The rules explicitly exclude standard replies but include those on the main feed, and count deleted posts if captured by the tracker. Resolution heavily relies on Polymarket's custom tracker (xtracker), meaning API latency, downtime, or discrepancies with X's actual display could easily trigger disputes.

Predicting the exact tweet count of a specific crypto figure during a specific week is highly niche and random. It represents a classic novelty market that the general public would never organically think about.

May 11, 2026 - May 13, 2026: The price of the '<20' option surged from 56.5c to 98.35c, while the '20-39' option plummeted from 30c to 1.65c. This is because, as the settlement date is imminent, CZ's posting volume remains extremely low, and the market is almost certain the total will be under 20. May 9, 2026 - May 11, 2026: The price of the '<20' option continued to surge from 35c to 53.5c, while the '20-39' option plummeted from 51c to 18c. This was because, with the observation period more than halfway over, CZ's actual post count remained extremely low, making the market highly confident that the total will fall below 20. May 8, 2026 - May 9, 2026: The price of the '20-39' option plummeted from 90c to 50.5c, while the '<20' option surged from 5.5c to 37.5c. This was due to the accumulation of observation period data showing CZ's actual posting frequency was lower than the market's initial high expectations, leading to a massive downward revision of his estimated total posts. May 5, 2026 - May 8, 2026: The price of the '20-39' option surged from 25.5c to a peak of 77.5c before settling at 60.5c. Concurrently, the '<20' option fluctuated, rising to 33.5c before dropping to 22c. This was driven by the opening of the observation window, causing the market to quickly adjust expectations based on early posting frequency.

The market relies strictly on a custom Polymarket Tracker. While standard replies are excluded, rules state they count if the tracker records them on the main feed. Also, deleted posts count if they survive long enough (~5 mins) to be scraped. This heavy reliance on a third-party tool's technical quirks can lead to discrepancies between the resolution source and what users manually count on X.

This is a classic novelty/trivia market driven by attention economy. Outside of prediction market degens, no one naturally ponders or attempts to forecast the exact number of tweets a specific politician will make in a random upcoming week, making the subject highly niche and unusual.

May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026: The price of the '120-139' option surged from 39c to 60c, while '100-119' fluctuated wildly (dropping to 20.5c) and '140-159' retreated to 10c. This occurred because, as the resolution date approaches, the accumulated post count makes it highly likely to lock in the 120-139 bracket, accelerating the convergence of market expectations. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026: The '100-119' option plummeted from 43c to 6c, while '140-159' surged from 8.5c to 29c, and '180-199' jumped from 2c to 18.45c. This reflects a major spike in Ted Cruz's posting frequency over the last 24 hours, causing the market to rapidly revise its projections upward. May 8, 2026 - May 11, 2026: Multiple options experienced >10c volatility. '80-99' dropped from 35c to 5c, '140-159' fell from roughly 40c to 12c, and '160-179' plummeted from 39c to 4c before bouncing back to 13c. Meanwhile, '120-139' and '100-119' peaked above 40c before settling near 26c. This indicates that as more real-time posting data is tracked over the first weekend, the market constantly recalibrates Ted Cruz's daily pace, stabilizing expectations around the 100-139 range while keeping an eye on higher-frequency brackets. May 5, 2026 - May 8, 2026: Multiple options experienced >10c shifts. The '40-59' bucket plummeted from 25c to 0.3c, while '140-159' and '160-179' surged from roughly 25c to ~39c. This occurred because the official counting period started on May 8, prompting traders to rapidly reallocate from low-count to high-count brackets based on recent activity.

The rules rely heavily on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) and have nuanced conditions for deleted tweets (must survive ~5 mins) and replies. This introduces the risk of discrepancies between manual counting and tracker data, as well as potential API downtime.

The general public absolutely does not care about or track the exact weekly tweet count of a government social media account. This is a classic novelty market artificially manufactured purely for prediction market speculators.

May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of the '180-199' option surged from 51c to 69.5c, while '160-179' fell from 49c to 16.5c. This is because with just over 1 day until settlement, the current tweet count makes it highly probable to land in the 180-199 range, driving capital concentration there. May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the price of the '200+' option plummeted from 36.5c to 3.9c, and the '180-199' option surged from 40.5c to 59c. This was due to a slight decline in the White House account's posting frequency over the past two days, leading the market to confirm that the final total is unlikely to break the 200 mark, causing funds to concentrate in the 180-199 range. May 9, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of the '200+' option rose from 17c to 27.5c, and '140-159' fell from 12.5c to 2.5c. This is due to the White House account maintaining an extremely high posting frequency, significantly increasing the probability of reaching the highest ranges and clearing out lower-tier options. May 8, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of the '200+' option surged from 9c to 30.5c, and the '180-199' option rose from 25.5c to 38.5c. This was due to the White House account maintaining an extremely high posting frequency over the weekend, significantly increasing the probability of reaching the higher ranges. May 8, 2026 - May 9, 2026, the price of the '160-179' option rose from 34.5c to 42.5c, and the '200+' option rose from 18c to 28c. This is because the actual posting frequency increased the probability of higher frequency ranges, causing market funds to concentrate in the higher ranges. May 6, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the price of the '120-139' option plummeted from 22c to 9.5c, and the '200+' option fell from 31.5c to 9c. This is because as time progresses, the actual posting frequency stabilized in a higher median range (e.g., 160-199), causing the market to sell off overly low or extreme options.

