What are the exact resolution rules for the Istanbul temperature market, specifically regarding how NOAA data is finalized and the whole-degree Celsius precision rule (Explain Like I'm 5)?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the exact resolution rules for the Istanbul temperature market, specifically regarding how NOAA data is finalized and the whole-degree Celsius precision rule (Explain Like I'm 5)?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on professional meteorological models (like GFS or ECMWF), how predictable is Istanbul's highest temperature on April 10, and which temperature range do current forecasts support?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on professional meteorological models (like GFS or ECMWF), how predictable is Istanbul's highest temperature on April 10, and which temperature range do current forecasts support?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

When trading this temperature market, what specific weather forecast shift (e.g., NOAA's hourly projections for LTFM dropping out of the target bracket) should be set as an immediate stop-loss red line?

AI-powered analysis for: When trading this temperature market, what specific weather forecast shift (e.g., NOAA's hourly projections for LTFM dropping out of the target bracket) should be set as an immediate stop-loss red line?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 10?

Weather|$13.4k Vol|

11 hrs 26 mins

Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 10? - AI Found +19.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.09 10:09

Top Undervalued

+19.5¢

8°C(Yes)

+17.5¢

10°C(No)

+5¢

7°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 10? AI analysis: • +19.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest ECMWF and GFS weather models, persistent cold air and rain are expected to keep ...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

8°C

YesNo

5.5¢

94.5¢

25¢

75¢

+19.5¢

0¢

10°C

YesNo

42.5¢

57.5¢

25¢

75¢

0¢

+17.5¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a niche weather betting market. While not completely bizarre, the general public does not typically think about or bet on exact temperature ranges for a specific date.

Movers

Between Apr 6 and Apr 9, 2026, prices for 11°C, 12°C, and 13°C or higher dropped significantly (e.g., 13°C or higher fell from 27.5c to ~1c), while prices for 8°C and 9°C surged (9°C soared from 13.5c to 37.5c). The reason is that updated forecasts confirmed persistent cold air and rain on April 10, drastically lowering the expected high to the 8-10°C range. Between Apr 7, 04:40 and 19:50, the price of 9°C surged from 14c to 29.5c as updated weather forecasts adjusted the expected high temperature down. Between Apr 6, 14:35 and Apr 7, 19:50, the price of 13°C or higher plummeted from 27.5c to 8.5c due to cooling trends making higher temperatures highly unlikely.