polymarket odds and polling support rates?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Key Players Mining: Search for endorsement leanings from current Governor Janet Mills and major unions like the Maine AFL-CIO. Who is the favored successor of the 'establishment'?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Key Players Mining: Search for endorsement leanings from current Governor Janet Mills and major unions like the Maine AFL-CIO. Who is the favored successor of the 'establishment'?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Niche Market] Legal/Reality Barriers: Given Shenna Bellows is the current Secretary of State (overseeing elections), search Maine law to see if she must resign to run for Governor, and if this constitutes a practical barrier to her candidacy.

AI-powered analysis for: [Niche Market] Legal/Reality Barriers: Given Shenna Bellows is the current Secretary of State (overseeing elections), search Maine law to see if she must resign to run for Governor, and if this constitutes a practical barrier to her candidacy.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Rules] Key Timeline Check: Search the Maine Ethics Commission's official schedule to confirm the Filing Deadline for the 2026 primary. Is there a risk of high volatility due to a heavyweight surprise entry before this date?

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Rules] Key Timeline Check: Search the Maine Ethics Commission's official schedule to confirm the Filing Deadline for the 2026 primary. Is there a risk of high volatility due to a heavyweight surprise entry before this date?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: Deliberately search for bearish arguments against the current odds leader (e.g., Shenna Bellows). Could her controversial role in the Trump ballot eligibility case alienate moderate Democrats?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: Deliberately search for bearish arguments against the current odds leader (e.g., Shenna Bellows). Could her controversial role in the Trump ballot eligibility case alienate moderate Democrats?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Crypto] KOL Sentiment Analysis: Search Twitter or columns of Maine political journalists (e.g., Steve Mistler, Michael Shepherd) for their take on the primary field. Is there an undervalued 'dark horse'?

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Crypto] KOL Sentiment Analysis: Search Twitter or columns of Maine political journalists (e.g., Steve Mistler, Michael Shepherd) for their take on the primary field. Is there an undervalued 'dark horse'?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Institutional/Smart Money Tracking: Visit the Maine Ethics Commission website to query the fundraising status (Cash on Hand) of potential candidates. Who has the most substantial war chest?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Institutional/Smart Money Tracking: Visit the Maine Ethics Commission website to query the fundraising status (Cash on Hand) of potential candidates. Who has the most substantial war chest?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Analyze if Angus King III or Shenna Bellows are more likely to run for a Senate seat (if Susan Collins retires) instead of Governor. When will this 'domino effect' become clear?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Analyze if Angus King III or Shenna Bellows are more likely to run for a Senate seat (if Susan Collins retires) instead of Governor. When will this 'domino effect' become clear?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Given it's early before June 2026, evaluate the value of the 'Other' option. Are there high-profile Democrats (like Jared Golden) not listed who might jump in?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Given it's early before June 2026, evaluate the value of the 'Other' option. Are there high-profile Democrats (like Jared Golden) not listed who might jump in?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Order Book Depth & Slippage Assessment: Based on the $17k total volume, estimate the slippage for a $500 buy order on Angus King III or Troy Jackson. Is a market order viable?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Order Book Depth & Slippage Assessment: Based on the $17k total volume, estimate the slippage for a $500 buy order on Angus King III or Troy Jackson. Is a market order viable?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Historical Fractal Comparison: Search Maine's history of Open Seat gubernatorial primaries over the last 20 years. Do winners tend to be progressives or moderates? How does this impact the assessment of Nirav Shah (technocrat) vs. Shenna Bellows (progressive)?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Historical Fractal Comparison: Search Maine's history of Open Seat gubernatorial primaries over the last 20 years. Do winners tend to be progressives or moderates? How does this impact the assessment of Nirav Shah (technocrat) vs. Shenna Bellows (progressive)?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: Since resolution is in June 2026, analyze the capital efficiency of holding 'No' positions. Does shorting an unlikely candidate now offer a better yield than risk-free DeFi rates given the lock-up?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: Since resolution is in June 2026, analyze the capital efficiency of holding 'No' positions. Does shorting an unlikely candidate now offer a better yield than risk-free DeFi rates given the lock-up?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Low Liquidity] 'Stink Bid' Strategy: For low-volume options (like Jason Cherry or Hannah Pingree), suggest a price range for placing stink bids to catch potential panic selling or liquidity voids.

AI-powered analysis for: [Low Liquidity] 'Stink Bid' Strategy: For low-volume options (like Jason Cherry or Hannah Pingree), suggest a price range for placing stink bids to catch potential panic selling or liquidity voids.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Set hard stop-loss conditions. For example, if your candidate announces a run for Congress or reports less than $50,000 in quarterly fundraising, should you liquidate immediately?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Set hard stop-loss conditions. For example, if your candidate announces a run for Congress or reports less than $50,000 in quarterly fundraising, should you liquidate immediately?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate the required Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) to justify locking up $1000 until June 2026, comparing the potential win against the loss of liquidity.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate the required Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) to justify locking up $1000 until June 2026, comparing the potential win against the loss of liquidity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] High-Quality Niche Sources Recommendation: Recommend 3 high-quality Twitter accounts or Substacks dedicated to tracking Augusta, Maine politics for first-hand primary intel.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] High-Quality Niche Sources Recommendation: Recommend 3 high-quality Twitter accounts or Substacks dedicated to tracking Augusta, Maine politics for first-hand primary intel.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] One-Page Trading Plan Generation: Synthesize the above to create a brief trading plan. Include: top 1-2 value candidates, suggested entry Limit Price, and a contingency plan for black swan events like a 'Jared Golden entry'.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] One-Page Trading Plan Generation: Synthesize the above to create a brief trading plan. Include: top 1-2 value candidates, suggested entry Limit Price, and a contingency plan for black swan events like a 'Jared Golden entry'.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$25.4k Vol|

82 days 7 hrs

Maine Governor Democratic Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Troy Jackson

YesNo

44.5¢

55.5¢

12¢

88¢

0¢

+32.5¢

Nirav Shah

YesNo

27¢

73¢

42¢

58¢

+15¢

0¢

Angus King III

YesNo

11.75¢

88.25¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+10.8¢

Hannah Pingree

YesNo

22.5¢

77.5¢

20¢

80¢

0¢

+2.5¢

Jason Cherry

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.2¢

Shenna Bellows

YesNo

9.85¢

90.15¢

10¢

90¢

+0.2¢

0¢

Kenneth Pinet

YesNo

0.15¢

99.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.1¢

AI Insights:

03.03 17:50 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

The market's total implied probability is around 105%, indicating an overall premium. Nirav Shah, as the sole polling leader (35% support), trades closest to fundamentals (35.5c) and is arguably slightly undervalued. The significant distortion lies with Troy Jackson; the market prices him at 28c, far exceeding his single-digit polling (9%), representing a severe speculative overvaluation. Hannah Pingree commands a rich premium (26.5c) versus her polling (13%) due to fundraising, but is expensive. The crash in Angus King III to 2c reflects a market consensus of non-viability.

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Divergence

Significant divergence exists. Troy Jackson's market pricing (28c) implies a nearly 30% win probability, which is severely disconnected from the Hart Research poll showing him at only 9% support (4th place). The market appears to be ignoring polling data in favor of capital flows betting on potential momentum or insider information, whereas the price collapse of Angus King III aligns more closely with fundamental logic.

Maine Governor Democratic Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

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