Resolution relies heavily on a specific official Polymarket tracker rather than raw X (Twitter) displays. The inclusion of edge cases like 'quickly deleted tweets' and 'replies on the main feed' makes it highly likely that tracker data will deviate from manual counts, creating a moderate risk of resolution disputes.

Predicting the exact number of tweets a politician will make in a random week is highly trivial and exotic. Ordinary people would never contemplate or care about the answer to this question before seeing the market, making it a typical novelty betting topic.

April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026: The price of the 80-99 bracket surged from 34c to around 58c, while the 100-119 bracket dropped from 26c to 14c, and the 60-79 bracket also saw an uptick. This occurred because, as the settlement date approaches, the latest posting rate further confirmed a low probability of exceeding 100 posts, accelerating the concentration of capital into the core 60-99 ranges. April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026: High-frequency posting buckets like 160-179 and 180-199 plummeted from around 30c to 3c, and the 100-119 bucket retreated from 54c to around 25c. The reason is that as the tracking period progressed, the actual posting pace became clear, causing the market to price out the tail scenarios of >120 total posts and concentrate capital into the core 60-99 range. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026: Multiple buckets experienced severe volatility; 100-119 rose from 40c to 54c before falling back to 25.5c, 80-99 increased from 35c to 48.5c then dropped to 31c, while higher buckets like 120-139 plummeted from 30c-40c to around 3c. The actual posting pace was lower than initial high expectations, leading the market to drastically downgrade the upper bound of the forecasted total posts. March 28, 2026 - March 31, 2026: The 'Yes' prices of most non-core buckets (e.g., 140-159, 160-179, 200+, 40-59) plummeted from around 40c to between 5c and 18c due to extremely poor early liquidity and severe mispricing (sum of all Yes probabilities once exceeded 400%). As arbitrage capital entered, the mispricing was rapidly corrected.

Predicting the exact frequency of social media posts by a government account over a week is a highly specific novelty market that ordinary people rarely consider or track.

April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026: The price of the '200+' option crashed from roughly 80c down to around 30c, as the actual posting frequency of the White House account slowed noticeably, drastically cooling expectations of exceeding 200 posts. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026: The price of the '180-199' option surged from 20.5c to 55c, as the slowing post rate caused the market to recalculate and determine that the final total is highly likely to land in this range, prompting a massive shift of funds. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026: The price of the '160-179' option rebounded from 4.5c to 16c, reflecting a small probability that the total could fall into this range if weekend posting slows even further. April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026: The price of the '200+' option surged from 16.85c to a high of 55c (then ~54.75c), as the actual posting frequency of the White House account rose sharply, drastically increasing expectations of the total exceeding 200 posts. April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026: The price of the '160-179' option crashed from 52c to 15.5c, because the high posting frequency made this range appear too conservative, prompting a rapid exit of funds. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026: The prices of the '120-139' and '140-159' options crashed from 31c and 29c down to 5c and 9.5c respectively, due to the actual first-day tweet data tracking significantly higher than initially expected, making these lower ranges highly unlikely. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026: The price of the '160-179' option surged from 28c to a peak of 63.5c, as the monitoring period began and traders observed the White House account maintaining a higher daily posting frequency, shifting the expected center upwards. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026: The price of the '180-199' option rose from 18.5c to 39.5c before retreating slightly, reflecting a temporary market repricing towards higher posting frequencies.

April 3, 2026 20:30 - April 4, 2026 05:10, the price of the '<35m' option plummeted from 64c to 33c, while '35-38m' surged from 27c to 44.5c (before settling at 37c), and '38-41m' rose from 7.5c to 17.5c. This was driven by Friday's preliminary box office estimates exceeding expectations, showing 'Project Hail Mary' holding up better than anticipated against stiff competition, leading the market to sharply correct its sub-$35M projections. April 1, 2026 23:00 - April 2, 2026 20:40, the price of the '<35m' option experienced extreme volatility, dropping from 57.5c to 45c before rebounding to 62.5c. The reason is the market was digesting the newly released weekend theater counts, leading to intensified friction between bulls and bears. April 1, 2026 10:05 - April 1, 2026 12:15, the price of the '<35m' option surged from 50.5c to 70c, while the higher box office brackets (35-38m, 38-41m, and >41m) plummeted by roughly 20c to 25c. This sudden shift was driven by updated weekend projections showing that new massive competing releases will heavily cannibalize 'Project Hail Mary's screen count and audience share.