Resolution primarily relies on a third-party tracker (xtracker) and involves technical nuances like whether 'replies appear on the main feed' and if deleted posts survive for more than ~5 minutes. These technical definitions may deviate from intuitive manual counting on Truth Social, creating a moderate rule trap.

Predicting the exact number of posts a politician makes in a specific week is a classic niche novelty topic. The general public usually doesn't care about such hyper-granular data, although it is relatively common among political prediction market participants.

May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, as Trump's posting frequency significantly slowed down, the '200+' option plummeted from 71c to 27.35c (currently ~38.75c), with market expectations for crossing 200 cooling drastically; meanwhile, the '180-199' range surged from 26.65c to 49.45c, becoming the new frontrunner. May 13, 2026 - May 13, 2026, as Trump's posting frequency appeared to slow down slightly, the '200+' option retreated from a high of 74.4c to around 54.75c, reflecting decreased certainty that the total will reach 200+. May 11, 2026 - May 13, 2026, driven by an explosive increase in Trump's posting volume and the shortening of remaining time, the '200+' option skyrocketed from around 6.9c to a high of 74.4c (now stable around 68c), and '180-199' surged from 6.5c to 35c before settling near 26c. Simultaneously, '140-159' plummeted from 29.5c to 0.05c (near zero), and '160-179' dropped from 18c to 1.85c. This occurred because real-time tracking data far exceeded earlier market expectations, significantly reducing uncertainty as the resolution approaches. Between May 10 and May 11, 2026, due to a significant acceleration in Trump's posting speed, market expectations for the total post count shifted sharply higher. The '140-159' option rose from 23.5c to 34c, and '160-179' rebounded from 16.5c to 26c; meanwhile, the '100-119' option dropped sharply from 16.5c to 4.5c (before rebounding to 10c), indicating that lower total expectations were quickly adjusted. Between May 9 and May 10, 2026, as Trump's posting frequency picked up, market expectations were revised upwards. The '140-159' option rebounded from 11c to 23.5c, and '160-179' recovered from 7c to 17c. Meanwhile, '100-119' peaked at 26.5c on May 9 before retreating to 17.5c, showing a recalibration of the 7-day total based on the latest posting speed. Between May 8 and May 9, 2026, as Trump's posting frequency on the first day of the tracking period was significantly lower than his recent norm, multiple high-frequency options (140-159, 160-179, 200+) plummeted to below 10c after briefly spiking to around 30c on May 8. Simultaneously, mid-to-low frequency options surged, with '60-79' jumping from ~2c to 15c, showing a sharp downward revision of total expected posts based on real-time data. Between May 7 and May 8, 2026, the '80-99' option crashed from 28.5c to 7.5c, while the '120-139' option spiked from 17c to 30c before falling back to 20.5c, driven by expectation adjustments as the start date approached and exacerbated by low liquidity. Between May 5 and May 6, 2026, several low-frequency options (e.g., <20, 20-39, 40-59, 60-79) plummeted from around 25c. This occurred because early market illiquidity, which uniformly priced all options, was corrected as traders priced in Trump's true, highly active posting habits.

The market rules contain notable nuances: it counts main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts, but excludes normal replies. However, replies on the main feed are counted by the tracker. Furthermore, deleted posts are counted if they remain available long enough to be captured (~5 minutes). X itself acts as a secondary source if the tracker fails. These specific definitions and potential tracker discrepancies present a moderate risk.

While betting on Elon Musk's actions is somewhat common in prediction markets, predicting the exact number of tweets he makes within a specific one-week timeframe is highly trivial and novel. Few people would naturally ponder this exact number.

May 12, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the 100-119 bracket climbed from 33.45c to 50.15c, the 120-139 bracket bounced from 19.65c to 38.75c, while the 140-159 bracket fell from 11.5c to 7.15c. The reason is that as the expiration date approaches, the latest tweet tracking data indicates the final count will almost certainly fall between 100 and 139, prompting the market to completely price out the extremely low and high brackets. May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the 100-119 bracket climbed from 27.45c to 52.75c, the 120-139 bracket bounced to 38c before settling at 22.1c, while the 80-99 bracket plummeted from a peak of 35.05c to 15.75c. The reason is that Musk's posting speed accelerated, prompting the market to correct its expectation of an extremely low final count. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the market experienced sharp volatility followed by a correction due to changing tweet pacing: the 120-139 bracket bounced back after crashing to 15.7c, the 140-159 bracket dropped from 16.5c to 5.5c, while the 80-99 bracket surged to 27.9c. The reason is that Musk's posting speed fluctuated after a brief slump, prompting the market to constantly correct final count expectations. May 9, 2026 - May 11, 2026, the 100-119 bracket skyrocketed from ~4.9c to 29.4c, and the 80-99 bracket surged from 1.15c to 9c, while the 140-159 bracket dropped from 29.5c to 16.5c. This was caused by real-time tracker data indicating an extremely sluggish posting rate from Musk, prompting the market to heavily downgrade the expected final tweet count. May 8, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the 120-139 bracket soared from ~7.45c to 19.95c, the 100-119 bracket rose from 3.15c to 5.75c, and the 140-159 bracket climbed from 17.5c to 31.5c. This is due to real-time tracking data confirming a lower tweet pace for Musk, leading the market to upgrade the probability of the lower buckets. May 6, 2026 - May 9, 2026, the price of the 140-159 bracket surged consistently to 29.5c, and the 160-179 bracket remained high above 20c. The reason is that real-time tracking data indicated Musk's posting frequency is at a moderate pace.