This is a highly specific daily local weather prediction. Aside from local residents or prediction market traders, ordinary people would absolutely not care about the highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu Airport on a random day in April, making it quite a novelty market.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 24°C option fluctuated and rose from 22c to 31.5c, while the 25°C option plummeted from 44c to 21.5c before rebounding to 32c. This was due to slight adjustments in weather forecast models as the settlement date approached, causing the market to reassess probabilities between 24°C and 25°C.

The implied probability for 25°C (32%) remains the highest in the current prediction market, but multiple mainstream weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature on April 14 will be around 23°C or 24°C. This divergence is likely due to market participants not having fully priced in the latest meteorological updates.

Forecasting the exact maximum temperature of a specific city on a given day is niche and somewhat random for the general public, though it is a standard daily instrument in prediction markets (especially weather derivatives). It is a specialized but routine market.

Between April 12 and April 13, 2026, the price for the 21°C option surged from 19c to 37c, and the 22°C option rose from 9c to 22.5c, while the 20°C option dropped from 35.5c to 25.5c. This is because, as the date approaches, updated weather models slightly revised the forecasted high temperature towards the 21°C-22°C range, prompting a reallocation of funds.

This is a highly niche and trivial topic. The general public and mainstream media would never naturally wonder or predict the exact number of times the White House account tweets in a specific week. It is a purely manufactured betting market for high-frequency trading.

April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 200+ option plummeted from 36.5c to 4.5c, because as weekend data accumulated, the posting rate stabilized, significantly reducing the likelihood of reaching an extremely high total (200+). April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged from 12c to 26.5c (later falling to 23c), because as the 200+ probability dropped, some of those extreme expectations shifted to this second-highest range. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option plummeted from 43c to 28c, because the actual rate leaned slightly towards higher ranges (160-179), further compressing the probability of this upper-middle range. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option plummeted from 28c to 5.5c, as the high posting frequency caused a sharp drop in the probability of landing in this relatively lower tier. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option plummeted from 25.5c to 1.45c, because the high frequency of tweets from the White House makes it highly likely that the total will exceed this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option plummeted from 25.5c to 6.5c, also due to the high tweet frequency causing a sharp drop in the probability of this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 20-39 option plummeted from 18.5c to 0.05c, because the total number of tweets has already far exceeded this range. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 60-79 option plummeted from 18.5c to 0.2c, because the total number of tweets has already exceeded this range.

The title simply says 'tweets', but the rules explicitly exclude standard 'replies', which make up a massive portion of Musk's activity, creating a counter-intuitive pitfall. Additionally, resolution relies heavily on a specific custom tracker (xtracker), introducing technical risks of missed counts or downtime, especially for deleted posts.

This is a highly typical long-tail novelty market. Outside of prediction market degens, nobody naturally contemplates or calculates the exact number of times a specific celebrity posts on social media during a random week. It is purely for entertainment.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the '280-299' option plummeted from 21.5c to 5.25c, because a further acceleration in posting volumes meant projected totals are likely to breach this bracket. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the '300-319' option surged from 6.5c to 18c, as a sharp increase in Musk's posting frequency made this range one of the most probable outcomes. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the '320-339' option surged from 3.1c to 15.5c, as recent high-frequency posting sharply increased the probability of higher ranges. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the '340-359' option surged from 1.2c to 14.4c, as the substantially increased posting speed shifted market expectations into this range and higher. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the '360-379' option surged from 0.85c to 13.75c, as the ongoing trend of high-frequency posts pushed up the likelihood of finishing in higher ranges. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the '260-279' option plummeted from 25.5c to 3.45c, as a sharp increase in Musk's posting frequency made it highly likely this range would be surpassed. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the '240-259' option plummeted from 32.5c to 3.8c, as a noticeable increase in posting frequency over the weekend drastically reduced the likelihood of hitting this range. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the '280-299' option surged from 11.5c to 21.5c, due to a significant increase in real-time posts, shifting the projected total into higher brackets. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the '220-239' option fell from 19.5c to 6.5c, because the real-time tracking indicated an increased posting rate, reducing the probability of finishing in lower ranges. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the '240-259' option surged from 22.5c to 32.5c, as the accumulation of real-time tracking data caused market expectations to heavily concentrate in this range through linear extrapolation. April 7, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the '220-239' option rose from 9.5c to around 19.5c, as tracking data indicated a slightly lower posting frequency than initially expected, causing a leftward shift in the distribution.

Predicting the exact numerical bucket of posts a politician makes on a specific social media platform over a single week is highly granular and mostly functions as a degenerate betting market rather than a topic of serious mainstream interest.

April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026: The 60-79 bracket dropped from 18.5c to 2.35c. This was caused by the continuous release of actual posting data over the first couple of days, where the pace made reaching such a low total highly unlikely, prompting a rapid capital exit. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026: The 140-159 bracket plunged from 12.15c to 2.2c. This was caused by the release of the first day's actual posting data, making a very high total unlikely and triggering a sell-off. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026: The 60-79 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 11c, the 120-139 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 15c, and the 140-159 bracket plunged from 26.5c to 4.5c. This is because multiple brackets initially shared an anomalously identical price (26.5c) due to early illiquidity. As market makers and traders stepped in, a clearer consensus formed around the 80-119 range, causing outlier brackets to correct sharply downwards. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026: The 80-99 bracket surged from 30c to 42.5c, before settling back to around 35c on the 10th. This movement reflects an initial strong consensus on this median range, which later saw some capital shift towards adjacent high-probability brackets like 100-119 as the tracking period approached.