April 18, 2026 (01:03) - April 18, 2026 (05:23), the price of '70-71°F' spiked from 2.4c to 23.4c (before retracing), and '76-77°F' fell from 30.5c to 18c. This was due to real-time temperature monitoring data rolling in at midnight, causing the market to aggressively re-evaluate probabilities based on initial readings. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of '74-75°F' surged from 13c to 42.5c, and '76-77°F' rose from 11c to 26c. This was due to weather models providing more precise timing on the cold front's arrival, confirming that Saturday's high would occur right at midnight and likely fall between 74°F and 77°F. Simultaneously, '72-73°F' dropped from 27.5c to around 18c, and lower ranges like '70-71°F' also saw probability declines, as the chance of an even earlier/faster front causing a cooler midnight starting point decreased.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of '84°F or higher' surged from 27.5c to a peak of 62.5c before settling at 46c, due to short-term meteorological models adjusting high-temperature expectations and increased volatility nearing expiration. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of '80-81°F' spiked from 9c to 29c, reflecting adjustments in probability distribution based on cooling trends in some forecasts. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: Lower temperature options like '72-73°F', '74-75°F', '76-77°F', and '78-79°F' experienced significant drops to below 10c, as forecasts essentially confirmed that the daily high will exceed 80°F.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The Yes price for 28°C surged from 27c to 44c, and 27°C recovered from a low of 12.5c to 29c. Simultaneously, 29°C plummeted from 32c to 17c, and 26°C dropped from 20c to 5.7c. This occurred because, as the date approached, weather forecast models became highly accurate, leading the market to lock in a narrow 27-28°C range and discard colder or hotter outlier scenarios.

Forecasting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a random day is a niche and typical novelty prediction market. While weather forecasting is a standard scientific endeavor, retail betting on a single-day, single-city temperature rounded to a whole degree introduces a quirky and slightly random dynamic.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of the 14°C option surged from 25c to 46c, while the 15°C option dropped from 31c to 20c. This occurred because, as the resolution date approached, weather models gained consensus and slightly downgraded the expected peak temperature closer to 57°F, cementing 14°C as the most likely outcome.

From April 16, 2026 to April 17, 2026, the price of the 10°C option plummeted from 12.5c to 0.7c, as increased certainty in the weather forecast ruled out this extremely low temperature. From April 16, 2026 to April 17, 2026, the price of the 11°C option fell from 18.5c to 2.5c, similarly due to forecast models converging away from this low-temperature range. From April 16, 2026 to April 17, 2026, the price of the 12°C option dropped from 25.5c to 14.5c, reflecting expectations for a slightly warmer peak temperature. From April 16, 2026 to April 17, 2026, the price of the 16°C option decreased from 20.5c to 1.35c, indicating that this higher temperature range was also ruled out.